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Dave Swan's fantasy baseball buy low and sell high candidates for Week 5 of the 2021 season. He recommends MLB risers and fallers to target or deal away in trades.
Sometimes fantasy baseball can resemble the stock market. You want the best portfolio of players without having to pay too much for them. Sometimes to achieve the optimal team, you need to make trades. The best way to gain added value is to trade away an over-performing player for one in a rut. This way, you reap the benefits of a stud player hitting their stride as you get to watch the other person look for answers. The tricky part is assessing which players are trending which way.
We don't have a ton of data to reference on the 2021 season, as many of the underlying metrics still need more time to stabilize before we can make exact assumptions. However, we can look at a player's track record and performance in this early season.
This will be a weekly piece that drops every Thursday for your assistance. If you like it, follow me on Twitter @davithius to send me a note, suggest other players you're not sure about, or if you want to chat about baseball. I am always happy and willing to answer questions.
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Trade Targets to Acquire
Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds
Luis Castillo is a bona-fide ace that is struggling mightily to begin the year. His 6.29 ERA and 1.60 WHIP are enough to make a fantasy owner cry that they drafted him in the first three rounds through five starts. However, it's not as bad as the surface stats indicate. You need to look past those numbers and focus on a few others.
First, Castillo's ground ball rate is 54.5%, which is right in line with the career 53%. Nothing has changed there. Next, there is some positive regression coming his way. His left on-base%(LOB%) is way down. Typically, Castillo's LOB% hovers around 73% of base runners-yet another indication of poor luck. Also, his HR/FB ballooned to nearly 25%. While this stat can fluctuate depending on sample size, it's very high compared to his career mark (17.6%).
Even behind all that, his 6.29 ERA shows he may have been rather unfortunate because he carries a 4.60 ERA, 4.07 xFIP, and 4.21 SIERA. Those stats are also a little higher than we are used to for Castillo. He is far too superior of an SP to continue being this bad, given the underlying stats. Grab him before things normalize.
Zach Plesac, Cleveland Indians
Much like Castillo, Plesac has looked dreadful this year. He tries to hide a 5.81 ERA in his first five starts. Again, like Castillo, the product has not been as bad as the results indicate. Nabbing a high-performing SP at 30 cents on the dollar could be a huge boost if timed correctly. Now is that time, and here's why.
Remember that LOB%? Plesac also has a 55.1% stat line that should normalize to his favor soon. The reason for it being so low is the gaudy 1.37 HR/9. While Plesac has some bad history with giving up the long ball, it's only weighing on his stats so vastly because the season is so fresh.
Right back to the well we go, look at his xFIP(3.85) and SIERA(3.99). These are metrics that help point out how a pitcher is performing beyond the outcome. Both show that his ERA is not truly earned. He should be performing much better. If he can continue to pound the zone with strikes, not give up the HRs, and continue to keep the walks at an elite level, it'll be a great 2021 season in the end.
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves
Austin Riley is a player I gush about to most people. He just hasn't had that massive breakout that people are expecting yet. That is going to change this year. The reason I fell in love with Austin Riley is that he makes so much loud contact. In his previous two seasons, he posted a barrel% over 10%, and barrels are a big indicator for predicting HRs.
The biggest draw to Riley's game is he strikes out way too much(29.9% career K-rate), and it's not that he missed in the zone. It's that he chases too many pitches. Well, feast your eyes on the chart below.
After a rough start, Riley stopped chasing those pitches and his production has skyrocketed. Since adjusting, Riley has parked three balls into the stands and the batting average is soaring. His strikeout rate has dropped from 36.4%(2019) to 23.8%(2020), and now 22.4%. For reference, the MLB average is 21.9%. Adjustments are being made, and growth at the plate is there. Trade for him now before it is too late!
Trade Targets to Move
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
Likely, someone didn't draft Jake Arrieta. He was bad in 2020 and looked washed up. So far in 2021, Arrieta has been a serviceable streaming option with big results. Now is the time to move him or grab him from your waiver wire and trade to someone with a suspect starting pitching.
Look at his 2.57 ERA. That's a good mark, but it's all smoke and mirrors. Those underlying metrics suggest a bit of luck was in his favor. Behind the ERA, he has a 4.45 SIERA, 4.63 FIP, and 4.08 ERA. xERA is a fairly new stat. It uses only StatCast data to compile an ERA. So if players are walloping the pitcher but the results are good, his xERA will be higher than the player's ERA. Yep, Arrieta has all these indicators saying it's time to sell.
More of these metrics are going in the opposite direction. His GB% is at 35.4%, and the LOB% is nearly 84 percent. Arrieta has managed to skate around these numbers, which should regress soon, by striking out nearly 22% of batters. His game logs show he's faced the Pirates (twice), Brewers (twice), and Mets. All of these teams have struggled against RHP to start the season. Arrieta's next start is on Friday. I would try to move him before then.
Joey Wendle, Tampa Bay Rays
Joey Wendle is a terrific baseball player, but not so much for fantasy baseball. Wendle's career slash line is .280/.333/.411 with a .744 OPS. Those are not entirely pedestrian numbers and he plays so many positions that the Rays use him everywhere. The position eligibility can help the return when dealing away pedestrian numbers.
Batting average is a very tricky category to find. The MLB batting average continues to tumble year after year. So when someone with a career .280 batting average is at .316, we have to take note. The place I start is by looking at their BABIP, which is a stat you gauge based on their career number. In Wendle's case, his career BABIP is .328. His 2021 BABIP is much higher(.368). What this means is as time goes on, it's likely that Wendle regresses to his career normalcy. That will cause the batting average to come down as well.
Right now, Wendle looks like he is riding a heater. The best time to trade players is at their peak. Wendle is a solid baseball player, but he is playing over his head. I would gladly move him for Austin Riley and let someone else take the cold regression coming for Wendle.
Michael A. Taylor, Kansas City Royals
Let's not get cute. You didn't draft Michael Taylor either. In fact, he is only rostered on 19% of Yahoo leagues. For those that don't know him too well, Taylor is an outfielder acquired by the Royals. His draw is decent speed that makes him enticing for fantasy leagues.
In 23 games, Taylor has already swiped three bags and hit two home runs while batting .270. For any 5x5 league, that is a very playable outfielder, especially in five OF leagues. Taylor touts a 28.5 ft/sec sprint speed, which puts him in the 91st percentile in that category. He uses that speed to swipe a few bags, From 2017-2019, he stole 41 bases.
I would try and bundle Taylor with a middle-of-the-road SP on my team for one of the trade targets listed above, especially one that neglected to draft speed in the draft. Much like Wendle, his career BABIP is .327, and his current BABIP is .346. The batting average could tumble another 20 points. It's time to squeeze the little bit of value you can get out of Taylor before he turns back into a pumpkin.
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