RADIO
There is a whole lot of good action tonight with 28 teams playing in the Main slate and a bevy of excellent ace pitchers to choose from. The Cubs are playing their usual Friday afternoon matinee against the cross-town rival White Sox, but I'll be leaving them out of the discussion here to focus on the monster night slate.
As we have so many aces and top-tier pitchers throwing tonight, it's not too surprising that the run projections I am seeing in Vegas right now aren't too appealing from a "should I stack this team?" standpoint. Just two teams - the Indians (5.3) and the Mariners (5.1) have run projections north of five. Some early action this morning has bumped up the Astros and Red Sox slightly, both at 5.0. As for moneyline favorites, the Astros are up top at (-250), followed by the Indians (-235), Dodgers (-215) and Red Sox (-200).
In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 5/11/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.
FanDuel DFS Pitchers
Max Scherzer - SP, at ARI ($11,700)
Trying to decide between Mad Max, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander (in my opinion - and I'm certainly not going out in a limb here - the three best going tonight) is a little like splitting hairs. Ever so slightly, Scherzer has been the best of the three this season, posting a 40% K rate to pair with a 2.22 SIERA. Both of those figures edge out Sale and Verlander this season and since strikeouts and limiting damage are the name of the game on FanDuel, he's my number one tonight. Additionally, the Diamondbacks have been completely bottom of the barrel against right-handed pitching this season. They've struck out in 25% of their at-bats, and the .375 slugging percentage and 88 wRC+ certainly isn't very threatening. And last, but not least, he leads the slate in projected opponent runs (3.1) and is a big moneyline favorite as well at -184.
Tyler Skaggs - SP, vs MIN ($8,200)
Skaggs is in a pretty opportune spot tonight and is my favorite GPP-only pitching option (guys like Verlander and Scherzer can be used in cash or GPP's). The talented southpaw has been pitching very well of late, has pretty big strikeout upside (7, 7, 8 in last 3 games, 8.4 K/9 this season) and faces a team loaded with lefty batters. He should be able to neutrilize them pretty well, and he's been excellent at limiting hard contact, allowing just 22% over his last two starts and only allowed 30% fly balls in that stretch.
Also Consider: Justin Verlander - SP, vs TEX ($11,300)
FanDuel DFS Infielders
Cody Bellinger - 1B, vs CIN ($3,700)
There may be some fireworks in the Los Angeles area tonight thanks to new Red Matt Harvey. Harvey has been smoked in his last few starts, allowing an average batted ball distance of 255 feet and an average exit velocity of 96 miles per hour. Figured I'd introduce that now in the case you see several Dodgers listed here (or just want to stack them). Bellinger got off to a slow start this season, but the bat seems to be coming alive and he's making good, hard contact (41% last 15 days) and he brings a .380 wOBA and .270 ISO split to the table.
Jason Kipnis - 2B, vs KCR ($2,600)
I love the value here with this price tag and the way Kipnis has been making a lot of hard contact of late (45% last 13 games). He has great lineup context tonight hitting in the two spot for the team with the highest projected run total and Jason Hammel is certainly a pitcher we can pick on. Kipnis currently has a .402 slugging percentage this year and while that wont blow anyone away, the matchup is too good to pass on in cash games for me.
Anthony Rendon - 3B, at ARI ($3,600)
Rendon is back and looking healthy. The big man gets a park upgrade today, faces an exploitable pitcher, and certainly finds himself in great lineup context with this potent offense. Over the past year, he's had really strong splits against right-handed pitching as well, posting a .389 wOBA and a .206 ISO.
Jean Segura - SS, at DET ($3,400)
The shortstop options today are pretty plentiful and a lot of the best bats in that group have good matchups - and are priced-up appropriately. In the mid-range, I like Segura quite a bit. His wOBA splits against southpaws are nearly 100 points higher than against right-handers, and while he doesn't have much power, he is a stolen base threat and that adds to his appeal. He's also been making pretty good hard contact in his last 15 days, and batted ball data tells us he's been quite unlucky in that stretch.
FanDuel DFS Outfielders
Joc Pederson - OF, vs LAD ($2,400)
Joc is a super value tonight in a real good matchup with strong lineup context. On a night where it makes a lot of sense to pay up at pitching, this is pretty ideal. Pederson has big split differentials, and is much stronger against righties. He brings a solid .349 wOBA to the plate and the big appeal is in his power, showcased by a .209 ISO split.
Domingo Santana - OF, at COL ($3,100)
There should be a lot of offensive action today in Coors with two pretty strong lineups and pitchers that are, let's say, less than average. Santana is probably the best value of the group and he brings home run upside thanks to his .200 ISO split and his recent batted ball data showing a 50% hard hit rate in his last 10 games.
Bryce Harper - OF, at ARI ($4,700)
Harper with against a subpar pitcher, getting a park upgrade and priced under 5K? I am all-in for tournaments. He is certainly cash safe, but I say that because pitching is really steep tonight and pairing Harper with Scherzer or Verlander would leave you without much room to build a healthy roster. Anywho, Harper and his .267 ISO and .541 slugging percentage should fare pretty well tonight - and I think he could go overlooked as well.
