RADIO
Week 14 ended on a dramatic note with Lamar Jackson's WWE-style return to action that surely tilted many fantasy matchups. To those of you still in the hunt for glory, we salute you. With our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Budget (FAB). In case you were not aware, several fantasy sports platforms are switching from FAAB to FAB in 2020, and RotoBaller will make that change as well.
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player. Specific needs are always reasonable cause for a manual override.
There are no more bye weeks and hopefully no additional COVID-19 outbreaks. Let's get those championships as we look to my median FAB bid ranges and adds heading into Week 15, with Yahoo rostership rates from Monday night.
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FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (QB, PHI) - FAB Bid: 5-10%
17% rostered
Hurts led the Eagles to a 24-21 upset over the Saints in his first NFL start, making the most of his rushing potential with 106 ground yards. He only completed 17-of-30 passes for 167 yards and a TD but the running makes him a top-12 QB just as folks flocked to Taysom Hill. He’s been announced as the Week 15 starter at Arizona and then would draw a healthy matchup against the Cowboys in Week 16 and Washington in Week 17. One of the more fascinating stats from his game relates to handling the heat:
Jalen Hurts was pressured 14 times on Sunday.
On those, the Eagles gained 82 yards and took 0 negative plays.
— Paul Hembekides (@PaulHembo) December 14, 2020
Andy Dalton (QB, DAL) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
15% rostered
Dalton played well against his old team, going 16-for-23 with 185 yards and two TDs as the Cowboys demolished the Bengals. You’re not playing the Red Rifle for huge upside, but he’s put up modest totals in the 16-20 range lately while averaging two TDs per game after the Week 10 bye. Week 15 against the 49ers may demand more of him given Dallas’ poor run defense against San Fran’s ground-and-pound attack. I don’t dare to pivot towards Nick Mullens (5% rostered) on the other side of the ball.
Mitchell Trubisky (QB, CHI) - FAB Bid: 1-2%
13% rostered
Trubisky’s second three-TD game of the past three weeks helped Chicago to its first victory since back in Week 6. The Texans don’t look great on defense but Mitch still converted on opportunities and has locked onto Allen Robinson II of late. A divisional showdown with Minnesota looms and those living the stream life could do worse than a mobile arm with confidence.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Running Backs
Jeff Wilson Jr. (RB, SF) - FAB Bid: 50-100%
14% rostered
Wilson totaled 44 yards and a touchdown on 12 touches as the 1B to Raheem Mostert’s 1A (14-65-0, 2-5 receiving). With reports that Jerick McKinnon is eased off after his earlier heavy workload and Tevin Coleman a non-factor, Wilson is a respectable flex play in this run-heavy offense -- especially with Deebo Samuel’s injury further hindering the passing game.
Update: Raheem Mostert received an MRI on his previously-sprained ankle and may miss time.
Lynn Bowden Jr. (RB/WR, MIA) - FAB Bid: 25-50%
1% rostered
Bowden is a receiver but eligible at both RB and WR on Yahoo so we’re rolling with the more relevant slot. The rookie’s nine targets were tied with Mack Hollins for the team lead, while the seven catches and 82 receiving yards were team-high marks. The Dolphins had an early lead but soon found themselves (predictably) playing catch-up to the Chiefs, which meant lots of passing. If DeVante Parker and/or Mike Gesicki miss Week 15 and beyond with their injuries then Bowden should be heavily featured and a weekly top-40 option thanks to this elusiveness:
On third down, the Chiefs bring the house. Tua Tagovailoa slings it and Bashaud Breeland could've brought Lynn Bowden Jr. down, but can't and gives up a first down. #ChiefsKingdom pic.twitter.com/143CLn1yKE
— Mitchel Summers (@WIBWMitchel) December 13, 2020
Tony Pollard (RB, DAL) - FAB Bid: 20-30%
21% rostered
Pollard worked a near-50/50 split with Ezekiel Elliott in Week 14, garnering 13 touches to Zeke’s 14 while putting up 48 yards and the valuable TD. The Cowboys Defense shut Cincinnati down, which may have led to more rest for a banged-up Elliott. Regardless, Pollard looks good with the ball and seems like a good bet for at least 10-12 touches moving forward.
Gus Edwards (RB, BAL) - 33% - FAB: 25-50% - Edwards and Dobbins are the 1-2 punch.
Benny Snell Jr. (RB, PIT) - 20% - FAB: 25-50% - Conner's quad injury elevates Snell.
DeAndre Washington (RB, MIA) - 19% - FAB: 6-10% - Poor results but volume if starter.
Ito Smith (RB, ATL) - 3% - FAB: 6-8% - ATL not leaning on Gurley, some touches here.
Peyton Barber (RB, WAS) - 15% - FAB: 3-5% - Relevant if Gibson misses again.
LeSean McCoy (RB, TB) - 1% - FAB: 3-5% - If RoJo is limited, McCoy’s role expands.
Samaje Perine (RB, CIN) - 2% - FAB: 1-3% - Gio is not a workhorse, Perine GL touches?
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Wide Receivers
Russell Gage (WR, ATL) - FAB Bid: 25-30%
11% rostered
With Julio Jones out on Sunday (and possibly for the year), Gage stepped up with 82 yards on five catches (seven targets) and a crisp 39-yard touchdown pass to Calvin Ridley.
Epic WR Pass to Calvin Ridley ?
Russell Gage throws a LASER
(via @NFL)pic.twitter.com/0fOeynT0nm
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) December 13, 2020
It may have been one of the best throws by an ATL player this year. The Falcons can’t lean on their defense or Todd Gurley to win games, making Gage a weekly WR3 with a lower floor thanks to Matt Ryan’s inconsistency.
Tim Patrick (WR, DEN) - FAB Bid: 10-12%
28% rostered
Patrick has been living off of touchdowns lately, which isn’t ideal, but three in his past two games will do it. Aside from Week 12’s QB-less game, Patrick has either scored or topped 60 yards in each of his last six games. He’s never caught more than six passes in a game and isn’t a volume hog -- Denver isn’t built for it -- but a date against Buffalo’s strong offense in Week 15 should yield a negative gamescript. KJ Hamler is a fine DeSean Jackson-lite pivot if you’re okay with a zero floor.
Gabriel Davis (WR, BUF) - FAB Bid: 10-12%
7% rostered
Davis has caught a TD in three straight games as a big-play threat for Buffalo, and his modest 3-19-1 line from Sunday could’ve been much better if Josh Allen didn’t overthrow a potential 50-yard score. The floor is zero here but this offense’s range of outcomes enhances a boom-bust player such as Davis. John Brown is returning to practice this week but that’s no guarantee he plays. Monitor the situation and deploy Davis if Brown remains out.
Chad Hansen (WR, HOU) - FAB Bid: 8-10%
2% rostered
Hansen led the depleted WR corps with seven catches for 56 yards, catching all of his targets as he builds rapport with Deshaun Watson. He stepped up with Brandin Cooks out and we’ll see how Cooks reports for Week 15 at Indianapolis, but Hansen’s a factor even if Cooks plays. Even if Houston gets David Johnson back from the COVID-19 list, their ground game hasn’t been the focus in 2020. Expect three-wide sets that’ll try to find holes in Indy’s secondary.
Rashard Higgins (WR, CLE) - 13% - FAB: 5-10% - CLE is run-first but starting snaps here.
Mack Hollins (WR, MIA) - 0% - FAB: 4-6% - Hollins is a starting WR if Parker can’t go.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR, GB) - 15% - FAB: 4-6% - So inconsistent, I know.
Denzel Mims (WR, NYJ) - 8% - FAB: 2-3% - Missed Wk 14 but starter when active.
Jalen Reagor (WR, PHI) - 22% - FAB: 2-3% - 65 yards on 3 touches, volume the issue.
Laviska Shenault Jr. (WR, JAX) - 16% - FAB: 2-3% - 11 targets is good, but @BAL on deck.
James Washington (WR, PIT) - 5% - FAB: 1-2% - 81% of snaps, second-most of WRs.
Kendrick Bourne (WR, SF) - 3% - FAB: 1-2% - If Deebo misses Wk 15, juicy DAL matchup.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Tight Ends
Irv Smith Jr. (TE, MIN) - FAB Bid: 3-5%
5% rostered
Smith had a nice return to action on Sunday, bringing in all four of his targets for 63 yards and a score against Tampa Bay despite being "eased in" on only 35% of the snaps. His return coincided with Kyle Rudolph’s absence, which means he has three TDs in the two games he’s played without Rudolph active. Even in an iffy spot against Chicago next week, Smith is a top-14 TE as long as Rudolph is out. He's too strong with the ball in his hands:
Irv Smith is back in the #Vikings lineup and some great effort pulls him into the endzone.pic.twitter.com/B8KvcqK1pe
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 13, 2020
Cole Kmet (TE, CHI) - FAB Bid: 2-4%
5% rostered
Kmet remains involved as Chicago’s offense starts to wake up, with his seven targets trailing only Allen Robinson’s 13. While the rookie and Jimmy Graham both caught four passes and Graham caught a TD, the trend towards Kmet is clear. Two straight seven-target games take him out of the TD-dependent tier that Graham is in and elevate him to TE2 territory. It helps that he draws games against Minnesota and Jacksonville to wrap up Weeks 15-16.
Dan Arnold (TE, ARI) - FAB Bid: 0-2%
1% rostered
Many TEs live in that TD-dependent world and Arnold is a VIP there. With four touchdowns in his last three games, Arnold has earned some trust though Arizona remains a run-happy squad. As such, Arnold is lucky to see three targets in a game. But Philly has given up eight TDs to tight ends in 2020 and there are worse trends to lean into if you’re desperate.
Jordan Reed (TE, SF) - FAB Bid: 0-2%
19% rostered
The results haven’t been there for Reed with Nick Mullens and the passing-lite 49er attack, but he’s still averaging five targets per game since returning and remains a good big-bodied target. I don’t see anyone on Dallas who matches up well with him and have him within my top-20 on the week, which plays in some deeper formats.
Jordan Akins (TE, HOU) - FAB Bid: 0-2%
4% rostered
We’d feel better if Akins had caught the wide-open TD that he must’ve lost in the sun. Alas, all we have is a memeable video and an empty 3-20-0 line on six targets. Only 10 TEs saw six or more targets in Week 14, which highlights the low bar for TEs as well as Akins’ relatively-good standing within that group.
FAB Waiver Wire Bids - Defense/Special Teams
Cleveland Browns Defense (at NYG, at NYJ) - 50% rostered - FAB Bid: 25-50%
Washington Football Team Defense (vs. SEA, vs. CAR) - 36% - FAB Bid: 3-4%
Philadelphia Eagles Defense (at ARI, at DAL) - 27% - FAB Bid: 3-4%
Houston Texans Defense (at IND, vs. CIN) - 18% - FAB Bid: 2-3%
If you’re in the one-half of leagues where the Browns are available then congratulations -- throw whatever you can at them for two Metlife matchups that are top-five plays. Washington’s game is built around getting pressure with their front seven and Seattle’s O-line has let defenders get to Russ lately.
Philly’s D has a chance to breathe with Jalen Hurts leading the offense and that Week 16 game against Dallas is worth circling. Houston is unreliable but Cincinnati’s offense is an automatic “Go”. They're not a priority but the matchup alone will have them inside my top-10 that week.
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