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RotoBaller's Mike Marteny's ESPN College Football Pick'ems for Week 7. Picks with confidence points for Week 6 of the 2026 NCAA college football season. Expert upsets, targets, avoids, and predictions.
If you had picked against every pick I made in Pick Em last week, you would have finished 9-1. That's by far the worst Pick Em week I've ever had. Any chance that I had at moving up the leaderboard is now about as good as John Mateer's chances of winning the Heisman. Surprisingly, there were a few entries that went 0-for-10 on the week.
Week 7 was tough on everyone. Ted led the group with 39 points last week. Danny was second with 37 points. No one else hit 35 points. Only 13 total entries had 30 points. Ted's big week moved him into first place with 267 points. Rad and "Cright14" hang on to second place with 259 points each. "Rook," "Ilene," AJAX Rotoballer," and "Dr.SteveBrule" are all tied for fourth place with 255 points.
We are halfway through the season, and the projected group winner is well behind last year's pace. It is still pretty close overall, with only 28 points separating first place from 30th. The top 10 are all within 20 points of first place. That's still the largest margin of the season.
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College Football Pick'em Overview
This article is about the confidence game mode. You can also read my against-the-spread picks here every week for every game, so you know how I'm leaning toward that version of the game. Each week, I will recap who's dominating the group before I get into the picks. If you're going to beat everyone, all of the readers will know about it!
Let's get to the countdown! I will count them up from least confident (1) to most (10). You know, for dramatic effect. If I do change my pick or points sometime during the week, I will try to update the article or post it on X. Otherwise, you know all of my picks each week.
Week 8 features the Floyd of Rosedale game. We also have a couple of marquee games with Ole Miss in Austin and Houston in Salt Lake City. We also have a monster game in the Mountain West between New Mexico and North Dakota State in Albuquerque. It's not much easier this week.
(1) Wisconsin over USC
The public is 88% for USC right now, but Vegas tells a different story. Wisconsin is only a three-point dog at home. USC is 4-16 straight up in their last 20 trips east of Denver.
That doesn't magically end the curse. Wisconsin is a tough defensive team. USC hasn't faced one of those yet. I do have questions about the Wisconsin offense being able to score enough, but I remember how bad the USC defense has been.
Luke Fickell is finally building something in Madison. It's a night game, it's going to be brisk, and this Wisconsin team has been waiting for this kind of moment.
(2) Mississippi over Texas
Texas lost its second game in a row for the first time since 2021 with the home loss to Florida last week. That's not the worst of it. Texas lost at home to a backup quarterback making his first start.
Texas became the first No. 1 team since the AP Poll began in 1936 to lose back-to-back games to unranked opponents. The Longhorns haven't lost three straight since 2021 either.
They are now on the brink of that third straight loss with Ole Miss a slight favorite in Austin. This is the make-or-break for Steve Sarkisian. He publicly challenged Arch Manning this week, which doesn't sit well with many.
If Texas were to lose a third straight game with this roster, it's going to get ugly in Austin. You don't get to get a top-3 recruiting class, a top-3 portal class, and a top-3 NIL budget and lose three in a row. Not at Texas.
Trinidad Chambliss. To this point I’ve considered Chambliss more of a fun college QB than a true NFL guy who can win at the next level, but he just keeps putting more and more great stuff on tape. He’s undersized and I really question how translatable his play style is, yet I can’t ignore that he’s balling. Not sure if it’s because he’s in the same jersey but he reminds me a lot of Jaxson Dart, except I think he’s a lot more refined than Dart. He’s surprisingly got good footwork in the pocket and a lot better accuracy than Dart did in college. If Dart can work in the NFL (when he’s actually on the field) I’m starting to think maybe Chambliss can too. Excited to see how he continues this year. https://t.co/Gj5q0qIuPN
— King of Phinland?? (@KingOfPhinland) October 18, 2026
That's the only reason I have the game this low. Trinidad Chambliss is the best player on the field, and Kewan Lacy will be mostly healthy. I have a feeling that Texas might show up, so I'm keeping this much lower than most will.
(3) Houston over Utah
Houston came about two inches from forcing overtime against Texas Tech and beat a pretty good Oklahoma State team. Utah's best win is against 3-3 Iowa State. They also struggled with 2-4 Colorado and 2-4 Kansas for 50 minutes.
Utah isn't tested. Houston is. Conner Weigman isn't as fast as Devon Dampier, but he is more refined as a passer. Houston also has a great receiver in Amare Thomas.
The dirty little secret is that Utah's defense hasn't been dominant yet this year, and they still haven't played a team that is anywhere close to good. A tested Houston team can hang with Utah. If they hang with them, who knows what will happen?
The more that I watch Jackson Gutierrez, the more that I think that he should have been the starter for the Middies from the beginning of the season.
The public is very heavy (91%) on North Texas, but there is juice on the Navy moneyline even though North Texas is favored. Vegas is trying to push you into a UNT bet by putting more vig on the Navy moneyline.
It's a weird tactic, but it's not unheard of. This tells me that people are betting North Texas, but Vegas expects a Navy outright win. I could see it happening, which is why I'm keeping the points lower on this one.
(5) Virginia Tech over Clemson
Clemson is only a slight favorite in FPI and Vegas, so the 69% from Pick Em pickers is a little surprising. I'm nervous about this because even though Ethan Grunkemeyer and Que'Sean Brown have been amazing, this team still finds ways to blow games.
This is exactly how it went in James Franklin's first season at Penn State. This Tech team is a lot more talented than Franklin's first Penn State team. It should come together, and soon. I'm thinking it's here against a freshman quarterback and a team that has had trouble running the ball.
(6) New Mexico over North Dakota State
This was billed as a CFP elimination game until the Bison lost in Vegas. The game loses a little bit of luster, but not a lot. New Mexico can prove something here.
The three-headed quarterback has subsided a little bit. Toa Fa'avae is getting most of the work lately, but the real strength of this team is defense.
Defense is what ended the perfect season in Vegas for the Bison. UNLV got after them and forced Nathan Hayes into mistakes. This looks exactly like the UNLV game.
It's going to be a low-scoring rock fight. That definitely favors the Lobos. New Mexico is third nationally in points allowed per game. NDSU is second.
Best defenses through week 7 (def. adj EPA/play vs. def success rate)
Oklahoma still clear out in front
https://t.co/SiTw98Uzhj https://t.co/GmbGnhZtT5
— Game on Paper (@gameonpaper) October 18, 2026
(7) Tulane over UTSA
UTSA has been notoriously bad on the road in AAC games, and Tulane finally moved away from Kadin Semonza and Zeon Chriss-Gremillion. Freshman Trace Johnson only completed half of his passes in his starting debut, but he led the Wave to a win over AAC heavyweight Memphis.
With the public so blindly heavy on UTSA (89%) and FPI at 59% for Tulane, I'm looking to steal some big points here. UTSA is still favored in Vegas, but the line is cratering. They may not be by kickoff on Saturday.
(8) Toledo over Western Michigan
Western Michigan always looks on the brink of blowing the game. Toledo did blow one against a maybe-not-as-bad-as-we-thought Buffalo team.
I trust the Toledo offense a lot more, and the defense has looked good lately. This could be a preview of the MAC title game. I picked Western Michigan to win the MAC before the season, but now, I think this is Toledo's to lose.
(9) Iowa over Minnesota
Iowa holds all four of its rivalry trophies for the first time since 2022 with the CyHawk win in September. One of those goes back on the market on Saturday.
The Floyd of Rosedale belongs to @HawkeyeFootball ?? https://t.co/rH8swGchPN
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 14, 2021
Iowa has been in possession of Floyd for 32 of the 44 years since 1982. This has been a very lopsided series lately. Minnesota took the Little Brown Jug at home for the first time since 1977, and they beat Wisconsin for the Axe last year. The Gophers are looking for the trifecta.
After seeing what Fame Ijeboi did to the Gophers, I don't think they'll get it. Kamari Moulton is going to demolish this defense.
Floyd of Rosedale
2002 - Iowa beat Minnesota, AND tore down Minnesota’s goalposts https://t.co/ZKgG2cYLgd
— Pick Six Previews (@PickSixPreviews) October 6, 2018
(10) Tennessee over South Carolina
South Carolina was able to pick off Florida thanks to a one-dimensional offense. Tennessee's offense has been very one-dimensional lately, but this defense has bordered on elite. Florida's is nowhere close.
A heavy dose of DeSean Bishop and this defense will keep Tennessee on track for Atlanta.
