RADIO
Antonio Losada examines ADP variation of wide receivers from the start of May to the start of June and assesses their situations to find key risers at WR in fantasy football drafts.
Since we've already looked at the biggest fallers at wide receiver, let's shift our focus to the risers. As you may know, Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player in your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is at for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with the free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft-season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May leading up to June using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at four wide receiver risers.
Wide Receivers - ADP Risers
Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
After a mediocre, although understandable, 2019 season when it came to the QB-WR connection in Indianapolis after the retirement of Andrew Luck and T..Y. Hilton's injuries, things look much brighter now. While Zach Pascal and Hilton both reached 125+ fantasy points, they finished ranked 133th and 139th in PPR leagues among all eligible players. The fix? Drafting Michael Pittman Jr. with a second-round pick in 2020. Pittman instantly became the no. 2/3 option on the receiving corps upon his selection by the Colts, and his stock has stayed on the rise ever since the draft.
Pittman will also play under veteran Philip Rivers instead of Jacoby Brissett and brings a big frame to the field. His route tree doesn't look fully developed, but his size should make him a red-zone target. The Colts have talked about Pittman as their split receiver with Hilton being the one lining up outside. Even as a rookie, PFF projects him to reach 122.8 points and has Pittman as the WR67 in their 2020 projections with 47 receptions for 570 yards and three TD. Had I to bet, I'd bump all of those numbers up. His current ADP is still a little bit "cheap" for what I expect him to produce, so get him while you can.
Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
This is one of the weirdest ascensions through the ADP leaderboards. First, a little bit of context: last season, Johnson was Pittsburgh's best wide receiver with 167.1 PPR over 16 games. His 10.4 PPG weren't that far from the averages of James Washington (9.0) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (9.6), who both missed at least one game. Entering 2020, Smith-Schuster should be the no. 1 WR followed by Johnson and then Washington, and we have to get rookie Chase Claypool into the conversation too.
The normal outcome here would be to see Johnson playing opposite JuJu expanding the field. He's entering his second year and last season he had to endure a trove of ridiculously bad QBs, so he should be even better than he was. Is he worth his current ADP (and that he could probably reach if the trend keeps going)? Borderline yes. Johnson projects to reach 160.4 PPR in 2020 good for 107th overall and WR39. His ROI these days would sit pretty much at an even return, so if his ADP goes up another round he would start to become an overpriced asset.
DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles
D-Jax is currently, plain and simple, a steal. Jackson's projection of 141 PPR points for the 2020 season has him as the WR51, sure, but he's got the highest ROI (ADP 134) at 1.42 only behind Marvin Jones, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Preston Williams, and Parris Campbell among WRs getting drafted outside of the first 10 rounds in 12-team leagues. As is often the case with injured players from the prior season, people have just forgotten about Jackson, but they are slowly catching up with the rest of us smart fantasy GMs.
DeSean Jackson could only be part of three games in 2019 but even with that he averaged 12.3 PPG and racked up 159 yards a couple of touchdowns. You know D-Jax by now: blink and you'll miss him getting open downfield. Jackson is a burner and deep threat and one of the best definitions of boom/bust player weekly due to his type of game. That doesn't mean you shouldn't draft him. He's played at least 10 games every season except last one, and the last time he missed more than six games was all the way back in 2015. He's a perennial 150-PPR yearly scorer living in the 10-to-12 PPG clip week to week.
Marvin Jones, Detroit Lions
Jones had it hard during his first years in Cincinnati (other than his ridiculous 10-touchdown 2013 season) but once he moved places and signed with Detroit he's been a machine only stopped by injuries. In the last three years Jones has averaged 14.0 PPG in 38 combined games reaching 1,100 yards once and scoring nine TD twice.
Jones will benefit from Matthew Stafford's being back manning the QB position after missing ample time in 2019. If you think DeSean Jackson is a steal, let me tell you he doesn't even get to Jones' heels. Jones is currently the only WR projected to reach 170+ PPR points getting drafted outside of the first 10 rounds of 12-team-league drafts. PFF has him at 206.9 PPR over the 2020 season, good for WR16, while his ADP is that of receivers expected to score around 150 PPR points looking at those projections. The rise is totally comprehensible as Jones' current ADP being so cheap makes no sense at all.
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