DraftKings PGA DFS Lineup Picks - The Wells Fargo Championship With Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Matthew Fitzpatrick and More Golf Advice (2024)

Be sure to follow me on Twitter /X @TeeOffSports to get more answers this week. Also, if you aren't doing so already, I'd love for you to consider signing up for my RotoBaller premium subscription. There are numerous tools available, including my heralded 'PGA Rankings Wizard Model.'

PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - The Wells Fargo Championship

We have some exciting changes that we are implementing this year over at RotoBaller. There will be multiple subscription-based tiers for our readers to enjoy, including my very own TeeOffSports VIP Package that will include the following items:

PGA Rankings Wizard Model (Pre-Tournament)

• A powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you are considering signing up, take a look at this how-to guide of everything you can find weekly inside my pre-tournament model. The sheet is loaded with sortable and weighable information to help you in all sectors of the market. 
• The Wells Fargo Championship

Vegas Report (All Pre-Tournament Bets)

• Top Pre-Tournament H2H Pick: (104-60-9) 63.41%
• All Pre-Tournament H2Hs: (265-194-25) 57.73%
• Total H2Hs Since 2017: (518-361-71) 58.93%
• Outright Winners Since 2017: 42
• Units: +327.863 Units
• All Totals Are Entering 2024
• Click here to see an example

In-Tournament Model (Updated Stats + User Configuration Ability)

• Here, you will find updated stats for the particular tournament -- all sortable and weighable when you make a copy of your own under the file tab. The purpose of this is to provide an area where you can research the daily proceedings for DFS strategy or find outright or daily head-to-head wagers. There are over 25 weighable categories by the time Round 4 comes around, including the ability to add back in your pre-tournament research for every day.

In-Tournament Head-To-Head Bets For Rounds 1,2,3 and 4

• Lifetime Record: (253-167-46) 60.24%
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First-Round Leader Article

• Eight first-round leader wins in 2022.
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One & Done (Deep-Dive Into Potential Options To Consider)

• 10+ million in earnings during two of the past three seasons while providing information for contests. We will take a comprehensive look into a handful of options to consider.
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Late DraftKings Article (Condensed Player Pool)

• We will build off the Monday article throughout the week and consolidate selections toward a more concrete player pool for everyone to consider by Wednesday.

Premium Discord Access

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TeeOffSports membership

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Field

Field Size: 69
Cut: Top None
Top 20 Entrants: 16

Last Five Winners of The Wells Fargo

Expected Cut-Line 

(No cut this week)

Quail Hollow

7,554 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

With its initial design dating back to 1961 by the renowned George W. Cobb, Quail Hollow has a rich history of challenge and prestige when diving into a venue that hosted the 2017 PGA Championship and 2022 Presidents Cup. Over the past 25 years, it has undergone three significant re-designs, each one adding a unique element to the course. Notably, a makeover was implemented before the 2017 PGA Championship, which increased the facility's distance and further transformed the course into one of the most challenging tests players face on tour each season. 

Tree-lined parklands and undulating fairways forge a systematic approach that reduces driving accuracy by nearly eight yards, although don't let the numbers fool you when it comes to the correct procedure for tackling this behemoth of a layout. Distance and long iron play are going to be the name of the game when you look at the 7,554-yard course that increases yardage off the tee by just over 17 yards. That is one of the reasons the property features a 13.4% enhancement in projected approach shots from beyond 175 yards.

You would expect that answer alone to cause the difficulty I keep touching on when producing chances to score. However, it only becomes further heightened when we look into the lightning-quick Bermuda greens that add their own sinister nature to the proceedings since they produce nearly a 25% increase for three-putt totals over a standard stop on tour. Golfers will find themselves in this constant battle of trying to attack a driver-heavy course while also being able to assail the lands from a distance on their second shots. It is why 10 holes this week will feature somewhere between a 20 to 35% percent bogey or worse rate. 

Let's Look at the Stats

Key Stats 

Let's quickly run through how I built my model.

Weighted Strokes Gained: Total (30%)

Strokes Gained Total: Long Courses (10%)

Strokes Gained Total: Hard Courses (10%)

Weighted Scoring (20%)

Weighted Scrambling (10%)

Weighted Total Driving (10%)

Long Iron + Putt (10%)

Total Number of Top-10's Out of the Seven Categories: Two-Year Running Model

I will dive deeper into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on X.

First Look Into Outright Bets

Golfers to Land in the Top Half of the Field for All Categories

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.

High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players 

***There are four players priced above $10,000. Please remember that my DFS article is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter/X.

***Ludvig Aberg has withdrawn

It is hard to look at the top of this board and not see sound pricing in every spot. We could debate exactly where each golfer should have been slotted compared to those around them, but my model believed these were the four three favorites. Decisions will come down to popularity to break close ties, although I preferred taking a stand with Wyndham Clark early on Monday afternoon. 

My Wyndham senses are tingling again after the American graded first in my model at long courses and inside the top 10 for weighted putting, expected strokes gained total and projected scoring.

Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Spencer by using the discount code TEEOFF when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.

End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$9,000 Range

The removal of Ludvig Aberg from the field does marginally alter my view since it makes Max Homa (and maybe even Viktor Hovland) more intriguing routes to consider in the $9,000s, even if I still prefer doubling-up in the $10,o00+ range.

While ownership projections will influence the final decisions, one consistent factor in my strategy has been my bold approach to backing Sahith Theegala, a stance of mine that will exceed the market's consensus when all is said and done. 

Theegala's expectation this week has seen a remarkable upswing, particularly when comparing his weighted proximity totals to his baseline for this track. This improvement significantly boosts his potential, especially considering his exceptional putting skills and impressive returns that will align well with the data from past Quail Hollow events.

Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players

$8,000 Range 

The profile lacked the pure upside we got from Sahith Theegala, which pushed me in that direction for outright betting purposes. Still, it is an excellent spot for Matthew Fitzpatrick to be considered for what should be condensed ownership compared to the rest of the names in this part of the field. 

Fitzpatrick has the par-five scoring and increased projection for long iron play to pay off this price tag. 

Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players to Consider ($7,000+)

Check out my model for everything in this section. There, you will get individual rankings on all players and be able to weigh the data to create your very own model when you make a copy. Please consider signing up for this tool that I am very proud to share with the public!

There are a handful of dark blue profiles in this range. If you are shooting for pure upside, I am fine with considering names like Akshay Bhatia, although I am going to go a safer route for this article and highlight Adam Scott. 

Scott's expected driving and strokes gained total return landed in the top 10 of this field. You can get the entire outlook inside my model for why my math thought he was a top-15 player on this board. 

$6,000 Options to Consider

Matthieu Pavon is the best value I have on the board for both DFS and betting odds.

Favorite Play Each Section:

$10,000+ - Wyndham Clark
$9,000+ - Sahith Theegala
$8,000+ - Matthew Fitzpatrick
$7,000+ - Adam Scott
$6,000+ - Matthieu Pavon

Win More With RotoBaller

Win more with expert tools and advice from proven winners! RotoBaller's PGA Premium Packages feature several savvy analysts and proven winners for DFS and betting.

Our very own Joe Nicely took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020

Congrats @tenndolly2 ???

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— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020

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