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This weekend have pretty much nothing to do with last one, that's for sure. We're going from Adesanya and Whittaker facing for a second time with the belt up for grabs, to a main card highlighted by two HW fighters that rank 10th and 12th in the division. I mean, there's just no sugarcoating that when you put both back-to-back events next to one another. But that's the APEX life, and we're not going to bitch about it as long as we keep getting our UFC fix for another week and running.
Now, if we're honest for a minute, it's not that this has a horrid ring to it. Hill and Walker are absolute units poised to hand us some KO-tinted fireworks this weekend. These two men have combined for 8 KOs in 10 fights, so yes, there will most probably be one of those coming our ways next Saturday. It's just a matter of when, not if, with these two. Before that, also, a spicy affair at catchweight and the return of Eternal Jim to the Octagon among other things. Can't complain that much, folks.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 48: Walker vs. Hill on 02/19/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jamahal Hill, $9000 - vs. Johnny Walker
Bro. It's been 10 fights combined between these two and only two didn't end in a first-round KO. Say what!? As crazy as that sounds. Jamahal is 2-1 having getting KO'd in his lone loss, while Walker boasts a 4-3 record though he's just 1-3 since Nov. 2019--with the two decision-losses in his resume, along with a 2:07 KO in that November fight a couple of years ago. Which I'm trying to say, just in case it's not clear enough, is that these two might not reach 20 SSA putting together their individual tallies, but that one of them will surely be kissing the mat by the time we reach... two minutes of fighting time, tops?
There is just no possible way of assessing these two men looking at their stats because the samples are tiny. Walker has stayed inside the octagon for a larger amount of time (not even 48 minutes and that number is totally skewed by his last 25-minute bout against Thiago Santos) but Hill has logged all of four minutes and a half. No takedowns, no striking volume, and similar chances at a KO. Give me Hill, though I gotta say I'd fade the hell out of this fight in DFS contests this weekend due to the absolute boom/bust profile of both fighters.
DraftKings MMA Catchweight (195 lb) - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Kyle Daukaus - vs. Jamie Pickett
Fo', fo', fo'. Daukas and Pickett will be entering the Octagon this Saturday after having four bouts in their resumes each. Daukaus is 1-2-1 and Pickett a not-much-better 2-2 even record. Don't call me a hater, but these two are surely trying to get their UFC deals extended while walking a thin line if you ask me. Sure, Pickett has won two straight, but all of this man's fights have taken place in a span of a year so it's not that he's clearly on the right path.
Daukaus, while having worse results than Pickett career-wise, has also faced slightly tougher competition in his four-fight UFC tenure. Both of these fighters look at bringing foes down with takedowns, which is nice for their upside in fantasy contests. Pickett is 5-of-10 to Daukaus' 6-of-24. Yes, the latter's landing rate is lower, but he's way more active and I'm 100% favoring volume over success. When it comes to striking, Daukaus also seems to have a slight edge over Pickett and Pickett has already been knocked out (May 2021) in a first-round defeat in which he lasted all of 1:04 minutes. Daukes for this one, though you should tame your expectations because none of these two is going to put up massive numbers.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Parker Porter, $8900 - vs. Alan Baudot
Vets with nothing to lose, in the heavyweight division? Give it all to me! Porter fought at 36 the last time we watched him at it, and Baudot wasn't far behind with a 33-yo bout against Rodrigo Nascimento his last time out. Now, see, this fight has a clear favorite and that's for a reason. Porter has a 2-1 record in the UFC and his two wins came via strong decision-efforts in which he put up 228 and 278 SSA while landing 60% and 54% of his total strikes in those two respectively.
Yes, the KO-against sucked as a first-round defeat, but Porter has been fantastic since then, even going 3-of-12 on takedowns. Baudot can't say the same, as he's yet to reach the third round in the UFC (or the seven-minute mark, for that matter) without getting rocked to sleep. The volume and success at landing blows aren't bad (63-of-103) but he isn't in for the takedowns and that, simply put, limits his upside by a mile compared to Porter's potential gains. Not saying Alan can't pull the upset, but older Parker Porter has looked much better of late and brings a much safer floor in an always-volatile division such as HW.
DraftKings MMA Lightweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Jim Miller, $7700 - vs. Nikolas Motta
Could Miller be Motta's father? Close, but not quite there. Anyway, we're talking about a near-40-year-old veteran doing it against a not-yet-30 man. Miller has, obviously, been on the low side of things lately going 5-8 since 2017 and 2-3 in a much more recent span since the start of 2020. No one is going to argue his best days aren't over, because that'd be ridiculous to state, but it's going to be Miller's no. 39 fight and only because of that, you gotta give kudos to the legend.
Motta, on the other corner, is making his UFC debut this weekend after racking up a 12-3 pro-MMA record since debuting back in 2012. He's coming off a victory in Dana White's Contender Series via decision, though he's got himself three KO wins in the prior four fights. Menacing, to say the least. While Motta hasn't been subbed since 2013, he's got rocked as recently as Nov. 2018. This is a risky pick, I know, but I'd side with Miller. Even while clearly cooked, Jimmy has defeated five foes with early finishes in all of those five last wins (one KO, four subs) while completely avoiding getting TKO'd or subbed himself, always reaching the final buzzer.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Joaquin Buckley, $8300 - vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan
Had Abdul dropped his last fight last August, we might not even be discussing this upcoming main-card bout today. That's because Abdul has greatly as he started his UFC tenure, put up a bunch of duds to continue it. After winning four of his first five fights with sound KOs--all of them without even reaching the second round--Abdul proceeded to lose three (including a 30-second KO) only to bounce but without another KO his last time out--a 17-second, 1-for-1-strike one, on top of everything.
Speaking of knocking folks out... what about Joaquin Buckley's track record!? Five fights, 3-2 on his resume, and all of those fights ending in KOs whether for or against him. Jesus Christ. Buckley has yet to win more than two straight, but he's entering the Octagon on a winning note as he defeated Antonio Arroyo his last time out last September with just 2:34 left on the clock. Buckley's shown more than Abdul mostly because he's fought longer fights and he's done more in those, from throwing more strikes to even going after takedowns on a fight-to-fight basis. Abdul has not looked very good of late barring that last-fight KO, so I'm going with Buckley here because he can clearly get that KO-win while logging big numbers as he's not a one-punch-total type of knockout artist.
