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It's the beginning of the end everyone, as we start the final week of the regular season with an 8-game Main slate on DraftKings, with lock coming a little early at 6:37 (EST).
There's nothing scary on the weather front but the game in Atlanta could provide a sneakily supple hitting environment according to historical weather models. Let's start the last week of the regular season in the most 2020 way possible...By recommending multiple Pirates! Shiver me timbers.
In this article, I'll be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for the DraftKings main slate on 9/21/2020. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for sites like FanDuel and other sports as well.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Jacob deGrom - P, NYM vs Tampa Bay ($10,500)
He's going to be the chalk but there is no chance I'm fading deGrom against a team that John Means just lit up for a dozen strikeouts. The Rays aren't quite as whiff-happy versus RHP (25.5% K%, 5th-highest) as they are against LHP (28.2% K%, highest in MLB) but Jacob deGrom also isn't John Means. Tampa Bay loves to K and prior to his last outing hadn't scored less than 25 points on DK in his last five starts. Feed me that yummy chalk in cash, all day.
German Marquez - P, COL at San Francisco Giants ($7800)
Marquez is usually playable away from Coors but has been pretty good in his three September starts, two of which occurred at home. He went a total of 20.2 IP in those three starts, posting a 3.05 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. He only had 16 K but faced both Los Angeles teams and Oakland, all of whom are stingy with strikeouts against RHP. I know I'm going to want a lot of deGrom and some of the pricey bats. Rolling with the lower upside of Marquez allows me make this happen.
DraftKings DFS Infielders
Jacob Stallings - C, PIT vs LHP Jon Lester ($2,600)
I hate paying for catchers unless the spot is really appealing, but today the cupboard is looking bare so I'm looking to do a little punt-a-roo. Stallings has been solidly nondescript this season, with his 17 RBI and .259 AVG both in the top-10 among catchers with at least 100 PA. And against LHP this season, he has a .414 wOBA and 52.4% FB%. Stallings also has a 17.1% BB% vs LHP, while Lester has walked seven batters in his last three starts. That adds up to a solid floor for a cheap start to a sneaky, little stack against Lester.
Garrett Cooper - 1B, MIA vs RHP Huascar Ynoa ($3700)
Cooper has quietly been very good since returning from COVID-19 in late August and is now slashing .284/.370/.516 over 108 PA, with 5 HR - 18 R - 16 RBI. And he's been the hard-hitting Marlin in 2020, posting a team-high 92.6 mph average EV. I'll take the value of Cooper, who's batting third against a suspect pitcher, in a game with a 9.5 run o/u.
Ozzie Albies - 2B, ATL vs LHP Trevor Rogers ($5,100)
Remember that glorious day when Albies came back from injury and was only $3000? Those days are passed because in the 11 games since returning, Albies is slashing .356/.383/.689, with 4 HR, 11 R, 8 RBI, and 3 SB. Atlanta has been batting him down in the order but given his production, it hasn't mattered much. He faces opposing pitcher Trevor Rogers, who is allowing a 54.5% Hard% to RHB this season and is just begging to get blown up by the Braves.
Ke'Bryan Hayes - 3B, PIT vs LHP Jon Lester ($3,600)
If his first 65 PA are any indication, I'm on my way to being really, really wrong about Hayes' long-term offensive potential. I didn't put a ton of stock into the small strides he made at Triple-A last season and thought that his glove would make him a better real-life player, than a fantasy player. His numbers are superb, slashing .310/.385/.603, with 3 HR and a .409 wOBA, but the real game-changer that is making me adjust my thoughts is on his Baseball Savant page. If qualified, Hayes would be in a sea of red; his 94.2 mph average EV would be the 4th-highest and his 59.5% Hard% would be second. I'm not saying he's the next big superstar but those type of numbers can't be ignored. Neither can the fact that Jon Lester is allowing a 42.5% Hard% to RHB. Plus, he remains one of baseball's worst pitchers at holding runners and Hayes had 12 SB in each of his last two seasons in the minors.
Paul DeJong - SS, STL at RHP Carlos Hernandez
There aren't a ton of shortstops I'm interested in today but DeJong could provide a lot of value at his price point, with the Cardinals taking on rookie Carlos Hernandez and the terrible Royals bullpen. While he only has a .339 wOBA vs RHP this season, DeJong does have a 54.4% Hard% that is a team-high. And there should be plenty of ducks on the pond, as the two batters that precede him (Paul Goldschmidt and Brad Miller) have respective 15.5%/16.7% walk-rates and .387/.373 wOBA vs. RHP.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Ronald Acuna Jr. - OF, ATL vs LHP Trevor Rogers ($5,900)
The price tag is a lot to stomach but the weather in Atlanta looks to be sneaky-good for hitting and I want some Atlana hitters. So why not start at the top? Acuna only has a .351 wOBA versus LHP this season but does have a 60% Hard% against them, while posting a 27% BB%. And he looks to be heating up again, hitting two home runs in his last three games, with six runs scored and five RBI.
Adam Frazier - 2B/OF, PIT vs LHP Jon Lester ($3100)
This isn't a play based off of Frazier's .215 AVG or 68 wRC+, it's a play on how he matches up with Lester. More specifically, how he matches up to get on base and steal a bag versus Lester. Frazier has an 83.6% contact-rate vs LHP, while Lester is allowing an 82.3% contact-rate that, if qualified, would be the third-highest in baseball. Plus, he's the final player in my stack of the worst team in baseball.
Tyler O'Neill - OF, STL at RHP Carlos Hernandez ($3100)
He has an atrocious .183 AVG but the Cardinals left fielder does have a respectable seven home runs in 147 PA, with 19 RBI and 19 runs. And his 44.6% FB vs RHP is the highest on the team, while his .240 ISO vs RHP is second only to Brad Miller's .243 ISO. That's enough for me, facing a rookie pitcher and at a price that lets me afford some of the big bats and deGrom.
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