RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! Patrick Reed (-15) won The Masters for his first career major over Rickie Fowler (-14) and Jordan Spieth (-13). I had chosen Fowler as my pick to win, and also picked Reed as a DraftKings play.
This week I will be providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for the RBC Heritage. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
RBC Heritage
The PGA Tour heads up the coast to Harbour Town Golf Links in Hilton Head Island, South Carolina for the RBC Heritage.
This par-71 is one of the shortest course on tour playing to 7,100 yards. The course has four par-3's, 11 par-4's, and three par-5's. Players drive the ball less 17 yards less than tour average, 283 yards. However, they hit the fairway at a higher clip here, 62%, than tour average, 60%. From the fairways to the greens, though, players reached the greens, at a lower percentage, 57%, than tour average, 65%. These greens are the smallest on tour. If they fail to get on them, not such a big deal. The scrambling percentage is 61%, tour average is 57%.
The greens are Bentgrass and are slower than average (last year was the only year they played fast). The average three putts per round on tour is 56%, here it's 40%.
With this course being on the ocean, wind could play a major factor.
The last six years the cut line has been an average of +2.5.
Past winners have been Wesley Bryan, Branden Grace, Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar, Graeme McDowell, Carl Pettersson, Brandt Snedeker, and Furyk.
Luke Donald has the most total strokes gained at this event, 54.73, followed by Matt Kuchar, 44.65, Russell Knox, 32.97, and Branden Grace, 30.68. I have a lot more to say about Donald below.
The more GIR's gained one has, the better finish he will see. Players who perform well in SG:P and SG:APP also do well. Shots from 175-200 yards out is the most common approach shot.
My custom stat model will be focusing on five stats; Strokes Gained: putting (30%), SG: App (25%), GIR's gained (25%), and proximity 175-200 (20%).
My custom stat model will focus on the last 36 rounds played with an emphasis on Bentgrass greens.
With the results, I keyed on the following.
* I will not be looking at any stats from the Match Play three weeks ago. Only referencing it. *
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are four players this week priced above $10,000; Dustin Johnson ($12,000), Paul Casey ($11,300), Matt Kuchar ($10,800), and Marc Leishman ($10,300)
Johnson registered a T-10 at The Masters after a final round 69. But he was never in contention, which is a disappointment for a player of his caliber. This is a short course, and Johnson may overpower this course. He was asked last week about holding back some of his power for this week to which he responded,
"I mean, not really, I don’t feel like. Maybe next week at Harbour Town I might have to a little bit, but it’s just what the course calls for. It kind of makes you hit shots to a certain distance. It’s just a different kind of golf course where here you can kind of hit whatever you want off the tee or hit it as far as you want to. You still got to hit it straight though."
He's ninth in my rankings and this will be his first time competing at Harbour Town since 2009.
Casey saved face last week after a final round 65 to give him a T-15. His last time playing here was in 2016 where he was cut. However, he's had three top-25's from 2009 to 2014. He's number one in my rankings, but if he can carry over his play from Sunday, he'll compete.
Kuchar is another player who underwhelmed at Augusta. He started off strong with a 68, but did not shoot below par after that. He won this event in 2014, and since has had a fifth, T-9, and T-11.
Leishman was in contention the first two days at Augusta but tailed off after a third round 73. He's competed here eight times and only one top 25 in 2013 (T-9). This price is too steep.
Middle-Priced Players
Brian Harman ($9,800) - The 5-foot-7-inch 155 pound Harman shows no fear and never backs down from anyone. He's missed one cut this calendar year. While he had a disappointing Masters, he finished off with a strong 69 to record a T-44. He's made four of his past five cuts here including two top-10's.
Kevin Kisner ($8,700) - He was great on the greens last week, but he struggled in other areas finishing T-28. However, his Masters showing was a great rebound from his early season struggles where he missed cuts at three of his prior four tournaments. He's made his last four cuts at Harbour Town including a playoff loss in 2015 and T-11 last year. If it gets windy this weekend, that's better for him because his strokes gains numbers rise as the gustier it gets. His ownership continues to be low (he was less than 2% owned last week in both GPP's and cash games).
Bryson DeChambeau ($8,300) - He's number second in my custom rankings. He registered a T-38 at Augusta, and has been solid this year. He had a solo runner-up at the Arnold Palmer Inv. While he was cut last year at this event, two years ago he had a T-4. His strokes gained approach numbers have risen steadily this season.
Luke Donald ($7,700) - How he is not priced higher is insane. He may be the highest-owned player this week based on this erroneous price and his history here. The former world number one has competed in Harbour Town nine times since 2009. He made all those cuts, registered five runner-ups (one of those in a playoff), two thirds and a T-15. Just look at these last five years!
He also has the most strokes gained totaled at this event.
William McGirt ($7,600) - He's made three top-10's in the past four years at this tournament. At this price, what else can you ask for?
Low-Priced Players
Danny Lee ($7,000) - Lee was a rising stud two years ago making deep runs at several events. Since then though he's flown off the radar. He last time out was two weeks in Houston where he got a T-64, which may seem bad, but not when you take into account missing seven of the past eight cuts. I'm hoping he is starting to put it together especially when he'll be less than 1% owned in GPP's.
Stewart Cink ($7,000) - He's made his past three cuts and three of his past five at Harbour Town. He's an up-and-down player, but such a seasoned vet.
Robert Garrigus ($6,900) - He recorded a T-18 in Houston two weeks ago, but he's so inconsistent. His numbers are solid though. He gained five strokes in Houston on the same type of greens (Bent) and gains over a stroke in windy conditions.
Blayne Barber ($6,700) - He's alternated cuts at his past five events and if the pattern continues, he should make the cut. He missed the cut here in 2016, but made it last year.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
Our friends at Fantasy National have created some game-changing DFS Golf tools, and you can read all about them here. They are hands-down the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry.
