X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Manufacturing a Stud: Late-Round Hitter Combos

Jon Anderson finds pairs of later-round fantasy baseball hitter sleepers for 2022 drafts that will combine to put up strong across-the-board production.

Fantasy baseball is most often a category-centered game. You compete in five or six offensive categories every week with your final season finished depending on how well you perform in each category.

This opens up the opportunity to deploy certain draft strategies that help your team become more well-rounded all throughout the draft. The best way to win your league is to draft the players that will end up being the season's biggest "breakout" players; however, it is not possible to see the future in this way, and finding these types of players is largely an exercise in randomness.

It is much easier to know how a hitter's value will be distributed between the different categories. After the first 150 picks or so, you tend to be looking at a bunch of hitters that contribute positively in one or two categories while bringing your team down in the other categories. One way to take advantage of this reality is to draft different category "specialists" together, so the sum of their parts makes for better all-around production. In this post, we will be taking a closer look at these kinds of players and exploring how we can combine different guys to boost a fantasy team late in the draft.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Methodology

I once again let Google Cloud do the work for me. I used ATC Projections (shoutout to RotoBaller's own Ariel Cohen!) and current NFBC ADP for my data sources. Here's what I did:

  1. Looked at all hitters with ADPs between 150 and 350 (107 of those 200 players were hitters)
  2. Used Python to generate a list of every single pair of those 107 hitters (5,671 unique pairs)
  3. For each pair, found the average ADP and calculated their collective R, HR, RBI, SB, and batting average

The result is a spreadsheet that looks like this:

The sheet is 5,671 rows long. That left me pretty overwhelmed, with countless different ways to proceed. I settled on an attempt to build the equivalent of a fantasy stud hitter using two late-round players together.

 

Building a Tatis

Fernando Tatis Jr. Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
540 111 43 104 26 .285

Thanks to the Ronald Acuna Jr. injury that will cost him at least a few weeks, Tatis has settled in with the highest ADP (or... lowest, I guess?) in drafts right now. The only reason anybody else (Trea Turner) is even close is that he has some injury question marks of his own. Needless to say, there are very, very few players that can do what Tatis can do - namely 40 homers, 20 steals, and a .280+ batting average.

We can, however, get pretty darn close with the proper combination of players, at least by the projections. Now it needs to be said that the overall value comparison here still isn't close, since Tatis can do 40-20-.280 while using just one of your roster spots, and this combination of players will take two up (and their performance is less certain because it will take two players to hit on their projections rather than just one, doubling the chances of failure here). But here we go, here are a few of the combinations that get closest to what Tatis offers.

Combo #1: Justin Turner (ADP 157) and Akil Baddoo (ADP 167)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
976 151 41 138 22 .262

These two both fall pretty close to our cut-off of pick 150, so you won't be getting them for free by any means. Of all the combinations that project for 40+ homers and 20+ steals, this combination has the highest projected batting average. That's pretty depressing since the average is 23 points shy of the Tatis' expectation, but you get a pretty decent sum of runs and RBI as well. Almost of all these steals (20 of the 22) are coming from Baddoo, and the batting average is being buoyed by Turner (.280 vs. .244), but as a combo, they give you a pretty nice result.

Combo #2: Jean Segura (ADP 207) and A.J. Pollock (ADP 226)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
943 136 37 132 17 .277

I loosened up the HR and SB criteria, dropping it down to 35+ and 15+, and then keeping the batting average sort intact. The top batting average combination while still meeting these criteria was actually Justin Turner and Amed Rosario (ADP 163), but we've already mentioned Turner, so I'm highlighting this duo.

By the projections, Segura is a decent way to sure up your team's batting average (a projection of .281) late while not taking zeroes in homers (15) or steals (nine). Add on the very cheap Pollock to that and you catch up a little bit in RBI (he's projected for 69) and HR (22) while adding another couple handfuls of steals (eight). This combination even plays the same two positions as Tatis, hot diggity dog!

Combo #3: Adolis Garcia (ADP 159) and Ramon Laureano (ADP 225)

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
986 140 46 138 26 .240

I gave up on the delusion of finding a bunch of homers and steals while not cratering at batting average, and found this combination. I required at least 25 steals and 45 homers and sorted by the sum of HR+SB, and then just ignored some of the .220 batting averages that popped up. Both of these names are projected for 20+ HR, 10+ SB seasons, and Laureano does that while being suspended for most of April. Garcia is a real batting average liability (projected for .230 right now), so he will murder you there for as long as he's striking out 33% of the time. Going the first month without Laureano will likely cost your team early on, but he's good enough to make up for it when he gets back - and the draft price is pretty affordable.

 

Building a Vladito

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
568 107 42 110 3 .307

We get a breather here not having to worry about steals. We're trying to find two late-round hitters that will help your team in batting average while piling up as many homers and RBI as possible. Here's what we find:

Combo #1: Justin Turner (ADP 156) and Yuli Gurriel (ADP 189)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
978 145 39 147 4 .280

Spoiler alert: Justin Turner shows up a lot when we're fishing for late batting average help. We should also immediately mention that the combined age here is 74 years old, so we don't have much of a chance of this combination vastly beating their projection - but a pretty good chance of them getting near it (humans get more predictable, more reliable, but less exciting as we age, it seems). Yuli is a reliable batting average source as well since his career 11% strikeout rate has not budged a point with age.

These two also fill the corner infield spots, and those spots tend to get pretty ugly as the draft goes on. These two old guys look pretty Vladdy-esque as a combination if you can stomach the lack of ceiling and the age concerns.

Combo #2: Luis Arrez (ADP  302) and Nelson Cruz (ADP 170)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
988 141 35 135 4 .280

Seriously, .280 is about as good as we can do with these late-round guys. There just are so few players hitting above .280 these days outside of these Arraez types that contribute almost nothing anywhere else. At 41, Cruz actually makes Gurriel and Turner look spry, but until he stops popping dingers, we have to keep drafting him at some point. He makes up 30 of the 35 projected homers here, but that comes with a declining .262 batting average. Arraez brings that up as he's projected to hit .299 as one of the leagues' premier contact and line-drive hitters. Four steals seems almost generous though, and there is a seriously huge downside here with the age of Cruz and the less than certain playing time of Arraez.

Combo #3: Alex Verdugo (ADP  157) and Charlie Blackmon (ADP 235)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
1,035 157 32 138 9 .282

These players are quite similar. Both are projected for 16 homers and a batting average hovering around .280 with a pretty nice runs projection and a non-awful RBI number. The one thing I'd be a little shaky on is the 30+ homers here, as neither of these guys swings the bat particularly hard anymore. But you can feel really good about the batting average with them, and there is upside in runs as well if they both stick at the top of their respective lineups.

 

Building an Ozzie

Ozzie Albies Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
591 99 29 89 17 .272

We're looking here for a combination of players that will score a bunch of runs while adding a decent number of steals, and we aren't overly worried about batting average.

Combo #1: Dylan Carlson (ADP 166) and Max Kepler (ADP 280)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
1,037 157 45 140 13 .245

Two guys that should end up near the top of the lineup that do a little bit of everything for you. Neither is projected for a good batting average (.256 for Carlson, .233 for Kepler), but I see some upside in both of those guys with their very respectable strikeout rates. They both can steal 5-10 bags (Kepler could even push towards 15 with his quick he is), and they profile for 20+ homers to boot. A nice combination of outfielders there if you go the first 150 picks with only one or two outfielders.

Combo #2: Joey Gallo (ADP 172) and Robbie Grossman (ADP 184)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
977 161 54 146 21 .226

This is me fully ignoring batting average, as is required when selecting Joey Gallo for your fantasy team. Gallo probably doesn't get enough credit for his runs-scoring ability. He walks a ton (projected 16% BB%), and because of that, the Yankees used him as the #2 hitter quite a bit last year. That will lead to a bunch of runs in that Yankees lineup. You can call this an OBP league special as Grossman also has a top-25 projected walk rate (13%) and projects to lead off for an improved Tigers offense. He also is projected for 16 steals (23rd most), so he is quite a nice late pick for catching up in runs and steals, and Gallo adds the homers here - making for a really great duo if you play in an OBP league (or if you're just reckless enough to ignore batting average).

 

Building an Alonso

Pete Alonso Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
568 91 40 107 2 .259

This is the "power specialist" combo, we're looking for a whole mess of homers and RBI, and we're not particularly worried about anything else. You can go this route if you start your draft with an elite batting average and steals core. Almost all of the top projected homer duos here include Gallo, but I'm leaving those out since we've already gone over what Gallo brings to the table.

Combo #1: Hunter Renfroe (ADP 163) and Adam Duvall (ADP 219)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
972 143 65 169 5 .237

Two guys that have proven their ability to hit the long ball for a good while now. In Renfroe's case, you might even squeeze out a decent enough batting average from him as he made some K% improvements last year.

Combo #2: Bobby Dalbec (ADP 234) and Miguel Sano (ADP 276)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
967 146 65 165 5 .232

Pretty much the same projection here but for cheaper. There is some hope that Dalbec can hit above .250, but no such hope for Sano. That said, these two are very reliable sources of power as they are two of the biggest specimens and hardest swingers in the league.

Combo #3: Ryan McMahon (ADP 161) and Trey Mancini (ADP 187)

Combined Projection:

AB R HR RBI SB AVG
1,075 155 51 159 5 .258

This combo is not very cheap by the framework of this article (remember I looked only at hitters with ADPs above 150), but they give you a nice supply of RBI while keeping your batting average afloat. The homers aren't going to be great, but they won't kill you either.

 

Super-Cheap Category Targets

In the spirit of finding category specialists late, I just looked at some individual players to finish this off. Here are the top projections for each of the five main roto categories coming from players with ADPs above 250.

Runs

Player ADP Runs
J.P. Crawford 353 78
Max Kepler 281 78
Miguel Sano 277 77
Mike Yastrzemski 271 76
Mark Canha 262 75

HR

Player ADP HR
Miguel Sano 277 33
Anthony Santander 251 27
Luke Voit 266 26
Patrick Wisdom 315 26
Max Kepler 281 25

RBI

Player   ADP RBI
Miguel Sano 277 83
Anthony Santander 251 75
Jesus Aguilar 292 74
Randal Grichuk 367 72
Luke Voit 266 71

SB

Player   ADP SB
Tyler Wade 442 21
Andres Gimenez 271 18
Raimel Tapia 273 17
Jonathan Villar 292 16
Garrett Hampson 273 16
Dylan Moore 438 16

AVG

Player  ADP Projection
Luis Arraez 303 .299
Nick Madrigal 303 .296
Raimel Tapia 273 .280
Jeff McNeil 310 .277
Yandy Diaz 378 .272

I hope this post helped strengthen up your late-round draft strategy, thanks for reading! Reach out to me on Twitter if you want the full hitter combos dataset.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
NBA

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP