College Football Betting Picks for Week Three (9/18/2021)

September 16, 2021

Our college football CFB betting picks for Week Three. Every week, Nick recommends the best CFB bets and top CFB wagers for the college football betting slate.

College football's second full weekend of games brought six ranked teams to their knees in defeat and a host of other big moments. Whether it was Ohio State losing its first home game in the Ryan Day era, or Jacksonville State shocking Florida State on the final play of the game, there were plenty of memorable moments to pass around.

After a strong start, last week's slate was a disappointing 0-4. Liberty and Troy found themselves in a surprising defensive slugfest, Akron proved they can't even stop the lowly Temple Owls, and New Mexico State proved that they can score - as long as they're playing their in-state rivals who are also among college football's cellar dwellers. The one brief respite is that Western Kentucky did cover the spread against Army, but our pick had the Hilltoppers on the money line, thus the loss. The season-long record is 4-6.

For Week Three of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.

Kent State @ Iowa (-22.5)

O/U: 56.5

The Kent State Golden Flashes earned their first victory, an easy 60-10 win over the FCS-level VMI Keydets. The team was paced by a strong rushing attack that racked up 494 yards on the ground, with Xavier Williams and Marquez Cooper being the primary beneficiaries. In the passing game, quarterback Dustin Crum has utilized an array of receivers, with Syracuse transfer Nykeim Johnson and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, native Dante Cephas the two top options. In the early 1-1 start, coach Jason Candle's team already has eight interceptions (including four against Texas A&M in a losing effort). While the early defensive explosion is likely to regress to a degree, the team does start eight seniors on defense and boasts 26% of its team as college graduates already. That level of experience will be key if Kent State has any hopes of entering Iowa City with an upset on its mind.

Coach Kirk Ferentz has been a staple at Iowa, currently in his 23rd year in charge of the program. The commanding 34-6 victory over Indiana, followed by the dominant 27-17 showing on the road against in-state rival Iowa State has catapulted the Hawkeyes to the #5 ranking in the country, and Iowa is currently on an eight-game winning streak dating back to last season. The defense has six interceptions so far, second in the country to their foe this week, and have three defensive scores so far. The recipe of strong defense and few offensive turnovers has seemingly worked so far, but it allows a small margin for error. Quarterback Spencer Petras has been underwhelming thus far, but does continue to win games as a game manager. Running back Tyler Goodson, meanwhile, has 13 career starts in the backfield and runs behind a strong offensive line that is breaking in three new starters this year but hasn't missed a beat. The defensive strength is its depth, but star players such as cornerbacks Matt Hankins and Riley Moss have made the opposing quarterbacks live through sixty minutes of hell in the two wins this season. If Iowa can build some momentum and get more production out of its offense, this team could become a legitimate playoff contender with seemingly weakened Ohio State and Wisconsin teams in the conference this year.

The opening line seems to favor the idea that Kent State's offense will find a way to score, but that is a bit aggressive. To date, Dustin Crum has thrown only one touchdown against two interceptions, and the offense struggled mightily against Texas A&M in another hostile environment. The Golden Flashes receivers Ja'Shaun Poke, Cephas and Johnson, all check in at 6-feet and under, meaning that Iowa's defensive backs also have a size advantage. On the other side of the ball, the Iowa offense has yet to prove it can score consistently, and may run into trouble against a defense that plays aggressively and has shown a knack for causing turnovers.

Pick: Under 56.5

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New Mexico at Texas A&M (-29.5)

O/U: 51

The New Mexico Lobos, fresh off a 2-0 start with wins over stalwart programs like Houston Baptist and New Mexico State, have earned the opportunity to battle in College Station against the 2-0 Texas A&M Aggies. Kentucky transfer Terry Wilson has been the catalyst on offense, with six touchdowns in the early going against some light competition. The defense, meanwhile, has looked pretty sharp with five turnovers created, which were turned into 17 points. Coach Danny Gonzales is in for a rude awakening when the Lobos find out they're not in Albuquerque anymore. After beating down an FCS team that lost its offensive coordinator, quarterback, and top three wide receivers all via transfer to Western Kentucky, and an FBS program that is miserably ranked as the worst in FBS by most prognosticators, you'll see the resume isn't as sparkling as the 2-0 might suggest.

Coach Jimbo Fisher is 28-10 in his fourth season at College Station, and has recruited at an elite level. For the past three years, Fisher had the luxury of trotting Kellen Mond out at quarterback, but that luxury ended when Mond was selected in the 2021 NFL draft by the Minnesota Vikings. This year, Haynes King won the starting job, but King suffered a fractured leg in the 10-7 win over Colorado last week that will sideline him through October at the earliest. Up to the plate steps Zack Calzada, who completed only 47% of his 38 passes last week and threw an interception in his only pass attempt against Kent State in Week One. With dynamic weapons such as tight end Jalen Wydermyer and wide receiver Ainias Smith at his disposal, Calzada does drop into an enviable opportunity. The defense, spearheaded by defensive tackle DeMarvin Leal, is the true strength of this team that will determine whether or not the Aggies can contend with Alabama and Ole Miss for the SEC West crown. Until Calzada can build some confidence and make more consistent connections with his receivers, I expect a heavy dose of running backs Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane, as the Aggies hope to use this game as a building block for their new quarterback's confidence.

The spread in this game, being at 29.5, would require a 49 point output by Texas A&M with their backup quarterback. Under Jimbo Fisher's leadership, the Aggies barely held on against a middling Colorado team last week and needed a pair of interceptions to produce scores to break the forty-point barrier against Kent State. Expect the run game to be utilized heavily early and often, and the clock to be churning.

Pick: Under 51

Oklahoma State at Boise State (-4)

O/U: 57.5

It's not often that a Group of Five school is favored over a Power Five school, but coach Mike Gundy's Cowboys enter this weekend's game in Boise with just that predicament. Less-than-thrilling single digit wins over Missouri State and Tulsa have dampened the mood on a team that some saw as a Big 12 sleeper this year. The offense missed quarterback Spencer Sanders in the opener (COVID protocols), but he returned and shook off the rust against Tulsa in a 28-23 win last week. Coach Gundy, in his 17th year coaching his alma mater,

Coach Andy Avalos, a former Boise State linebacker, enters his third game as a collegiate coach with a 1-1 record. After building a lead on the road against UCF, the Broncos witnessed Dillon Gabriel tear the team apart to a comeback victory. Luckily, the Broncos scheduled UTEP for Week Two, giving Boise State and coach Avalos their first win of the season. Junior quarterback Hank Bachmeier has started portions of the last three seasons with mixed results, such as a road win over Florida State as a freshman and a poor showing taking four sacks and completing less than 50% of his passes in the 2020 Mountain West Championship game. Which Bachmeier will we get in 2021? It's hard to say, with a pedestrian performance against UCF followed by a strong bounce-back last week. Bachmeier's weapons are primarily senior receivers Khalil Shakir and Octavius Evans, while sophomore running back George Holani provides some juice on the ground. For the Broncos to pull off the rare win over a Power Five opponent, they will need the defense to play at a higher level, having given up 336 yards last week to a very lowly UTEP squad, and also committing seven penalties.

Coaching experience favors Oklahoma State heavily in this matchup, as does quarterback play. While neither defense looks as strong as the teams would like, the Cowboys' defense features more highly recruited, and hopefully for them more talented, players at nearly every position. Boise State has built a dominant Group of Five program over the years, thanks to their mid-2000s Fiesta Bowl run with Jared Zabransky at the helm, but they still get lapped by nearly every Power Five school in terms of recruiting rankings. The blue turf and possibly a Week Two Bachmeier performance could make me regret this pick, but siding with the Power Five and experienced coach seems like the play here.

Pick: Oklahoma State money line +180

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