RADIO
We only have 44 games for our Saturday this week. There were nine games before Saturday, which was a season-high sans Week 1. We had the Fun Belt on Wednesday, which wasn't so fun on the wallet. We had busy four-game Thursdays and Fridays. This is where the season gets really fun!
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I had a good week last week, but am already down four points this week since Appalachian State showed up this time around and ousted Coastal Carolina from the ranks of the unbeaten. That's a lot of wasted green on App State over the last two weeks....
We're here for the Saturday extravaganza though! It begins now!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Cincy is a really good team, but that's a ton of points against a team like Navy. On the road, no less. I want to say that it's too many, but I've watched enough of Cincinnati this year that I know it's not. Give me the Bearcats, but I'm lowering the bet.
(3)Oklahoma(-38.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wow, that's a lot of points. It's also Kansas. Give me the Sooners.
Northwestern at (6)Michigan(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Northwestern's offense is playing much better under Ryan Hilinski, which means the defense is inherently better. Michigan still isn't really built to cover lines like this. I'll take Northwestern. They're still going to lose convincingly, but not by this much.
Illinois at (7)Penn State(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is up to 25 in some spots. I'm done pretending like Illinois is a good team on either side of the ball. I hate the number, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the Illini got blanked. Give me Penn State.
(16)Wake Forest(-3.5) at Army
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ball State's passing attack was able to get to the Knights. I have to think that at some point Wake's does too. I'll take the Deacons.
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Massachusetts at Florida State(-35.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Stay far away from this one. UMass gives bad a bad name. We need to attach other superlatives to even begin to describe their brand of football. However, there is no part of me that think Florida State can get out of their own way enough to cover this. This team lost to Jacksonville State (who is likely better than UMass) earlier this year. I can't believe I'm doing this, but give me UMass....
Kansas State at Texas Tech(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not much of a believer in Henri Colombi, but the Texas Tech backs are good if they can run. K-State is solid on both sides of the ball for the most part, but they aren't good anywhere. Still, K-State's three conference losses are to Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Oklahoma by a combined 30 points. Texas Tech got 70 hung on them by the Longhorns and 52 by TCU. Give me the Wildcats.
Eastern Michigan(-3.5) at Bowling Green
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Bowling Green lost outright to Akron two weeks ago. Give me the Eagles.
Northern Illinois at Central Michigan(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Chippewas are likely a better team with Daniel Richardson back under center, but NIU is a really solid team. It looks like freshman Harrison Waylee is still out, but Antario Brown and Jay Ducker have filled in nicely. Still, I don't think I can trust Rocky Lombardi to go win this game for the Huskies if they need him to. I'll take CMU.
Syracuse at Virginia Tech(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What reason do we have to think the Hokies can win this? The win over North Carolina doesn't hold as much weight with a blowout loss to Pitt. Still, this defense has only allowed 100 points through six games. I have to take Virginia Tech here.
Kent State(-5.5) at Ohio
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kent's putrid play in the second halves of football games is a bit of a concern, but they will likely be far enough up on the Bobcats that it wont matter. Give me Kent.
Texas State at Georgia State(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is a tough ask for the Panthers against anyone. I liked it better when it opened at 9. Georgia State's ball control offense is likely good enough to grind the Bobcats into submission, but I'm lowering the bet because of that half.
Wisconsin(-3.5) at (25)Purdue
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
As much as I rag on Graham Mertz for making poor decisions, even he wont throw four interceptions here. Yes, Mertz is worse than Spencer Petras. I also believe the Wisconsin defense to be comparable to Iowa's and the running backs to be better. Give me Wisconsin. This feels low.
(8)Oklahoma State at Iowa State(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Say what now? Just ship my money. Cowboys still win outright. Even if they don't, they damn sure wont lose by more than one score.
(10)Oregon at UCLA(-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Honestly, I'm shocked that this line opened with Oregon favored at all. UCLA has played much better football than the Ducks for the last month or so. Travis Dye is just fine, but I don't trust Anthony Brown to go into the Rose Bowl and win. Give me UCLA.
LSU at (12)Mississippi(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Matt Corral has looked much more consistent than last year and this offense still has some dangerous receivers. The Land Sharks aren't going to get gashed like Florida did and LSU is back on the road. Give me Ole Miss.
Clemson at (23)Pittsburgh(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't like the half. This is another one of those lines that shouldn't have opened with Clemson favored. Pitt wont have such as easy road here, but they have finally achieved some balance on offense. I think that's enough to beat Clemson, but I'm lowering the bet a touch because of that half.
Rice at UAB(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm not surprised. If you are taking UAB though, just be aware that they will make you sweat it. I'm taking the Blazers, but I don't want this headache.
Maryland at Minnesota(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
What does beating Nebraska mean right now? Probably not a whole lot. However, no part of me trusts this Maryland defense, especially the run defense. I'll take the Gophers.
Miami(OH) at Ball State(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Redhawks defense is good enough to make Ball State work for it, but the offense has little chance of keeping up. Give me the Cardinals.
Western Michigan(-1.5) at Toledo
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Will the real Toledo please stand up? Or just lay down and get trampled. I don't care. Give me the Broncos. At least I have some idea of what they're going to do when they take the field.
Buffalo(-11.5) at Akron
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is all over the place and I'm not a bit surprised. I haven't seen anything from Buffalo that suggests that they can cover a line like this, even against Akron. The Zips are improving enough to keep this in single digits. I'll take Akron.
Colorado at California(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Fun's over, Colorado. Now you have to play a real defense again. Give me Cal.
BYU(-4.5) at Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
You know, I really like what I'm seeing from the Cougars. This is a deep and talented offense and they can stop the run. I like Wazzu outright on the Paloose.
New Mexico at Wyoming(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I know New Mexico sucks, but you aren't going to convince me that Wyoming is much better. They could run the best version of their offense and maybe not even score three touchdowns. Give me the Lobos, I guess....
Mississippi State(-20.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line has dropped three points already. I like this a lot more now, but the Bulldogs getting thrashed by Bama isn't outside the realm of expected outcomes. They have the firepower to cover double this line. Give me the Leaches.
Liberty(-21.5) at North Texas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Uh...no way. No way I'm betting this. Liberty looked damn awful last week. North Texas looks damn awful every week. I know the Mean Green defense is terrible, so I'll side with Malik Willis and Liberty. I don't have confidence in them anymore though.
Boston College at Louisville(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I see why this line is falling. Boston College's defense will get after you. Still, Malik Cunningham should be able to handle the Eagles. I'll take Louisville.
East Carolina at Houston(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like ECU and I like the way they play. However, they have been noticeably worse on the road for the last couple of years and I don't trust their defense. Give me Houston.
Tennessee at (4)Alabama(-25.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. Tennessee's defense is better than Mississippi State. The Vols wont be smoking those stogies this year, but I don't think they just lie down again either. Give me Tennessee.
(22)San Diego State at Air Force(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line says it all. The Aztecs are posers. This Falcons defense is right there with San Jose State's and maybe even a little better. Air Force is going to roll at home. I'll take the Falcons
(24)UTSA(-6.5) at Louisiana Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Roadrunners have made me some coin this year. I'm not bailing out now that they're ranked! Give me the Roadrunners!
Western Kentucky(-14.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This feels really low with how much FIU has struggled against the pass. Bailey Zappe is in for another huge game. WKU wins BIG!
Temple at South Florida(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I don't know that we can trust Jimmy McClain enough to bet a college fund on this, but the USF run game is going to be a huge problem for Temple. I'll take the Bulls.
South Alabama(-13.5) at Louisiana-Monroe
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
If the Warhawks hadn't manhandled a Liberty team that was getting votes for the top 25 last week, I wouldn't even think about this. Now? This is a tough line for South Alabama to cover. Jake Bentley has this offense moving well, but this is a tough ask on the road. I'll take USA, but there's no way I would bet this.
Nevada at Fresno State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bulldogs feel like they're slipping. Carson Strong is hitting his stride and the Wolf Pack have some good receivers. I'll take Nevada outright, but I still don't have a ton of confidence in it.
(5)Ohio State(-21.5) at Indiana
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The absolutely brutal schedule for the Hoosiers has broken them. You can see it in the players. I'll take the Nuts.
USC at (13)Notre Dame(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This has nothing to do with whether I think the Irish are a good team or not. It has everything to do with team morale for USC right now. Give me the Irish. This feels low.
South Carolina at (17)Texas A&M(-19.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like spreads this big with a team that doesn't have a super explosive offense. The South Carolina defense has been the best part of the team. I don't think it gets this far out of hand. Give me the Gamecocks.
(18)North Carolina State(-3.5) at Miami(FL)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Hurricanes have had trouble stopping the run and turn the ball over at a pretty alarming rate. Jaylan Knighton is about the only thing keeping me from betting more than I should on the Wolfpack. Give me NC State.
Georgia Tech at Virginia(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I trust the Hoos marginally more than the Wreck, especially at home. Brennan Armstrong is a special player, and once again, the Virginia receivers are going to be a real problem. Give me Virginia.
West Virginia at TCU(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Look, Max Duggan is not as good as Oklahoma made him look. The West Virginia defense is good enough to win this and I don't think TCU stops Leddie Brown. Give me the Mountaineers and I much prefer the under 57 than the spread. This is going to be an ugly game.
Utah(-3.5) at Oregon State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Utes are playing really good football right now and that defense is still a strong unit. I like Oregon State, in particular B.J. Baylor, but the Utah D is good enough to win this. I'll take the Utes.
New Mexico State at Hawaii(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This looks a little high, but jet lag has gotten to better teams than the Aggies. I'll take Hawaii. Dae Dae Hunter and Calvin Turner could have monster games.
I went light at the top this week with only two five-point bets and four four-point bets. I also have a season-high 12 one-pointers. I did make up for it with 17 three pointers. The other remaining 18 are worth two. I'm not going to gain or lose a lot this week. I don't see a ton of spots that I like, but I'm going to hammer the Oklahoma State line for as long as it sits above a touchdown. Good luck out there!
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