X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump - Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen

Rick Lucks previews the fantasy prospects of Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen to determine whether they will help fantasy baseball rosters in 2018.

Five-tool players are among the most sought after commodities in all of fantasy baseball. This is a great thing if they are performing the way you expected them to, but most owners give ex-five tool guys a much longer leash than anyone else on their roster. They end up dropping points in the standings as a result, swearing that they will never roster that guy again to get him back.

Real MLB players couldn't care less about your fantasy team, so any effort at retribution is misguided. Instead, ex-five tool guys should be considered based on their skills today. For example, both Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen used to be pieces to build a fantasy team around. They're not those players anymore, but that doesn't mean that you should avoid them entirely.

Of course, it's also important to bow out of the bidding if it starts getting out of hand. Here is a realistic look at what each player will produce in 2018.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Curtis Granderson (OF, TOR)

Granderson's .212 batting average was low enough to sink your average category last year, but his .323 OBP and 26 long balls still provided some value. It would be hard to expect another BABIP as low as Granderson's .228  last year, but nothing close to a full rebound to his career .292 should be expected.

Multiple factors contributed to Granderson's horrific BABIP last year. He's extremely prone to the shift, facing it in 268 of 303 possible PAs in 2017. His 65.4% Pull% on ground balls and .235 batting average against it suggest that he will continue to be shifted virtually every time up, preventing his .206 BABIP on grounders from approaching his .226 career mark.

Granderson is also not the athlete he used to be, as his Statcast Sprint Speed declined from a scorching 27.7 ft./sec in 2015 to a league average 27.o in 2016 before bottoming out last year at 26.6. He's now below average in footspeed, preventing him from beating out hits he used to be able to while simultaneously putting an end to his running game (6-for-8 in SB attempts last year).

Swapping out Citi Field and Dodger Stadium for the Rogers Centre could also boost Granderson's average slightly, as the former two ballparks each suppressed left-handed singles (Park factors of 96 and 98, respectively) while Toronto offered a little boost (103).

Granderson hit fewer line drives last season than he typically does (18.6% LD% vs. 21% career), giving him room for positive regression this year. His FB% (42.1% in 2016 to 48.8%) and IFFB% (4.5% to 13.8%) both surged to unprecedented heights that seem likely to normalize in the coming year as well. He'll still have a fly ball-profile with maybe more pop-ups than you'd like to see, but it'll at least be better than last year.

His airborne contact quality was actually better last season, suggesting that Granderson remains a viable source of power numbers. He set a Statcast Era best with a 10.9% rate of Brls/BBE, besting his 2016 (7.1%) and 2015 (8.3%) marks substantially. His 93 mph average airborne exit velocity also reversed 2016's decline in that area (91.7 mph), nearly reaching his 2015 mark of 93.2 mph. Finally, he pulled more of his fly balls (36.3%) than he has over his career (31.2%).

Granderson's ballpark switch could also help pad his HR totals. Citi Field suppresses left-handed power (92 HR Factor), while the Dodgers didn't deploy him consistently enough to take advantage of Dodger Stadium's 106 HR factor for LHB. Toronto only had a 95 HR factor for LHB last year, but it was 110 as recently as 2016. Rogers Centre is known for being power-friendly, so the park switch should be viewed as a strong positive.

Roster Resource also has Granderson penciled into the leadoff slot, a role Granderson may be well suited for given his 13.5% BB% and 21.6% chase rate. He also posted a career best 8.6% SwStr%, but still ran a 23.3% K% by virtue of being entirely too patient at the plate (38.2% Swing% last year). Toronto's offseason is probably far from done, so current lineup projections should be viewed skeptically. Still, a favorable spot in Toronto's offense may be enough to justify Granderson's cost on its own.

Granderson is best utilized in daily formats because he has never quite solved left-handed pitching (.223/296/.401 career, .202/.274/.394 last year). Obviously, he's also better in formats replacing batting average with OBP. If you use him as the long side of a platoon in the right format, the 37-year old has profit potential in fantasy.

Verdict: Champ

 

Andrew McCutchen (OF, SF)

McCutchen's .279/.363/.486 triple slash line with 28 HR and 11 SB (five CS) in 2017 was a nice bounce back after 2016's disappointing .256/.336/.430 with 24 HR and more CS (seven) than steals (six). However, he has become the latest Giants reclamation project, as the team continues to collect aging offensive players who will struggle in the league's worst offensive park.

To be fair, Pittsburgh's 90 HR factor for RHB last season worked against McCutchen, and he still compiled a 16.4% HR/FB (13.1% career). San Francisco is even tougher (86 HR Factor), and both the outfielder's average airborne exit velocity (93.4 mph vs. 94 in 2016 and 95.1 in 2015) and rate of Brls/BBE (7.7% vs. 8.5% and 9.5%) trended in the wrong direction last year despite surface success. He pulled slightly fewer fly balls as well (21.1% vs. 22.7% career), making a significantly lower HR/FB in 2018 the safest projection.

McCutchen's .305 BABIP was fine, but his career mark of .328 could go a long way toward making up for reduced power numbers. Sadly, last season's .231 BABIP on ground balls is probably more realistic than his career mark of .291. His average exit velocity on grounders nosedived last year (83.6 mph vs. 86.5 in 2016 and 85.6 in 2015), while his Statcast Sprint Speed held constant (28.5 ft./sec vs. 28.4 in 2016). Pittsburgh and San Francisco posted identical 1B Park factors of 103 last year, so the ballpark switch should not have an impact on his average this year.

McCutchen had a lower FB% (41.7% in 2016, 37.4% last year) and IFFB% (12.6% to 8.2%) last year, and his LD% was normal (21.9% LD% vs. 21.2% career). These indicators should have allowed McCutchen to best his career BABIP, so the fact that he didn't is sobering for his future prospects. His SB success rate also left something to be desired at roughly 69 percent, suggesting that he lost some acceleration that Sprint Speed does not measure.

McCutchen still has a reasonable floor thanks to excellent plate discipline metrics. His 11.2% BB% last year was rooted in a strong 25% chase rate, making him a safe bet for OBP in formats that care. His 17.8% K% was also supported by a SwStr% of 8.7%, McCutchen's best since 2011. Favorable K% rates are becoming increasingly difficult to find, giving McCutchen batting average upside that many of his brethren lack.

Still, it seems likely that someone in your league will be willing to pay for prime McCutchen on a pennant contender, and neither part of that scenario seems very likely. The prudent move is to pass.

Verdict: Chump

 

More 2018 Player Outlooks




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Landen Roupp

Carted Off With Apparent Knee Injury
Devaughn Vele

Traded to Saints
Demarcus Robinson

Issued Three-Game Suspension
Lamar Jackson

Dealing With Minor Foot Injury
Lamar Jackson

Suffers Apparent Hand Injury
Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista has Surgery on Torn Rotator Cuff
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Bounce Back at Tour Championship
Corey Conners

Looking to Reverse Struggles at East Lake
Joe Mixon

Could Begin Season on PUP List
Cameron Young

Stays Hot Ahead of Tour Championship
Harris English

Aims for Complete Game at East Lake
Sepp Straka

Back in Action at East Lake
Ben Griffin

a Strong Value Play at East Lake
Bubba Chandler

to Join Pirates on Friday
Rory McIlroy

Chasing Another Win at East Lake
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for 30th at BMW Championship
Ludvig Aberg

Finishes Tied For Seventh at BMW Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Keegan Bradley

Finishes Tied for 17th at BMW Championship
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Second at BMW Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 23rd at BMW Championship
Scottie Scheffler

Wins BMW Championship
Brian Robinson Jr.

Not Expected to Play for Commanders This Year
Kenley Jansen

Considered Day-to-Day With a "Physical" Injury
Rashee Rice

Could be Facing 4-6 Game Suspension?
Harry Hall

Hot at the Right Time for Tour Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound at Tour Championship
Jacob Bridgeman

has One Weakness Heading to Atlanta
Nikola Vučević

Nikola Vucevic Not Expecting to Be Moved Before the Season
Nick Taylor

a Long Shot to Win Tour Championship
Josh Giddey

Bulls Not Interested in Sign-and-Trade Deal Involving Josh Giddey
Brian Harman

Trying to Crack Top 20 at Tour Championship
Andrew Novak

Attempts to Bounce Back in Atlanta
Oscar Tshiebwe

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Jazz
Justin Rose

Seeks Even More Success at Tour Championship
Washington Wizards

Alondes Williams Joins Wizards for Training Camp
Washington Wizards

Wizards Add Skal Labissiere for Training Camp
Francisco Alvarez

Needs Thumb Surgery, May Play Through Injury
Willy Adames

Out With Side Soreness on Tuesday
A.J. Brown

on Track to Play in Week 1
Jacob deGrom

Being Skipped in Rotation Due to Shoulder Fatigue
Adley Rutschman

Scratched on Tuesday With Abdominal Discomfort
CBJ

Brendan Smith Joins Blue Jackets on Tryout Deal
STL

Milan Lucic Joins Blues for Tryout
DET

Red Wings Pick Up Travis Hamonic
Austin Riley

Doesn't Appear Ready to Return Any Time Soon
Aaron Judge

Unikely to Throw Normally Again This Year
Jalen McMillan

Could be Out Through Week 9 Bye
Indiana Pacers

Pacers Coach Rick Carlisle Agrees to a Multiyear Contract Extension on Tuesday
Washington Wizards

John Wall Retires After 11 NBA Seasons
Daniel Jones

Named as Colts Starting Quarterback
Jalen McMillan

Will Not Be Ready for Season Opener
Collin Sexton

Hornets Have High Hopes for Collin Sexton
Rui Hachimura

Likely to Start Season Without Contract Extension
Jaime Jaquez Jr.

Hopes to Bounce Back in 2025-26
Stephen Curry

Ready to Go for New Season
Orlando Magic

Lester Quinones Agrees to Deal With Magic
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Cleared to Play on Tuesday Night
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Pulled With Hamstring Tightness
MLB

Game 2 of Brewers-Cubs on Monday Postponed
Bryce Miller

to be Activated on Tuesday
Kyle Tucker

to Get Multiple Days Off
Shane Bieber

to Make Season Debut on Friday
Joe Mixon

Could Start Season on NFI List
Zack Wheeler

has Surgery to Remove Blood Clot
De'Von Achane

Unlikely to Practice This Week
Justin Jefferson

Returning to Practice
Chris Godwin

Bucs Chris Godwin Likely to Start Season on PUP List
Joe Flacco

Browns Name Joe Flacco as Their Week 1 Starter
Jalen McDaniels

Inks Deal With New Orleans
N'Faly Dante

Signs Deal With Hawks
Matthew Stafford

Practicing on Monday
Dru Smith

Agrees to Deal With Heat
Austin Dillon

Scores an Upset Victory at Richmond
William Byron

Clinches the Regular Season Championship Title at Richmond
Denny Hamlin

Pit-Road Struggles Impede Denny Hamlin's Chances of a Top Finish at Richmond
Joey Logano

Earns A Fourth-Place Finish at Richmond
Kyle Larson

Rallies to A Top-10 Finish at Richmond
Malik Nabers

Dealing With Back Injury
Khamzat Chimaev

Is The New UFC Middleweight Champion
Dricus Du Plessis

Gets Dominated At UFC 319
Aaron Pico

Suffers Knockout Loss In His UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Scores Stunning First-Round Knockout
Leodalis De Vries

Earns Promotion to Double-A
Nathaniel Lowe

Finalizing Deal with Boston
Geoff Neal

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Ketel Marte

Arizona Could Trade Ketel Marte in the Offseason
Carlos Prates

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Page

Dominates At UFC 319
Jared Cannonier

Gets Outclassed
Tim Elliott

Gets Submission Win
Kai Asakura

Still Winless In The UFC
Austin Cindric

has Arguably his Best Run of the Season at Richmond
Ryan Blaney

Contends for First Richmond Win but Comes Up Short
Alex Bowman

Finishes Second but Loses Ground in Playoffs
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Sets Personal Laps-Led Record at Richmond
Chris Buescher

Falls Out of Playoffs After Miserable Richmond Run
Coby White

Bulls Not Interested in Trading Coby White
Dereck Lively II

Expected to be Ready for Camp
Brian Robinson Jr.

Commanders "Shopping" Brian Robinson Jr.
John Metchie III

Texans Trade John Metchie III to Eagles
Victor Scott II

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Listening to Trade Offers for Trey Hendrickson
Marcelo Mayer

to Have Season-Ending Wrist Surgery
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Likely Avoids Serious Injury
Denny Hamlin

the Heavy Favorite to Win at Richmond
Christopher Bell

Has Been Great at Richmond
Tyrese Haliburton

No Longer Using a Scooter, Crutches
Ryan Blaney

Can Ryan Blaney Finally Break Through at Richmond?
Joey Logano

Will Start Last at Richmond After Practice Trouble
Chase Elliott

Lack of Top-Line Speed Hurts his DFS Potential
Kyle Larson

Recent String of Crashes Make Him a Big Risk at Richmond
William Byron

Probably Slightly Too Inconsistent at Richmond to Start for DFS
Ryan Preece

on Pole at Richmond as Playoff Deadline Looms Closer
Brad Keselowski

Probably the Best RFK Racing DFS Option at Richmond
Chase Briscoe

Still Figuring Out Richmond
Chris Buescher

a Solid Choice for DFS Play, but Teammates Look Faster
Haywood Highsmith

Dealt to Brooklyn on Friday
Khamzat Chimaev

A Favorite At UFC 319
Dricus Du Plessis

Set For His Third Title Defense
Aaron Pico

Set For UFC Debut
Lerone Murphy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Geoff Neal

Looks For His Second Win In A Row
Michael Page

Set For His Second Middleweight Bout
Jared Cannonier

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kai Asakura

Looks For His First UFC Win
Tim Elliott

Set To Open Up UFC 309 Main Card
CBJ

Mikael Pyyhtia Re-Signs With Blue Jackets for One Year
UTA

Caleb Desnoyers Expected to Miss 12 Weeks After Wrist Procedure
Tyson Foerster

on Track to Be Healthy for Season Opener
NHL

Olivier Rodrigue Signs KHL Deal
NHL

Emil Bemstrom to Join Swiss Team

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP