Champ or Chump: Adolis Garcia

Fantasy managers generally look for certain qualities when evaluating prospects. We like younger players who post dominant numbers on the farm. We like prospects with raw tools that make scouts salivate, leading to appearances on top prospect lists. We like players who we had heard of before the season started.

Adolis Garcia checks none of those boxes and that makes him interesting to evaluate. The 28-year-old rookie is slashing .291/.329/.603 with 14 HR and five steals for the Texas Rangers thus far, establishing himself as the everyday centerfielder and cleanup hitter for the team. Despite that, he was never regarded as a top prospect and received a future value of just 35+ in his final FanGraphs scouting report. He was old for most of his MiLB stops and his stat lines there are more good than great.

The Cuban defector's plate discipline isn't good, but his contact quality is something special. This author feels that the end of Garcia's MLB tenure will be brutal to watch, but that his physical skills will allow him to enjoy several good seasons before he gets there. Let's look at why.

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Interesting Fantasy Skills on the Farm

Garcia signed with the Yomiuri Giants in Japan for 2016, but didn't play any games there. He made his professional debut in 2017 for Double-A Springfield in the St. Louis Cardinals organization. The team must have thought that Garcia was an advanced prospect because it's rare for a MiLB career to start in the high minors, and he made them look good with a respectable .285/.339/.476 triple-slash line with 12 homers and 12 steals over 342 PAs.

His eight CS were far too many and he didn't demonstrate any particular aptitude for power hitting with a 35.9 FB% and 14.5% HR/FB, but it was a strong debut. His 7.6 BB% and 22.5 K% were both solid if unspectacular and he ran a reasonable .338 BABIP. Springfield is a hitter's haven with a 1.287 HR factor that ranked in the 89th percentile of the MiLB landscape (and the 64th percentile for BABIP) in 2019, but the Cardinals still decided that his performance merited a midseason promotion to Triple-A Memphis.

Garcia's line improved in Memphis as he hit .301/.342/.478 with three homers and steals over 147 PAs, and he was only caught stealing once. Sadly, the rest of his peripherals took a nosedive. His BB% plunged to just 4.8 while his K% largely held steady at 21.1. His FB% ticked downward to 34.3% while his 8.8% HR/FB was a fraction of his Double-A mark. He would be a completely different player the next season.

Garcia returned to Memphis in 2018 and slashed .256/.281/.500 with 22 HR and 10 SB over 428 PAs. His 3.3 BB% was very low, and his K% ticked up to 23.1. He also added a ton of fly balls to his profile, posting a 47.9 FB% and 15% HR/FB at the cost of running a .283 BABIP. He was caught stealing three times. In short, he became an all-or-nothing slugger who could steal the occasional base as opposed to the more well-rounded skill set he demonstrated in 2017. The Cardinals gave him a brief look in the majors that year, but he appeared in more games (21) than he recorded plate appearances (17).

Garcia was even more of an all-or-nothing slugger in 2019 for Memphis, slashing .253/.301/.517 with 32 HR and 14 SB in 529 PAs. His 10 CS meant that his success rate was nowhere near strong enough to run at the MLB level, while his 52 FB% dominated his batted ball profile. He walked slightly more at a 4.2% clip, but gave it all back with a 30.1 K%. His 18.7 HR/FB and .305 BABIP were higher than the previous year, likely the result of the ball that turned all of Triple-A into Coors Field in 2019. The Cardinals rewarded him by designating him for assignment in December.

That sounds bleak, but Garcia's performance was probably better than it looked. Memphis was a pitcher's park from 2017-19, posting a 97 HR factor and 93 BABIP factor per MiLB.com. It finished in the 87th percentile for HR and 61st for BABIP in 2019, but both of those marks are pitcher-friendly compared to the rest of Triple-A that season. The Rangers saw something they liked and acquired him, giving him seven big league PAs and the rest of the shortened season at the alternate training site in 2020.

Big Bat Booms: From DFA to Stardom

We don't know what the Rangers did with Garcia at the alternate training site, but you can't fake some of the metrics he's putting up this year. He's probably not going to sustain a 31.1% HR/FB all season, but he ranks in the top-20 among qualified hitters in both average airborne exit velocity (96.8 mph, 17th) and rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event (18.5%, sixth). He also hits 41.7% of his batted balls in the air, a stat that suggests he knows how to make the most of his pop. The power is real.

Garcia is striking out 27.3% of the time against a paltry 5 BB%, and both metrics are backed by his relatively high 41.2% chase rate and low 81 Z-Contact%. That said, he didn't strike out that often in the minors outside of 2019, so some growth could be expected. His 16.2 SwStr% is pretty ugly though. He'll never walk, so his OBP will always be at the mercy of the BABIP gods. His 28.1 ft./sec Statcast Sprint and low 54.8 Pull% on ground balls make Garcia shift-proof, and he's hitting .405 in his 42 PAs against it (.255 in 57 PAs without it).

The whole profile bears similarities to Javier Baez of the Chicago Cubs, even extending to the strong defensive reputation that both players enjoy. In fantasy the homers will be there and they'll both steal a few bags, though not with ideal success rates (Garcia is five-for-eight on the year). Their batting averages depend on their BABIP, ranging from plus to total dumpster fire. You don't know exactly what you're getting, but the power, speed, and prominent lineup spot should make the net package a plus.

The Final Verdict

Nobody is as good as Garcia has looked thus far, but his xBA of .275 and xSLG of .562 would both be great for fantasy managers even if we assume that his K% remains unchanged. The Rangers are not a contending club and their offense has to run to try and score, so he'll probably keep attempting steals even if his success rate wouldn't fly on other teams. Add in the power and Garcia is a Champ for the rest of the season.

Unfortunately, this profile looks ugly when things go south. If you had Javier Baez and his 57 wRC+ in 2020, then you know exactly how bad it can get. Fantasy managers in dynasty or keeper leagues may want to consider trading Garcia at the peak of his value even though there's nothing wrong yet. Therefore, Garcia looks like a Chump over the longer term.

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