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Joshua Costello looks at fantasy baseball breakout hitters, risers, and potential sleepers for the rest of the season, written in Week 15. He looks into Statcast data to identify hitter breakouts.
Welcome RotoBallers to our fantasy baseball breakout hitters article for Week 15. As always, we are here to bring you a few MLB hitters whose advanced metrics are popping out.
My name is Joshua Costello, and I will be giving you 3-5 hitter names that seem to have sustainable improved production this season. Most of these names will be young hitters because that is the nature of a breakout. There will be exceptions from time-to-time as well as I give you more well-known and well-established names that seem to have made a change to their profile this year.
For full transparency, I also track the picks every week, so you can go back and see who I picked. There will be some misses, but hopefully, we'll have enough hits to make this a worthwhile endeavor. I'll give you the tracker first, and then we'll get into the four names we're picking for this week.
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2023 Breakout Picks Tracker
| Week | Date | Breakout Picks |
| Week 3 | 4/12 | Logan O'Hoppe, Miguel Vargas, Nolan Gorman, Josh Lowe, Brandon Marsh |
| Week 4 | 4/19 | Jarred Kelenic, Ian Happ, Luis Garcia, Kerry Carpenter, Brent Rooker |
| Week 5 | 4/26 | Jack Suwinski, James Outman, Nico Hoerner, LaMonte Wade Jr., Cody Bellinger |
| Week 6 | 5/2 | Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, Jonah Heim, Edward Olivares, Jorge Mateo |
| Week 7 | 5/9 | Ezequiel Duran, Triston Casas, Joey Gallo, Zach McKinstry, Ke'Bryan Hayes |
| Week 8 | 5/16 | Alex Kirilloff, Matt McLain, Zach Neto, Taylor Walls |
| Week 9 | 5/23 | Josh Jung, Brett Baty, Ryan Noda, Esteury Ruiz |
| Week 10 | 5/30 | Riley Greene, Leody Taveras, Seiya Suzuki |
| Week 11 | 6/8 | Luke Raley, Keibert Ruiz, Lane Thomas, Jake Burger |
| Week 12 | 6/15 | Evan Longoria, Tommy Pham, Anthony Rendon, Miguel Rojas |
| Week 13 | 6/22 | Max Kepler, Gunnar Henderson, Jeimer Candelario, Andy Ibanez |
| Week 14 | 6/29 | Jordan Walker, Patrick Bailey, Mike Tauchman |
Let's get to the picks for Week 15!
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the best young players in baseball and appears to have taken a step forward from his rookie season. In 150 games last year, Witt Jr. slashed .254/.294/.428 with 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases. The slash line is nearly identical this season at .254/.296/.430, but the young shortstop is on pace to beat almost every counting stat from last season, and his expected stats suggest there is still room for his numbers to improve.
The numbers suggest that Witt Jr. is maturing as a hitter, and that maturation can be seen in his plate discipline. In his second season, the 23-year-old has decreased his strikeout rate and increased his walk rate by nearly a percentage point. His walk rate remains low compared to the league average, but he is taking steps in the right direction.
Another slight change has been a drop in launch angle from 16.8 to 15.7, leading to a 2% increase in line drive rate. Line drives turn into hits at a higher rate than ground balls and fly balls, so the hitters with the highest batting averages tend to have the highest line drive rates in the league. Despite a higher line drive rate, the young slugger's BABIP is down this season, suggesting that he might be getting unlucky.
In 2023, the Royals' shortstop has also increased his HardHit% by 6%, his Barrel% by 2%, and his average exit velocity by nearly a mile per hour. All these slight changes equate to an xBA of .288 and an xwOBA of .357, both significantly higher than his actual numbers. Bobby Witt Jr. is one of the most exciting young players in the league, and fantasy managers who do not roster him should send out offers because we may have yet to see his true potential.
Jesus Sanchez, Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins outfielder Jesus Sanchez has been between Triple-A and the majors since 2020, but he's always been a slugger no matter where he played. If we discount his 2020 season, when he only had 29 plate appearances in 10 total games, it is apparent that Sanchez has consistently been an above-average slugger at the major league level.
Among hitters with at least 180 at-bats this season, Sanchez ranks 62nd in slugging, but his xSLG is about 30 points higher than his actual slugging. His xSLG sits at .505, which ranks 32nd among those hitters. One of the major issues with Sanchez has always been his strikeout rate. The young slugger has always had a strikeout rate of over 26% in the majors, which can lead to some ugly slumps when he is not making contact.
Sanchez has also had an issue with ground balls. This season, the young outfielder carries a ground ball rate of over 51%. Sanchez has plus power with an average exit velocity of over 90 mph and a max exit velocity of nearly 113 mph. His launch angle currently sits at 6.5, the lowest of his career. If he can make a conscious effort to increase his launch angle, Sanchez could be one of the biggest power threats in baseball.
As it stands, Sanchez owns an xBA nearly 30 points higher than his actual batting average. Fantasy managers should keep an eye on the Marlins outfielder, who is widely available in all leagues because he has the potential to break out in the summer months.
David Peralta, Los Angeles Dodgers
Peralta is no longer in the prime of his career, but don't tell him that. The 35-year-old outfielder is quietly having one of the best seasons of his career in Los Angeles this year. Diving into the stats shows the slight changes that Peralta has made to improve his number from his career norms.
The veteran outfielder is striking out 16.1% of the time, the lowest rate of his career. He owns a HardHit% of 52%, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among qualified hitters and is also the highest mark of his career. Peralta's average exit velocity is 91.5 mph, his highest average since 2018 when he hit 30 home runs with the Arizona Diamondbacks. Based on his quality of contact metrics, his xBA is .306, which ranks in the 97th percentile and would once again be a career-high.
Despite his strong numbers this season, Peralta is likely to sit against left-handed pitching due to the talent on the Dodgers roster and the team's affinity for platooning hitters. That said, most pitchers are right-handed, and Peralta's production has earned him a nearly daily role in the lineup. The 35-year-old outfielder is widely available in all leagues. He likely deserves to be more rostered after hitting his sixth home run of the year in Wednesday night's contest against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Yainer Diaz, Houston Astros
Houston Astros catcher Yainer Diaz has been one of baseball's most productive offense catchers this season. Among catchers with at least 100 batted ball events, Diaz ranks fifth in HardHit%, third in average exit velocity, and second in Brls/PA%.
The 24-year-old catcher has been in the Astros system since 2021 and made his major league debut last season. He had nine plate appearances in six games in 2022 before being one of the main catchers on the Astros roster. Diaz appears to have cemented himself on the Astros roster since he is far and away the best offensive catcher on the team.
The young catcher is up to 10 home runs on the season after a two-home-run performance on Wednesday. Fantasy managers seeking to upgrade at the catcher position should look to acquire Diaz, who is less than 20% rostered on most platforms.
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