RADIO
Our second PGA Tour signature event arrives at the Pebble Beach Golf Links where weather seems to be cold, rainy and once Sunday rolls around, VERY windy. As a result of the extremely temperamental conditions that loom over the weekend, we are going to just bet our outrights we decided on Monday morning, with a sprinkle on a long shot T20 as our only placement bet. I hate to not provide a full card for the second time in three weeks, but this article is as much about the picks as it is learning how to become a better bettor. "Sometimes the best bets are the ones you don't make".
It's been a wild week filled with tons of distractions, but most of them have been really good, one of which I will share with you in the first segment of the article because without you, the reader and consumer of our work at RotoBaller, it would not be possible!
For those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver" all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on X an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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The Sweet
WOW! I am so excited and extremely proud to have been lucky enough to make it back onto the Golf Writer of the Year Finalist nominee list. I want to thank Joe Nicely for going out of his way to also submit my Ryder Cup Research article into that category, as I never even knew that was a category I should consider submitting articles to. That ultimately landed me up alongside some titans of the NFL and MLB and their respective research pieces. Golf nudging its way through the thick crowds of the two major sports, is a really exciting outcome that caught me waaaaaaay off guard.
In the final six minutes of my podcast last night I took some time to share my thoughts on the blessings and opportunities that have come my way in abundance the last few years. I will let the video in the tweet do most of the heavy lifting, but finding something you LOVE to do, it makes working hard and finding success that much easier. I want to pass along the joy and happiness of my amazing journey in the golf content world, by encouraging you to identify a passion of yours, make it a hobby and day-by-day, if it is meant to be, work on making that a bigger and more significant part of your life and see where your magic takes you.
Finally, I just want to share my appreciation for you, the readers, who make this possible. Without your eyeballs these articles have no relevance in the world and I am extremely grateful for all of you who read along each week, enduring the ups and downs of the golf betting world along the way. You guys are really a massive part of what we do here at RotoBaller and we look forward to growing as a community with you click by click, sentence by sentence. THANK YOU!
The Sour
Yikes. We were one or two strokes from breaking even in a week most of our guys did not show up, but ultimately landed up getting swept and losing every bet. We never want to rely on one bet to save the card, but Joseph Bramlett parring the final Par 5 18th to miss a T20 by 1 stroke at +750... just a brutally close miss there. Luke List had his worst finish at the event since 2018, which didn't help as we went heaviest on his T40 which he would have cashed if he made more than just the one birdie in R4. The outrights were out of it from the get-go and our investment in Adam Svensson proved very costly.
I would feel a lot worse had all our guys not been close at all, but one or two strokes could have been swung things our way. These kinds of weeks happen and luckily we manage our bankroll accordingly that we can easily bounce back from this when we have the opportunity in future events. I am extremely optimistic about the 2024 betting year ahead and when we start stacking winning weeks here soon, the tough times only make the good times that much more enjoyable.
Outrights ($20)
If you are interested in getting these picks as I make them on Mondays, jump into our premium discord where you will have access to my early bets and if you use code NEW on our platinum Package for only $17.40 a month. You will also have access to Spencer's picks as he makes them too along with EVERYTHING else Spence and our "double cup of Joes" have to offer to RotoBaller subscribers!
We are betting outrights only as we are rolling out the "Nasty Nine" and betting each of them top-5 just doesn't make sense as we need at least two guys to finish T5 to profit in that market.
Sam Burns $4.15 @ 40-1 (FanDuel)
We are going back to Sam Burns who has one of the better good shot percentages in the field (14th). This is going to be a theme of the golfers we are throwing onto our card, as 35% of approach shots will come from this proximity bucket and present the best opportunity to make the necessary birdies early in the week to get towards the top of the leaderboard before we brace for impact on Sunday, if we even play golf then.
Burns is also showing some good form entering the week, tying a course record on the Nicklaus Course which had him winning the AMEX for 70 holes until the two double-bogeys on the final two holes. We get a cheap price on a golfer who has won five times in the last three seasons. The next time he is in the mix, expect him to restore balance to his track record of closing out tournaments.
Nicolai Hojgaard $3.37 @ 50-1 (FanDuel)
The first two golfers on our card have both had a fantastic opportunity to win the last event they played in, with Hojgaard 1 stroke away from a playoff in his second place finish at the Farmers last week. We now get a guy who lead the PGA Tour in proximity to the hole from 100-125 in his 51 attempts from that range. We get 20% of the approach shots from there this week. We get an elite wedge player who is in great form, looking to show the big boys on the PGA Tour that he is here to stay after beating them up with a wedge all week.
Tom Kim $3.37 @ 50-1 (FanDuel)
Our sweet boy, Tom Kim finds himself struggling in his last two starts, but it was only four starts ago that he won a tournament at the Shriners. Guess what Pebble and the Shriners have in common? Both see a 35% rate of shots from 100-150, where Tom Kim ranks 9th in strokes gained and 22nd in good shot %. We have glossed over this area of approach play so far, but we also see 30% of shots coming from 200+ where Tom Kim gains the 10th most strokes in this field. We will block our nose with the putter form, hoping that his flat stick restores itself on these smaller Poa greens which can give anybody nightmares on any given day.
Sahith Theegala $2.10 @ 80-1 (FanDuel)
The good shot king of our outright card shows up at 80-1, in the exciting, volatile form of Sahith Theegala who has a win and a 2nd place finish in his last seven starts. His win came at Silverado Resort where about 35% of shots come from the ... 100-150 yard range. Sahith ranks seventh in good shot rate from 100-150 this week and 9th from 200+. He has both key proximity buckets absolutely covered this week, with his putter hopefully doing most of the damage on these Poa greens as the second-best when rolling the flat stick over these fungi-ish greens from 5-15 feet.
Adam Scott $2.10 @ 80-1 (FanDuel)
He possesses really impressive history here at Pebble Beach in particular. His Spyglass round is going to have be damage limitation city as he has struggled there in the past. But once he steps onto the course they will be playing for three of the four rounds, he owns a +2.6 SG average in the six rounds that span back to the US Open in 2019. He has never gained less than +1.43 strokes on that course, making this week a very enticing opportunity for him to get back to hitting wedges close, 16th in good shot rate from 100 to 150. Scott also ranks fifth in putting on Poa from 5-15 feet, emphatically checking the three boxes of course history, wedge play, and putting. It's go time for the elegant Ozzie.
Tom Hoge $1.68 @ 100-1 (FanDuel)
A past winner here, Tom Hoge hits the third most good shots form 200+, dialing in the long irons into the small greens while entering the week with top 5 form on approach over the last 24 rounds. He is an incredible iron player, not ranking worse than 28th in any of the three main strokes gained proximity buckets this week. Setting the course record at TPC Sawgrass last year, we can expect Hoge to get in the zone with his putter on Poa greens where he tends to putt better than on all surfaces. Hopefully he keeps the craps in the casino and not on the course, which should see him play well at a course he should feel very comfortable on.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout $1.40 @ 120-1 (FanDuel)
The last seven starts for my fellow countryman, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, have had a 2nd, 3rd, T6, T9 and T17 in five of them. Some were back home in SA, while the T6 at the Sanderson Farms and the 2nd place at the AMEX are two high end finishes for him on the PGA Tour which could potentially spill over into a win at a Pebble Beach golf course that will hardly punish his lack of distance off the tee, while his recent spike in iron play the last few starts should see him rolling in a lot of birdie putts. He had four wins on the European Tour in 2019 and 2020 which sprung him like a Springbok onto the PGA Tour where he is eyeing his first win on US soil.
Nick Taylor $1.35 @ 125-1 (FanDuel)
The winner of the RBC Canadian Open really dialed in his wedges to claim the crown of his national open, with about a third of approach shots coming from 100-150 at Oakdale G&CC. If he gets in that groove again, we can see him roll the rock on these Poa greens, gaining strokes at a rate that sees him rank inside the top-20 in that department. He also gains the 13th most strokes from 100-150 on approach. Are you seeing the theme here now? Wedges and good Poa putters who have all won in the past.
Sam Ryder $0.42 @ 400-1 (FanDuel)
We started our card with a Sam and hopefully we can afford an abundance of green eggs and ham if our other Sam takes care of business for us at 400-1. To start the 2023 Sam lead the PGA Tour in putting for the first half of the year. He has also not lost strokes on approach in seven of eight starts with shotlink since July. If we can magically get a spike putting performance from him while he keeps his irons firing, he could add to the mystery of long shot winners taking care of business in 2024.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription? Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, models, projections and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry.
End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings ($15)
$5 Peter Malnati T20 +900 @ BetMGM
If we take a peek at the west coast swing for Malnati dating back to 2020, he has half a dozen top-25 finishes in his twelve starts at Pebble Beach, Torrey Pines, and Riviera. He has three top-20 finishes in that three course stretch in 2023, so hopefully he bounces back to that kind of form this week after missing the cut last week in epic fashion. We can get back about half of our budget we lost last week if he sneaks into T20.
$10 Justin Thomas T10 +230
He's back!!! JT is doing his thing on approach, around the green and ... ON THE GREENS! I never got this excited about a single outright, but at 25-1 I just couldn't trust that JT would win the event, but absolutely believe he finds himself back in the top-10 for the fifth time in as many starts. He has finished T3, 3rd, 4th, and 5th in those five starts, with a T12 to start off that run at the Wyndham.
The reason we are not playing too many placement bets this week is because of the impending wind over the weekend. I don't want my guys getting blown off the course in a bad Sunday wave of golf after playing well through three rounds. BUT, if there is one person who I would say is the best wind player in the world, its Justin Thomas. He is playing good golf again and I feel like he is condition proof for the most part.
The Farewell Fiver ($5)
Round 1 3-ball Parlay $5 to win $97.98 (DraftKings)
- Collin Morikawa grades out exceptionally well for this course and has been great in round one, averaging +3.30 strokes gained in his last seven opening rounds. Weather looks mild enough for him to play target golf on Thursday. He also putts really well on Poa. Aberg is very bad with a wedge in his hand, which makes this a +155 Morikawa vs Spieth, in my mind.
- J.T Poston against the other JT who typically plays better as the event goes on after getting off to a slow start. Tommy Fleetwood is not a very good wedge player and don't like his chances on this course in very scorable conditions.
- Scheffler is easily the better wedge player of this trio and also is middle of the road when putting on Poa. He is the best strokes gainer in R1 R2 and R4 in this field.
Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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