MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (8/7/2025)

Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (8/7/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Shea Langeliers, Brent Rooker, Dominic Canzone, and Cal Raleigh

We have another small MLB slate on Thursday, which becomes the new norm toward the end of the season. We have a lousy four games on today's slate. We have three spots on today's slate where pitchers, park, or weather have me intrigued for the long ball. We will do our best to nail the hitters to leave the yard this Thursday.

I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs on today, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round-robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run is hit.

Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Thursday, August 7, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price so you can get more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.

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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (8/7/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Thursday, August 7:

• Shea Langeliers, Athletics
• Brent Rooker, Athletics
• Dominic Canzone, Seattle Mariners
• Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

Shea Langeliers OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+330 DraftKings)

Our first home run bet of today's slate comes in an afternoon game between the Nationals and Athletics in Nationals Park. It will be in the upper 70s today with a crosswind, so neutral conditions for the long ball.

Mitchell Parker will toe the rubber for the Nats, and the southpaw is our primary target for home runs today. Parker has allowed a 5.43 xFIP, 1.33 HR/9, 42.5% FB, and a 35.4% Hard Hit over his last 30 days. Over his previous two starts, Parker has a 4.62 xFIP, 1.86 HR/9, and a 39.0% Hard Hit.

Righties are the main target here. They are hitting a .275 AVG, .185 ISO, .459 SLG, and 12 home runs this season against him. This includes 30 doubles.

There are two primary right-handed bats in this lineup with a ton of power, and on a small slate, we are going to take a shot on both. Our first target will be catcher Shea Langeliers. Langeliers is slashing .400/.400/662 with a 1.062 OPS against the split this season. He is red hot, slashing .500/.500/1.000 with a 1.500 OPS over his last 20 plate appearances against the southpaws.

"We shouldn't be surprised by his success, but he's got major, major power."

Mark DeRosa breaks down Shea Langeliers' swing adjustments and approach after his 3-HR performance in yesterday's game.@Athletics | #MLBCentral pic.twitter.com/r49HRlTpjA

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) August 6, 2025

Parker has a mixed bag of results against his pitch mix, but he throws three pitches primarily to right-handed hitters. His four-seamer has a .435 SLG and seven home runs against it, his curveball has a .500 SLG and two home runs against it, and his splitter has a .534 SLG and four home runs against it. Below is how Langeliers handles these pitches from southpaws.

Four seamer: 68 pitches, .547 wOBA, .500 ISO, 17 LA, 3 HRs

Curveball: 10 pitches, .221 wOBA, .000 ISO, 0 LA, 0 HR

Splitter: 31 pitches, .531 wOBA, .000 ISO, -3 LA, 0 HR

Langeliers mashes the primary pitch of Parker, which he throws 55% of the time, making this my favorite bet on today's card.

Brent Rooker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 FanDuel)

Brent Rooker is our next lefty masher for the Athletics that we are going to target on today's small slate. Rooker is similar to Langeliers and is mashing left-handed pitching this year. He is slashing .318/.423/.591 with a 1.014 OPS and five home runs.

Brent Rooker hammers a three-run shot 113.3 MPH! pic.twitter.com/MuttfqRoQS

— MLB (@MLB) July 30, 2025

Rooker is also swinging a hot stick, although nothing near what Langeliers is doing. Rooker is slashing .368/.500/.474 with a .974 OPS over his last 24 plate appearances against lefties.

Rooker does handle the secondary pitches of Parker much better than Langeliers, but he doesn't hit the four-seamer as well. Below is how he fares against the mix of Parker.

Four seamer: 87 pitches, .340 wOBA, .179 ISO, 21 LA, 1 HR

Curveball: 29 pitches, .428 wOBA, .200 ISO, 5 LA, 0 HR

Splitter: .494 wOBA, .357 ISO, 6 LA, 1 HR

Ultimately, I want to have some shares of both of these players today because I can assure you that at least one of them will leave the yard this afternoon.

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Dominic Canzone OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600 FanDuel)

Our third home run bet of the day comes in a park that is dead last in home runs allowed between the Mariners and the White Sox at T-Mobile Park in Seattle. Shane Smith will toe the rubber for the White Sox in the final game of their series with the Mariners.

Smith has struggled all season with allowed home runs, but in particular over the last 30 days, he has allowed a 4.14 xFIP, 3.68 HR/9, 46.7% FB, and a 33.3% Hard Hit. He is getting hit hard and in the air often right now.

Lefties have gotten to Smith in a big way in 2025. He is allowing a .229 AVG, .189 ISO, .417 SLG, and eight home runs against the split. Our targets will be on this side of the plate, and two hitters in particular stand out in a big way.

Cal Raleigh and Dominic Canzone both look fantastic here. Canzone in 2025 is slashing .299/.344/.538 with a .882 SLG and seven home runs against right-handed pitching. He is also red hot. Over his last 30 plate appearances, he is slashing .269/.367/.423 with a .790 OPS.

Dominic Canzone, demolished ... No. 7 on the season and ties this game here in the 2nd inning. He’s up to .293/.344/.493 (.837 OPS) this season.

Exit velo: 108.3 mph
Launch angle: 23°
Distance: 405 ft.
Hang time: 4.8 seconds pic.twitter.com/9QQukCJBbU

— Daniel Kramer (@DKramer_) August 6, 2025

Smith has allowed all five of his home runs to lefties off of two pitches. His four-seamer, which has allowed a .301 SLG and three home runs, and his curveball, which has allowed a .548 SLG and two home runs. Below is how Canzone hits these pitches in 2025 from right-hand pitching.

Four seamer: 50 pitches, .531 wOBA, .462 ISO, 4 LA, 2 HRs

Curveball: 35 pitches, .419 wOBA, .429 ISO, 17 LA, 1 HR

I am sticking to my guns and playing the man who was developed right out of my facility in Dominic Canzone.

Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+265 DraftKings)

As I mentioned above, our last home run bet of the night will be the chalk with Raleigh. Raleigh has dominated right-handed pitching this season. He is slashing .222/.355/.528/.883 with 26 home runs against the split so far this season.

Cal Raleigh hammers his 42nd homer of the season!

It's the most homers in a single season by a switch-hitting catcher 👏 pic.twitter.com/yUTP8IvJNf

— MLB (@MLB) August 1, 2025

Raleigh is in a bit of a cold spell as of late, although his power numbers are still there, and in this article, that is all we care about. He is slashing .194/.219/.484 with a .703 OPS against the split over his last 32 plate appearances.

The reason I love Raleigh tonight is that he destroys the mix that Smith throws to left-handed hitters. The pitch that Smith allows the most power on (curveball), Raleigh is crushing.

Four seamer: 194 pitches, .284 wOBA, .235 ISO, 36 LA, 2 HRs

Curveball: 73 pitches, .561 wOBA, .700 ISO, 30 LA, 2 HRs

I am going to make a bold prediction and tell you that Raleigh is going to go deep on a curveball from Shane Smith tonight. Make sure you tag me on X @CaseyW22 when it happens.

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