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Casey Wilson's best MLB player prop bets for today (6/10/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Elly De La Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Max Kepler, and Cal Raleigh.
We have a 15-game slate for Tuesday's MLB games, as all 30 teams are in action. Today's set of games has some great hitting spots, great matchups with pitchers, home run-friendly parks, warm weather, and the wind blowing out. We will use all of this data to find our best options for hitters to leave the yard.
I will provide my four favorite home run bets on today’s slate. I do not recommend betting any more than four home runs, as it will be tough to sustain a bankroll. My favorite way to bet home runs is to round robin them, which I will do tonight. I've put a small unit size on these, but I want the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one home run hits.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Tuesday, June 10, 2025. Odds for each pick are from FanDuel or DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is volatile, so keep that in mind.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (6/10/2025)
Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Tuesday, June 10:
- Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds
- Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
- Max Kepler, Philadelphia Phillies
- Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners
Elly De La Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+430 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Elly De La Cruz will square off against Slade Cecconi and the Cleveland Guardians at Progressive Field. It will be in the 70s with a wind blowing out to right field. I prefer targeting left-handed hitters in Progressive when the wind is blowing in this direction.
De La Cruz will get an elite matchup for home runs here against Cecconi. In 2025, he has a 4.34 xFIP, 2.66 HR/9, 47.5% FB%, and a 37.7% hard-hit rate. Over his last two starts, he has a 3.86 HR/9, 53.1% FB%, and a 40.6% hard-hit rate.
Cecconi is someone we want to target with left-handed hitters. He has a .404 wOBA, .605 SLG, 2.8 HR/9, 42.9% FB%, and a 46.4% hard-hit rate in 2025 against the split. Those are elite numbers to target. His four-seamer has been the pitch most susceptible to the long ball. It has a .744 xSLG against it with three home runs allowed.
De La Cruz is the best left-handed bat in this Cincinnati Reds lineup, although Will Benson was an intriguing option, too. I'm siding with De La Cruz. He has a .393 wOBA, .242 ISO, and a 37.0% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching this season. He hits the four-seam fastball well from Cecconi, as seen below.
You can understand why I also like Benson, but De La Cruz is going yard tonight.
Brandon Lowe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+400 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Brandon Lowe is our next home run bet on this Tuesday’s slate of games. Lowe will head to Fenway Park in a matchup against Lucas Giolito and the Red Sox.
Giolito has a 4.28 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, 1.60 HR/9, 38.7% FB%, and a 35.7% hard-hit rate this season. Over his last two starts, he has allowed a lot of hard contact and fly balls. He has a 42.9% FB% and a 46.4% hard-hit rate.
I like both the lefties and righties when looking for hitters to target against Giolito. He has equal splits against both sides of the plate. He has a .359 wOBA, .500 SLG, 1.6 HR/9, 45.1% FB%, and a 28.8% hard-hit rate against lefties and a .400 wOBA, .528 SLG, 1.6 HR/9, 33.3% FB%, and a 41.7% hard-hit rate against righties.
Junior Caminero and Lowe both profile incredibly well in this spot. The primary separator is the change-up, which we will get into in the next section. Lowe has a .356 wOBA and a .222 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2025. He has a .418 wOBA, .342 ISO, and a 48.1% hard-hit rate against righties over his last 41 plate appearances.
The changeup is a pitch that has been a significant outlier for Giolito. I want to take a stand here and say Lowe hits a home run off a changeup. Giolito has given up four home runs and has a .618 xSLG against this pitch this season.
Several Rays profiles well, but the main player for me is Lowe's proven power against that pitch in 2025. I will get my exposure to Caminero in DFS.
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Max Kepler OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+460 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Max Kepler will get a great matchup with Colin Rea and the Cubs. Rea has been prone to home runs in 2025. This game will be played in Philly in warm weather, making it a good spot for home runs.
Rea has struggled with the long ball in 2025. He has a 4.29 xFIP, 1.25 HR/9, and a 39.9% FB%. Over his last two starts, he has a 5.58 xFIP, 2.45 HR/9, and a 36.6% FB%. Rea has gotten hit hard by lefties this season. He has already allowed five home runs to the split and has a .378 wOBA and a .508 SLG this season to lefties.
The Phillies have several lefties with power, but today we will click on one that is not Bryce Harper or Kyle Schwarber. Kepler has been an excellent addition for this Phillies team in 2025. He has a .300 wOBA and a .157 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.
Rea has given up four home runs this season against his four-seamer. It has a .490 xSLG against it. Kepler hits that pitch extremely well.
- Four seamer: 97 pitches, .583 wOBA, .533 ISO, 2 HR, 21 LA
I love the value in Kepler’s line here to go yard and get us on the board.
Cal Raleigh OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285 FanDuel Sportsbook)
They have ruined my boy, Cal Raleigh, with the depreciation of his home run value, but it is warranted. Raleigh leads MLB with 26 long balls this season. He is hitting everything, and tonight he gets a great matchup against Brandon Pfaadt and the Arizona Diamondbacks with the roof closed at Chase Field.
Pfaadt has struggled mightily over the last month. He has a 5.53 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, 2.41 HR/9, and a 50.0% hard-hit rate. He has a 4.33 HR/9 over his previous two starts with a 52.6% hard-hit rate. Pfaadt has gotten hit by both sides of the plate, as I can make a strong case for both handiness. He has a .356 wOBA, .485 SLG, 1.5 HR/9, 32.8% FB%, and a 40.3% hard-hit rate against lefties this season.
Pfaadt throws three pitches 75% of the time to lefties: his four-seamer, changeup, and curveball. He has allowed seven home runs of the trio of pitches this season. His four-seamer has a .732 xSLG, his changeup has a .574 xSLG, and his curveball has a .696 xSLG. His curveball, in particular, is a pitch I'm leaning into as he has allowed four home runs off it this season, which leads his arsenal, yet he only throws it 11% of the time.
Raleigh has been arguably the best hitter in baseball in 2025. He has a .419 wOBA and a .364 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2025. Over his last 19 PA, he has a .561 wOBA and a .667 ISO. Raleigh has a 58.2% FB% and a 40.0% hard-hit rate this season against the split. Almost as important, he crushes the mix of Pfaadt.
- Four seamer: 108 pitches, .409 wOBA, .409 ISO, 3 HR, 26 LA
- Changeup: 65 pitches, .356 wOBA, .143 ISO, 0 HR, 18 LA
- Curveball: 18 pitches, .555 wOBA, .750 ISO, 1 HR, 38 LA
I love what I'm seeing against the curveball, particularly this season for Raleigh. The line may not have any value to it, but Raleigh is hitting a home run tonight, so just bet it.
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