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Frank Ammirante's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/14/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props. Christian Walker, Manny Machado, James Wood, and more.
We've got a full slate of MLB action on Wednesday, giving us plenty of spots to choose from for home run player prop bets today. Today's hitters include Christian Walker, Wyatt Langford, Manny Machado, James Wood, and Andy Pages. Each player has elite power or a favorable matchup.
The strategy behind choosing home run props includes several important factors, such as batted ball metrics, lefty-righty splits, weather conditions, and park factors. We also want to ensure that we're getting a favorable price in terms of betting odds, but sometimes, we're willing to make exceptions, like with Judge, who is hitting like Barry Bonds this year.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Wednesday, May 14, 2025. Odds for each pick are from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your wagers. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is difficult.
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MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/14/2025)
Here are the hitters I'll cover for Wednesday, May 14:
- Christian Walker, Houston Astros
- Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
- Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
- James Wood, Washington Nationals
- Andy Pages, Los Angeles Dodgers
Christian Walker OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Christian Walker last 17 games:
.308 BA/.361 OBP/.508 SLG, 5 2B, 3B, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 147 wRC+#Astros #BuiltForThis pic.twitter.com/m3SlH2qzIk
— Astros Future (@AstrosFuture) May 12, 2025
Walker has been disappointing in his first season with the Astros, slashing .213/.287/.353 with four home runs and a .140 ISO in 167 plate appearances. Despite a 0-for-8 start to this series, I'm willing to give Walker a shot in this spot.
For one, the batted ball metrics reveal that Walker has deserved better results, as highlighted by a 9.7% barrel rate. It's also worth noting that the veteran slugger has performed better at home, including a 123 wRC+ compared to 37 wRC+ on the road.
We've got an exploitable matchup on tap vs. Royals' righty Michael Lorenzen. This pitcher has a 4.22 xFIP and 1.59 HR/9 in 45.1 innings this season. Lorenzen has been a bit worse vs. righties (4.56 xFIP) than lefties (3.95 xFIP), which is good news for Walker.
The Astros' first baseman has done well against right-handed pitching this season, including a 98 wRC+ (3 wRC+ vs lefties). With Lorenzen's struggles, we could see Walker go yard in this matchup.
While this is an expensive price at (+320) odds considering Walker's struggles this year, I'm willing to take a shot because he takes on a pitcher with a home run problem.
Wyatt Langford OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+320 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Wyatt Langford breaks up the no-hitter with a two-run homer! pic.twitter.com/LZiOjg98rL
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) May 13, 2025
Langford is living up to lofty expectations so far, slashing .262/.348/.484 with seven home runs and a .221 ISO in 141 plate appearances. The second-year outfielder is hitting the ball hard, including an 11.8% barrel rate, which ranks in the 67th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
We've seen Langford homer once in this series on Monday. Tonight is another opportunity for Langford to go yard in a terrific matchup against Rockies' righty Antonio Senzatela.
This pitcher has a 4.66 xFIP and 1.85 HR/9 in 39 innings this season. The numbers look even worse against right-handed hitters, as highlighted by a 3.57 HR/9 (0.42 HR/9 vs. lefties).
That's great news for Langford, who has been slightly better against righties this season, featuring a .230 ISO (.200 ISO vs lefties).
Don't be surprised to see Langford hit his second homer of the series in this exploitable matchup against Senzatela. Even at a hefty price of (+320) odds, I'm willing to take the plunge on Langford due to this favorable spot.
Manny Machado OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Manny Machado is in the midst of an 11-game hit streak, and now leads the National League with a .324 batting average. pic.twitter.com/MMKz4h97Z0
— Sammy Levitt (@SammyLev) May 12, 2025
Machado currently carries a .331/.396/.483 slash with three homers in 169 plate appearances. While the power output isn't what you'd expect from a perennial 30-homer hitter, the expected stats are encouraging with a .573 xSLG, which is much higher than his .483 slugging percentage.
The veteran third baseman has been red-hot in May, including a ridiculous 244 wRC+. There's as good a chance that Machado can keep the good times rolling in a great spot against Angels' righty Kyle Hendricks.
The former Cub has had issues with the longball this season, as highlighted by a 1.51 HR/9 in 35.2 innings. These numbers are even worse against right-handed hitters, including a 2.45 HR/9 (0.52 HR/9 vs lefties).
That's great news for Machado, who bats from the right side. It's also worth noting that there's some familiarity here, as Machado has registered a .399 xwOBA in 20 plate appearances against Hendricks throughout his career.
When you consider how well Machado is swinging the bat this month, it's hard not to like him hitting his fourth homer of the season, even at a slightly expensive price of (+360) odds.
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James Wood belts another opposite-field homer for his 11th of the season 💪 pic.twitter.com/5Zgv0aMBv7
— MLB (@MLB) May 13, 2025
Wood has been terrific for the Nationals this season, slashing .268/.368/.530 with 11 home runs in 190 plate appearances. The Nationals' slugger has been crushing the ball, as highlighted by an impressive 17.4% barrel rate, which ranks in the 94th percentile.
We've seen Wood homer already once in this series, so why not take him again in another good matchup, this time against Bryce Elder?
The Braves' righty has put up a 5.03 xFIP against lefties (3.50 xFIP vs righties) throughout his career. That's bad news against a power-hitting outfielder who hits the ball harder than most.
Given what we've seen from Wood at the plate this season, you have to love the value on taking him to hit his 12th home run. We're getting a terrific price at (+475) odds here, especially on one of the best power-hitters in MLB this year.
I should also mention that the weather is favorable for hitting tonight, as reports indicate that six MPH winds are blowing out in Atlanta tonight. Let's ride with Wood to go yard against Elder.
Andy Pages OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Andy Pages is owed a lot of apologies. He’s not going to AAA any time soon. pic.twitter.com/bhRI88wjgV
— Klein25 (@Klein25) April 27, 2025
The last home run prop on this page includes a Dodgers' hitter performing above expectations in Pages, slashing .278/.333/.458 with six home runs in 156 plate appearances.
What I love about this spot is the matchup against Athletics' right-hander Gunnar Hoglund, who has been much worse against righties this season, as highlighted by a .433 wOBA (.147 wOBA vs lefties). That's good news for Pages, who is a right-handed hitter.
Pages has been better against righties this season, including a 140 wRC+ and .198 ISO. Four of his six home runs have come off right-handed pitchers.
We're also getting favorable weather conditions at Dodger Stadium tonight, with forecasts calling for 11 MPH winds blowing out, which could help turn fly balls into home runs.
When you consider the matchup against Hoglund and windy weather, you must love the price of (+550) odds, especially on a hitter who has exceeded expectations. Let's ride with Pages to get his seventh homer of the season in this spot.
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