Rick Lucks' Bold Predictions for 2019

Our series of Bold Predictions continue with my piece. I've had success with this exercise in the past, but last year was easily my worst performance to date. That said, I am traditionally one of the boldest authors on this series, and I think you'll agree that the predictions below will at least let me […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Jackie Bradley Jr. and Juan Soto

You've probably heard people say that position scarcity is dead, as there is plenty of talent available at every offensive position save catcher and all catchers are about the same level of blech. This is true in standard 12-team leagues and some deeper formats, but it's not the case in the deepest leagues (20+ teams) […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 13 - Statcast for Pitchers

Previously, we looked at Barrels, a stat combining exit velocity and launch angle to measure how often a batter makes quality hard contact. As much as batters want to hit a Barrel every time, pitchers want to avoid them at all costs. Yet there is some evidence that pitchers do not have the same influence […]

ADP Champ or Chump - C.J. Cron and Robbie Ray

No matter how much you prepare for a draft, what you do in the heat of the moment can reveal who you like and who you don't. I recently completed two Rotoballer Challenge drafts (there's still time to sign up if you haven't yet) and decided that any player I took in both of them […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 12 - Spin Rate

Spin rate has become one of the most recognizable Statcast metrics, with supporters of a given pitcher highlighting his spin rates to make their case. Unfortunately, the baseball world has done a lousy job conveying what spin rate really means. The result has been a ton of owners who know that spin rate exists, but […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 11 - Pitch Info

One of the most fundamental questions in fantasy sports is if a player's current performance is sustainable. More than any other sport, baseball has a slew of statistical measures that can be dissected in numerous ways to analyze player performance. Pitch Info is a publicly available pitch tracking system that provides a lot of different data […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Garrett Hampson and Rougned Odor

Traditionally, fantasy talent is evenly distributed between the keystone and shortstop positions, but shortstop looks considerably stronger heading into 2019. As such, you should probably plan to draft at least two SS-eligible players to cover your SS and MI slots. That said, you still need at least one second baseman to fill out your roster. […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 10 - Pitcher Batted Ball Distribution

The league average batted ball distribution in 2018 was 21.5% liners, 43.2% grounders and 35.4% flies. We have previously seen how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.117 BABIP in 2018) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Nick Senzel and Christian Yelich

As fantasy owners, it can be easy to fall in love with a player's talent and end up overpaying for a guy. Nick Senzel's stat lines suggest that he has all of the talent necessary to make an impact at the MLB level, but the combination of his health issues and a crowded Cincinnati roster […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 9 - Pitcher BABIP

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Jesus Aguilar and David Dahl

Sometimes, it can be tough to turn away from the waiver wire guys who helped your team the previous year. Jesus Aguilar likely won some leagues with his 35-homer campaign out of nowhere last season. Likewise, David Dahl provided juice in all categories when he saw the field in 2018. Unfortunately, adding somebody for free […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 8 - FIP and xFIP

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Kyle Gibson and Miguel Sano

Fantasy owners frequently like drafting players on good teams because of the benefits of playing in a strong lineup. In 2019, the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers clearly fit into this category. We also like drafting upside plays from rebuilding clubs like the Marlins or Royals because of the opportunity they have. A […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 7 - Lineup Spot

To this point, this series has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate home runs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Nick Pivetta and Victor Robles

As a general rule, fantasy owners like to play with shiny new toys. Victor Robles has less than 100 MLB PAs to his credit but is frequently taken just outside the top-100 based on his speed. The current 21-year-old (he turns 22 in May) has talent, but this writer sees several red flags that may […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 6 - Pull Percentage

Earlier in this series, we saw that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 5 - Plate Discipline

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot tend to continue […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Kevin Kiermaier and Collin McHugh

"Sleeper" is a popular byword this time of year, but many fantasy owners don't really use it correctly. A "sleeper" is not an obscure name you call out in your auction that leaves your leaguemates scratching their heads, but any player with a good chance to provide more value than what you paid to acquire […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Danny Jansen and Ozzie Albies

With fewer data points to go off of, younger players have always been more challenging to project than their more veteran counterparts. Unfortunately, the game is getting younger. Fantasy owners need to roster at least a few young studs if they hope to compete. Danny Jansen may not have impressed in his brief MLB debut […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 4 - Batted Ball Distribution (Hitters)

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and the manner in which batters make contact. In […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Peter Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Prospecting can be an excellent way to find value on draft day and beyond, but every year a couple are hyped to the point that you need them to reach their full upside just to break even on your investment. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to be that guy in 2019, as he is currently being […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 3 - Statcast for Hitters

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Yasiel Puig and Adalberto Mondesi

Champ or Chump began the year with two positive outlooks because it's always a good idea to begin your draft prep with a dose of optimism. However, you won't win your league on draft day no matter how many players you like end up on your roster. You can lose your league on draft day […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 2 - HR/FB for Hitters

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 1 - BABIP for Hitters

Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty degrees […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Shane Bieber and Matt Chapman

The new year is upon us, which means that it's officially time to start preparing for your 2019 fantasy baseball drafts (if you haven't yet). This column will take a deep dive into two player profiles to attempt to predict how players will perform for their fantasy owners before they take the plunge. We'll start by […]

Champ or Chump: Joey Votto and Christian Yelich

When fantasy owners invest an early draft pick in a player, they generally assume that the player in question is a lock to put up excellent fantasy stats. Joey Votto has been a model of consistency throughout his career, slashing .320/.454/.578 with 36 bombs in 2017. Unfortunately, he only produced 12 HR for his owners […]

Champ or Chump: Gary Sanchez and Mookie Betts

We continue our 2019 fantasy baseball preview with two names who could not have had more different seasons in 2018. Gary Sanchez entered last draft season as the consensus top catcher on the board. Unfortunately for his owners, he's been struggling with the Mendoza line all season. Meanwhile, Mookie Betts has gone nuts for the […]

Champ or Chump: Blake Snell and Javy Baez

The Tampa Bay Rays would be leading three of baseball's six divisions with their current record, success largely the result of the successful "opener" strategy and Blake Snell's breakout campaign. It'll probably take fantasy owners all winter to figure out how to use openers to our advantage, but Snell's skills should be easy enough to […]

Champ or Chump: Trevor Story and Ronald Acuna Jr.

We begin our ridiculously early look at the 2019 fantasy baseball landscape with two of the bigger breakouts of the 2018 season. Trevor Story has gone from a barely top-100 asset to a potential MVP candidate, returning tremendous value to anyone who drafted him in March. Ronald Acuna Jr. should probably win the National League's […]