Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 10 - Pitcher Batted Ball Distribution

The league average batted ball distribution in 2018 was 21.5% liners, 43.2% grounders and 35.4% flies. We have previously seen how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.117 BABIP in 2018) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Nick Senzel and Christian Yelich

As fantasy owners, it can be easy to fall in love with a player's talent and end up overpaying for a guy. Nick Senzel's stat lines suggest that he has all of the talent necessary to make an impact at the MLB level, but the combination of his health issues and a crowded Cincinnati roster […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 9 - Pitcher BABIP

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Jesus Aguilar and David Dahl

Sometimes, it can be tough to turn away from the waiver wire guys who helped your team the previous year. Jesus Aguilar likely won some leagues with his 35-homer campaign out of nowhere last season. Likewise, David Dahl provided juice in all categories when he saw the field in 2018. Unfortunately, adding somebody for free […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 8 - FIP and xFIP

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Kyle Gibson and Miguel Sano

Fantasy owners frequently like drafting players on good teams because of the benefits of playing in a strong lineup. In 2019, the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, and Dodgers clearly fit into this category. We also like drafting upside plays from rebuilding clubs like the Marlins or Royals because of the opportunity they have. A […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 7 - Lineup Spot

To this point, this series has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate home runs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats and are unhelpful in […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Nick Pivetta and Victor Robles

As a general rule, fantasy owners like to play with shiny new toys. Victor Robles has less than 100 MLB PAs to his credit but is frequently taken just outside the top-100 based on his speed. The current 21-year-old (he turns 22 in May) has talent, but this writer sees several red flags that may […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 6 - Pull Percentage

Earlier in this series, we saw that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. One way […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 5 - Plate Discipline

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot tend to continue […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Kevin Kiermaier and Collin McHugh

"Sleeper" is a popular byword this time of year, but many fantasy owners don't really use it correctly. A "sleeper" is not an obscure name you call out in your auction that leaves your leaguemates scratching their heads, but any player with a good chance to provide more value than what you paid to acquire […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Danny Jansen and Ozzie Albies

With fewer data points to go off of, younger players have always been more challenging to project than their more veteran counterparts. Unfortunately, the game is getting younger. Fantasy owners need to roster at least a few young studs if they hope to compete. Danny Jansen may not have impressed in his brief MLB debut […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 4 - Batted Ball Distribution (Hitters)

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and the manner in which batters make contact. In […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Peter Alonso and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Prospecting can be an excellent way to find value on draft day and beyond, but every year a couple are hyped to the point that you need them to reach their full upside just to break even on your investment. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. seems to be that guy in 2019, as he is currently being […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 3 - Statcast for Hitters

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Yasiel Puig and Adalberto Mondesi

Champ or Chump began the year with two positive outlooks because it's always a good idea to begin your draft prep with a dose of optimism. However, you won't win your league on draft day no matter how many players you like end up on your roster. You can lose your league on draft day […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 2 - HR/FB for Hitters

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 1 - BABIP for Hitters

Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty degrees […]

ADP Champ or Chump - Shane Bieber and Matt Chapman

The new year is upon us, which means that it's officially time to start preparing for your 2019 fantasy baseball drafts (if you haven't yet). This column will take a deep dive into two player profiles to attempt to predict how players will perform for their fantasy owners before they take the plunge. We'll start by […]

Champ or Chump: Joey Votto and Christian Yelich

When fantasy owners invest an early draft pick in a player, they generally assume that the player in question is a lock to put up excellent fantasy stats. Joey Votto has been a model of consistency throughout his career, slashing .320/.454/.578 with 36 bombs in 2017. Unfortunately, he only produced 12 HR for his owners […]

Champ or Chump: Gary Sanchez and Mookie Betts

We continue our 2019 fantasy baseball preview with two names who could not have had more different seasons in 2018. Gary Sanchez entered last draft season as the consensus top catcher on the board. Unfortunately for his owners, he's been struggling with the Mendoza line all season. Meanwhile, Mookie Betts has gone nuts for the […]

Champ or Chump: Blake Snell and Javy Baez

The Tampa Bay Rays would be leading three of baseball's six divisions with their current record, success largely the result of the successful "opener" strategy and Blake Snell's breakout campaign. It'll probably take fantasy owners all winter to figure out how to use openers to our advantage, but Snell's skills should be easy enough to […]

Champ or Chump: Trevor Story and Ronald Acuna Jr.

We begin our ridiculously early look at the 2019 fantasy baseball landscape with two of the bigger breakouts of the 2018 season. Trevor Story has gone from a barely top-100 asset to a potential MVP candidate, returning tremendous value to anyone who drafted him in March. Ronald Acuna Jr. should probably win the National League's […]

Champ or Chump: Ramon Laureano and Austin Gomber

This will be the last column of the year that pays any attention to 2018 forecasts. With H2H playoffs winding down and roto leagues all but locked up, there just isn't that much that statistical analysis can do over a sample size of two weeks. We'll keep at it though by examining some of the […]

Champ or Chump: Rowdy Tellez and Jeff McNeil

Recently, some unheralded minor leaguers have been making noise at the MLB level. Toronto's Rowdy Tellez is a 23-year old first baseman with an 80-grade name and more extra base hits over his first 15 PAs than anybody in baseball history. His MiLB resume suggests some power and an advanced feel for the strike zone, […]

Champ or Chump: Amed Rosario and Nomar Mazara

We are in the final stretch now, and the sad truth is that the fates of most fantasy teams have already been sealed. The players below are available in at least 30 percent of leagues, but our focus will begin to shift toward 2019 draft prep. With so much data available on so many players, […]

Champ or Chump: Josh Donaldson and Andrew McCutchen

The August waiver deadline has come and gone, leaving several brand name players with new home addresses. Gio Gonzalez joins Milwaukee's rotation even though the team already had plenty of bad pitchers. He's a total random number generator who might ruin your team's WHIP by walking six in three innings or your ERA by allowing […]

Champ or Chump: Harrison Bader and Luis Urias

Last time, we looked at a couple of widely available waiver wire options who could help owners get the steals or homers they need to move up in the standings. It's also possible that you need to improve your batting average (or OBP), but rate stats can be more difficult to make a dent in […]

Champ or Chump: Greg Allen and Kendrys Morales

By this point in the season, some roto leagues have effectively been decided. Most of the field is almost certainly thinking about next year, but it's possible that a few teams are still competing for a money spot. If there is still a battle going on, it almost certainly boils down to one or two […]

Champ or Chump: Nick Williams and Tyler Glasnow

We're taking a closer look at two names who would be nearly universally owned if they put up their current numbers earlier in the MLB season. The 24-year-old Nick Williams has looked like a hitter for Philadelphia, slashing .264/.332/.454 with 17 long balls in 383 PAs on the season. His peripherals don't quite support that […]