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John's dark-horse candidates to finish as the overall fantasy football QB1 in 2025. Target these fantasy football QB sleepers with sneaky league-winning upside.
Obviously, guys like Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, and Jayden Daniels have shown us what they can do in the NFL -- put up huge numbers both as passers and rushers. They're on the short list of quarterbacks who could reasonably finish as the overall QB1 this season.
But everyone knows that, so all three of those players are commonly drafted in the first three to four rounds in fantasy football redraft leagues. If you're able to find huge value in the later rounds -- namely, other QBs who could finish highly and even challenge for overall QB1 status -- you could potentially win leagues with that information.
It's more likely that Allen or Jackson, in particular, will win that title. Still, though, even if you draft a QB in the late rounds, and he finishes top-5 at his position, you'll be counting that as a win. So, let's break down five quarterbacks who could finish at the top of the fantasy football QB mountain this season!
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Drake Maye, New England Patriots
There are three major reasons why Maye could (and probably will) have a breakout campaign in his sophomore season in the NFL. The first is that his receiving corps last season was easily the worst in the NFL. Kayshon Boutte looking like your team's No. 1 receiver is a horrible situation to be in for a quarterback, especially as a rookie.
Maye tried his best to develop chemistry with his WRs and TEs, to almost no avail. This was despite Maye being pretty accurate overall. The aforementioned Boutte, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Austin Hooper, and Hunter Henry all failed to distinguish themselves as being deserving of a big target share.
Drake Maye delivered a 60% catchable ball rate on throws vs. pressure in 2024.
QB13 out of 42 qualifiers
(Source: @FantasyPtsData) https://t.co/bHhwb7k2H3 pic.twitter.com/9vVxSy8bBY
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) June 10, 2025
Maye proved last season that he was pretty good under pressure. As the above chart shows, he ranked 13th of 42 qualifying quarterbacks in the percentage of his passes deemed catchable while under pressure. He ranked sixth in completion percentage over expected, had the fourth-lowest off-target rate, and when a receiver was open, he excelled.
It's a huge bonus that the Patriots signed wide receiver Stefon Diggs and drafted WR Kyle Williams and running back TreVeyon Henderson. Diggs and Williams, according to my analysis, will be the team's top two receivers and will present a massive upgrade in separation abilities and overall skill from what Maye had to deal with last season.
I've thought this for a while, but it's becoming more clear now. Kyle Williams should be the starting X receiver for the Patriots. Put Diggs, recovering from an ACL tear, in the slot. Massive, league winning upside for Williams. Draft him! https://t.co/ToVKBKkc1e
— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) August 18, 2025
I'm especially excited about Williams, in particular. I've noted his fantastic separation abilities in several previous articles and posts on X. They've translated well. While I'm not one to get overly excited about a few preseason reps, Williams has been leaving defensive backs in the dust.
The most important thing a receiver can do in football is separate. Catching the ball is important, but WRs who can't separate well rarely last long in the league. Quarterbacks need to be able to target their pass-catchers without putting the ball in harm's way.
Even if a WR has strong hands and can win battles for contested catch opportunities, the chances of those plays resulting in incompletions, dangerous deflections, or interceptions are generally higher than on plays where a WR gets clear separation from the coverage, naturally.
Drake Maye running the football pic.twitter.com/vfbT6VD7lZ
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 16, 2025
Maye's rushing ability is also unquestionably good. Despite having virtually zero schemed rush plays last season, Maye still managed to put up respectable overall rushing numbers, gaining 421 yards and scoring two rushing touchdowns on just 54 carries.
His 7.8 yards per carry led all players in the NFL who had 50 or more rushes on the season, with Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray in second, having gained 7.3 yards per rush on 78 rushes. That's a lofty number, but clearly, the talent is there for much more overall production.
This is Drake Maye’s starting center against a 5th round rookie btw pic.twitter.com/K03IivWxiv
— Football Analysis (@FBallAnalysisYT) August 16, 2025
The biggest issue with Maye's battle to become the overall QB1 is his offensive line. It was easily, and by far, the worst line in the league last year. It's easy to get misled by wish-casting, and there's plenty of hope that the Patriots offensive line will magically get things together and become a good unit, but I doubt it happens overnight.
That's where his rushing ability comes into play, of course. He could be forced to scramble even more this season than last if things don't go well in the trenches, and that might even add to his fantasy value, especially if he runs near the goal line and picks up a bunch of rush TDs.
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy is in a much better situation than Maye. The Vikings offense is one of the league's best. Head coach Kevin O'Connell is a fantastic play-caller and scheme-maker. The offensive line played very well last season. And the trio of pass-catchers of wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson form arguably the best group of three pass-catchers on one team in the entire NFL.
Despite Hockenson being injured for much of last season, quarterback Sam Darnold appeared to many to be a completely different player in this offense. After being nothing but terrible in every one of his seasons in the league until joining the Vikings, Darnold easily smashed his career-best numbers in Minnesota.
2024 Minnesota Vikings - Explosive Pass Concepts🧵🧨🧨🧨
- Cross (PA & Non PA) / 10.2 Yards Per Play
- Wave (PA & Non PA) / 11.2 Yards Per Play
- PA Dagger / 12.1 Yards Per Play
- Mini Dagger (+ Man Beater Opposite) / 10.3 Yards Per Play
- Bang Stutter Rail / 11.4 Yards Per Play… pic.twitter.com/DTaMcMLF4T— James Light (@JamesALight) April 20, 2025
The Vikings passing offense should continue to be one of the league's best. The transformative effect of having both one of the best wide receivers to ever play the game and an undeniably elite tight end, now fully healthy and far removed from his ACL tear, can't be understated.
McCarthy's elite environment will certainly support him in the passing game, but it's his legs that have me especially excited. His rushing numbers in college aren't impressive, but he was on a team that had so much success in the run game that he was barely asked to take off with the ball.
Blake Corum: really fast
JJ McCarthy: also really fast pic.twitter.com/MktKyfGilF
— Sidelines - Michigan 〽️ (@SSN_Michigan) January 19, 2022
McCarthy has elite speed for a quarterback. We don't have him running a 40-yard dash on record, but the above is a video of him dusting running back Blake Corum, who ran a 4.54-second 40-yard dash. I estimate McCarthy to have a 4.4 speed.
That's incredible for a quarterback. McCarthy is an incredible athlete. Teams pull out all the stops to try to win games, and as McCarthy is a bit raw as a passer, I expect him to be forced to rely on his legs. I'm not sure he'll have a ton of designed runs, but it's the potential and upside that we draft for. I love McCarthy in all leagues this year.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
A lot would need to go right for Lawrence to finish as the overall QB1. He, like Maye, doesn't have a great offensive line, though it's better than worst in the league. What Lawrence does now have is Liam Coen, an elite offensive mind, running the show, and a shiny new weapon at wide receiver.
He's also big enough to be used at the goal line, and that would probably need to happen for him to finish top-5 overall. But keep in mind that he now has a No. 2 overall pick in WR/CB Travis Hunter and elite WR Brian Thomas Jr. to throw to.
Coen's transformative effect on the passing offense of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last season was evident. Their starting quarterback, Baker Mayfield, threw 13 more touchdowns in 2024 than he had in any previous season. Even when both their top receivers, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, didn't play due to injury, the passing offense still functioned well.
The Jalen McMillan biggest gains of the year are a great highlight package for Liam Coen. pic.twitter.com/T3W77nUI4m
— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 19, 2025
There are some offensive coaches, like Coen and Green Bay Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, who consistently scheme their receivers wide open, no matter the personnel, coverages, or defenses they face. It's remarkable. Lawrence should be pleased at the coaching change because that's not how things were in any previous season.
Of course, T-Law is a longer shot than some of the guys on this list with more rushing upside, like McCarthy. His passing numbers would have to be incredible, and he'd have to vulture quite a few rushing touchdowns to get there. But at the very least, the Jaguars QB1 should outperform his ADP handily.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Speaking of the Packers, if Love is fully healthy, he could put up monster passing numbers this season. He has mediocre rushing upside, but it's mostly the genius of LaFleur that I'm excited about here. Love isn't a hyper-accurate quarterback, but it doesn't matter.
The Packers passing offense features every WR on the roster getting wide open down the field multiple times per game, except against the stiffest of defenses. Love didn't pass nearly as much last season because he was injured most of the year. If he can avoid more ailments, he should be a great pick at ADP.
Living On The Deep Ball!
Most Passing Yards on Balls Thrown 20+ Yards In The Air (2024)
1. Sam Darnold (1,183)
2. Jordan Love (1,053)
3. Justin Herbert (939)
4. Bo Nix (909)
5. Lamar Jackson (876)
6. Geno Smith (827)
…
26. Patrick Mahomes (462) 🤔 pic.twitter.com/T8I2vNnpDw— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) July 8, 2025
Of particular note is the Packers offense being one of the best deep passing offenses in the league. If you're in a six-point passing touchdown league that rewards big plays, Love has even more upside.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos
Nix, in his rookie season, rushed for 430 yards and four touchdowns, adding 3,775 passing yards and 29 passing scores. It's reasonable to expect that the team's group of mostly young receivers could develop well, free-agent acquisition tight end Evan Engram could continue to be productive, and that rookie running back RJ Harvey could help the passing game with his elusiveness after the catch.
Behind one of the best offensive lines in the league, Nix could level up his production in Year 2. Quarterbacks generally don't look great in their first season, so it was a surprise when Nix finished as the QB7 overall, racking up over 329 fantasy points in 17 contests.
2+ minutes of Bo Nix's arm beating defenders to windows, working closing MOF windows, working far hash concepts and launching throws downfield. pic.twitter.com/Hgu5BgEATw
— Robby (@Robby_NFL) January 10, 2025
Nix showed plenty of poise. With the upgraded pass-catching corps he now has, which also features rookie wideout Pat Bryant to play opposite of WR1 Courtland Sutton, we could see even more production from Nix this season with elite offensive-minded head coach Sean Payton running the show.
Jalen Milroe*, QB, Seattle Seahawks
The asterisk above is there because this will only happen IF the Seahawks decide to outright bench their starting quarterback, Sam Darnold. It's also possible that any player goes down with a season-ending injury. If that happens, and Milroe gets the start, this conversation becomes valid.
And also obviously, Milroe would only be in consideration for finishing as the QB1 overall in fantasy points per game rather than overall for the season in this scenario because it would be incredibly unlikely to score such an astoundingly high number of points that he makes up for all the time he missed.
With that out of the way, the upside argument for Milroe is that he's a running back playing the quarterback position. He's like a juiced-up Justin Fields in that he's both faster, yet is raw as a passer. Milroe has a nice deep ball. The rest ... is pretty shaky.
Welcome to the NFL, Jalen Milroe pic.twitter.com/5djG4Iv7P9
— SleeperSeahawks (@SleeperSeahawks) August 8, 2025
One of the easiest things to evaluate about NFL players for fantasy football, in my opinion, is rushing upside. Milroe is a ridiculously talented athlete. Had he run a 40-yard dash at the 2025 NFL Combine, I believe he'd have run a time in the mid-to-low 4.4s, which immediately makes him one of the fastest quarterbacks in the league.
Additionally, there's evidence all over his tape of him running with the vision, anticipation, and poise of a legitimate running back prospect. He makes cuts and changes direction well in advance of the defenders downfield to set up his blockers better, and is quite elusive.
NOT ONE, NOT TWO, NOT THREE BUT FOUR RUSHING TDS FOR JALEN MILROE 😱
ABSOLUTELY TERRORIZING THE LSU DEFENSE 😳 pic.twitter.com/XuXOsCkLLC
— ESPN (@espn) November 10, 2024
Quarterbacks don't need the speed to run away from defensive backs to pick up dozens of explosive gains per season on the ground. Defenses simply can't account for the threat of the rush without leaving more holes in zones for quarterbacks to throw to. And in pure man coverage, forget about it.
Milroe might be the league's most talented and athletic rusher right now. My analysis indicates that only Jackson can hold a candle to it, and Jackson only rushed for four touchdowns last season. Milroe could beat that number easily if his offensive line holds up and puts up huge totals on the ground.
