RADIO
When fantasy owners invest an early draft pick in a player, they generally assume that the player in question is a lock to put up excellent fantasy stats. Joey Votto has been a model of consistency throughout his career, slashing .320/.454/.578 with 36 bombs in 2017. Unfortunately, he only produced 12 HR for his owners this year. What happened?
Christian Yelich seems likely to garner early-round attention next year, as he finally added elite power totals (33 HR) to complement his all-around game. His peripherals suggest that he is the same Yelich he has always been, however, which means that next season's HR totals won't approach this year's.
Let's take a closer look at both of the superstars above.
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Joey Votto (1B, CIN) - 96% Owned
Votto hasn't been the player his owners expected at all, slashing just .285/.418/.422 to accompany the power outage above. His plate discipline is as good as ever, as he has more walks (17.3% BB%) than strikeouts (16.3% K%). This has helped Votto deliver in OBP formats even without the pop generally expected of a first baseman.
Amazingly, Votto's .334 BABIP is on the low side relative to his career mark of .352. There's no easy explanation for this, as his LD% is up (30.9% vs. 25.7%), FB% down (30.9% vs. 33.3% career), and IFFB% literally nonexistent (0%). In a vacuum, all three of these things would be expected to have a positive effect on BABIP.
However, Votto's batted balls aren't producing what they have historically. For instance, his grounders have produced a BABIP of .212 against a career mark of .231. He's slow as molasses (25.4 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed this year), but that's nothing new (24.9 ft./sec last year). His exit velocity on grounders isn't great (81.4mph), but it wasn't last season either (80.4mph). Votto doesn't pull nearly enough ground balls to care about the shift (57% this year), so there's no easy answer to explain the discrepancy.
Likewise, Votto's fly balls (.145 vs. .196 career) and line drives (.656 vs. .712) are not finding grass as often as they usually do. His average airborne exit velocity is virtually identical to last season (92.5mph vs. 92.6), so that's not it. His rate of Brls/BBE has trended downward each season since 2015 (10.9% to 9.7% to 9.1% to 6.6% this season), but a slightly higher Pull% on fly balls (16.4% vs. 13.6% career) should mitigate the impact somewhat. The best conclusion is that Votto's BABIP will increase next year, but not all the way to his career norms.
Of course, a .285 average is perfectly acceptable if it comes with some pop. Votto's contact quality is comparable to last year's and he plays in a friendly home park, so why is his 9.8% HR/FB roughly half of his career mark (18.4%)? Baseball Savant's xStats say that Votto has deserved both a higher batting average (.303 xBA) and slugging percentage (.523 xSLG), so bad luck may be behind his struggles.
At age 35, it's doubtful that fantasy owners will be eager to draft Votto in 5X5 next season. If he can rebound to even 20 HR though, his elite batting average and prime spot in a sneaky offense could make him a value. Don't be afraid to take a discount if one is available.
Verdict: Champ
Christian Yelich (OF, MIL) - 99% Owned
Milwaukee's offseason has proven to be the best in MLB this year, as free agent acquisition, Lorenzo Cain paces the NL in fWAR while Yelich is earning MVP consideration with a .321/.390/.583 line, 33 HR, and 21 SB (four CS). As a result, the team is in a great Wild Card position and could catch the Cubs for the division crown.
Yelich is a great baseball player and a strong fantasy asset, but his 2018 power production is unlikely to be sustainable moving forward. The knock on Yelich has always been that he doesn't hit enough fly balls, and nothing has changed this season (23.1% FB%, 20% career). Instead, his HR/FB has soared to 33% (19.8% career). Giancarlo Stanton, Khris Davis, and Joey Gallo can't sustain HR/FB rates that high. Nobody thinks Yelich has as much raw power as those guys.
Some level of HR/FB regression is likely, but how much? Yelich's contact quality has improved this season, as both his 97mph average airborne exit velocity (20th in MLB) and 12.4% rate of Brls/BBE (30th) represent career bests. He's also pulling more of his flies (16%) than he has over his career (12%). Finally, Yelich has a favorable ballpark for the first time in his career, as Milwaukee had a HR factor of 111 (tied for second) for left-handed bats in 2017. The Marlins ranked second to last with a factor of 89.
Nineteen of Yelich's 33 long balls have come at home this year, which is more big flies at home than he hit in his entire Marlins career (18). The improvements in his hitting environment and contact quality should enable Yeich to best his career HR/FB again next season, but it'll be closer to 25% than 33%. That's still really high, and fantasy owners will fantasize about what might happen if Yelich ever tried to hit more flies. Again.
The rest of Yelich's profile looks stable. His minimal FB% and above average wheels (28.6 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed) allow him to consistently post a high BABIP (.368 this year, .358 career). His 25% LD% probably won't repeat (22.3% career), but his grounders (.263 vs. .272 career) and flies (.130 vs. .217) should regress in the other direction. xStats say that Yelich deserved a .313 average based on his contact quality and 20.6% K%, and that seems like a reasonable projection.
Yelich's 84% success rate as a base thief should earn him more SB opportunities moving forward, and his 2018 season is likely to lock him into a favorable lineup slot for the foreseeable future. Feel free to pay for 2018's numbers minus 5-10 HR next year. Whether he'll be available at that price is another story.
Verdict: Champ
