Champ or Chump - J.T. Realmuto and Andrew Benintendi

Some fantasy owners prioritize upside over everything else in their draft. Upside wins leagues! Upside makes your team more exciting to follow! Upside encourages you to draft Byron Buxton and hold onto him until his lack of production has doomed you to the second division of your league! Upside doesn't win leagues, profit potential does. […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 11 - Batted Ball Distribution For Pitchers

The league average batted ball distribution in 2017 was 20.3% liners, 44.2% grounders and 35.5% flies. We have previously seen how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.130 BABIP in 2017) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm […]

Champ or Chump - Garrett Richards and Xander Bogaerts

Sometimes, you look at fantasy baseball ADP data and ask yourself, "why?" A deeper dive might reveal that your opinion on a given player has become outdated, or maybe you can see an argument that fails to convince you but might move the needle for somebody else. In either case, the price is justifiable. However, […]

Champ or Chump - Kevin Kiermaier and Alex Bregman

Our friends at FantasyPros have added ESPN and CBS to their composite ADP rankings, drawing from a total of six sources (those two plus Yahoo!, Fantrax, NFBC, and RT Sports). The vast majority of you probably use at least one of those services, making the compiled ADP data a fairly reliable predictor of what might […]

Champ or Chump - C.J. Cron and Carlos Gomez

As promised, it's time to take a closer look at the players Tampa Bay brought in to replace those that the team shipped out of town. C.J. Cron has been buried behind uninspiring fantasy options such as Albert Pujols in recent years, but his underlying power metrics suggest a 30-HR campaign if given regular PAs. […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 10 - Ballpark Factors

If you have ever selected a streamable pitcher based on home park or benched an otherwise must-start arm at Coors Field, you already know how much a stadium can impact a player's bottom line. Ballpark Factors quantify the influence each stadium has, allowing you to make the most of your fantasy team's real life schedule. […]

Champ or Chump - Corey Dickerson and Steven Souza Jr.

Traditionally, the Tampa Bay Rays operate in relative obscurity. That has changed this offseason, as trading away Evan Longoria, Jake Odorizzi, Corey Dickerson, and Steven Souza Jr. has led to allegations of "tanking" comparable to the Miami Marlins. The news that Brent Honeywell may require Tommy John surgery certainly doesn't help either. Despite appearances, the […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 9 - BABIP For Pitchers

While FIP is a useful tool to predict a pitcher's future ERA performance, fantasy owners should remember that ERA, not FIP, is what really matters in most formats. This means that we are interested in the "luck" that separates the two statistics. While some of this luck is unpredictable, we can and should predict some […]

Champ or Chump - Jarrod Dyson and J.D. Martinez

Major League GMs are making up for lost time, as the moves have been fast and furious over the past few days. The Arizona Diamondbacks completely remodeled their outfield by signing free agent Jarrod Dyson and trading for Steven Souza Jr. Dyson is discussed below, and Souza's fantasy prospects will be considered in a future […]

Champ or Chump - Jake Odorizzi and Eric Hosmer

It took the better part of four months, but baseball's offseason is finally starting! Eric Hosmer signed a massive contract to vacation play baseball in San Diego, while Jake Odorizzi was traded to the Minnesota Twins for a ham sandwich and a few extra baseballs. One of these players is capable of turning a substantial […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 8 - FIP and xFIP

The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching, and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory that the metric is based upon, pitchers control only Ks, BBs (and HBP) and home […]

Champ or Chump - Adrian Beltre and Yu Darvish

One great way to identify sleepers and busts is to take advantage of any biases that may impact the community's perception of a player. For example, older players are frequently bargains on draft day because owners assume that they're going to collapse. Adrian Beltre of the Texas Rangers seems to fit into this category so […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 7 - Lineup Slot

To this point, this series has focused exclusively on trying to predict and validate home runs and batting average. There is a reason for this--modern sabermetrics tend to reject the idea of a "clutch RBI guy" and therefore do not bother inventing predictive metrics for it. Runs and RBI are team-dependent stats, and are unhelpful […]

Champ or Chump - Ian Desmond and Jonathan Villar

Early draft data from RTSports drafts has been added to FantasyPros, making the latter's composite ADP data a little more reliable. Your host site's ADP data is worth looking into, especially if any absentee owners are auto-selecting based on the site's default rankings. However, FantasyPros' composite ADP is the best way to feel an unbiased […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 6 - Pull%

Earlier in this series, we saw that fantasy owners generally prefer batters to hit the ball into the air in order to have a chance at a home run. Yet, all fly balls are not equal for this purpose. A player can maximize his power production by pulling the ball in the air. Today we'll […]

Champ or Chump - Willie Calhoun and Ronald Acuna

Our friends at FantasyPros have started offering composite Average Draft Position (ADP) data from the earliest 2018 drafts. Currently, data is only available from FanTrax and NFBC, but other popular platforms such as Yahoo!, RTSports, and CBS will be added as it becomes available. ADP is influenced by the host site's default rankings, so composite […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 5 - Plate Discipline

No matter how high a particular player's BABIP may be, his average will be mediocre at best if he strikes out too much. This is why fantasy owners have known for years that players like Adam Dunn and Chris Davis are potential drains on a fantasy team's batting average. Furthermore, players that whiff a lot […]

Champ or Chump - Brandon Moss and Todd Frazier

The theme of this article is cheap power. As more players than ever before start cracking 20 homers, fantasy owners can rely on legitimate power bats remaining available in the latter stages of their draft. Some owners believe that this allows them to wait on power, but the league-wide increase in home runs has also […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 4 - Batted Ball Distribution

Fly balls can turn into home runs. Ground balls never do. It would seem as though fantasy owners want their batters to hit nothing but flies, yet this is not the case. Why would this be? The answer, of course, comes down to batted ball distribution and the manner in which batters make contact. In […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 3 - Statcast for Batters

If you've watched a baseball broadcast in the so-called Statcast Era, you have undoubtedly noticed the broadcasters commenting on a batted ball's exit velocity, or EV. Many have taken to using stats like Hard% and Soft% to forecast how a player should be performing, expecting larger Hard% rates to produce larger BABIP and HR/FB figures. […]

Champ or Chump - Alcides Escobar and Alex Avila

Fantasy owners hope that every selection they make turns into a stud, but this isn't that realistic. In more practical terms, you want as many strong performers as possible while avoiding roster slots with zero (or less) value. Some positions are easier to find "non-zero" production in than others, giving birth to the concept of […]

Champ or Chump - Jesse Hahn and Lewis Brinson

The Kansas City Royals and Oakland A's recently completed a trade that boils down to intriguing arm (Jesse Hahn) for slugging first baseman (Brandon Moss) for our purposes. Hahn is discussed below, while Moss will receive a closer look in a future column. Speaking of trades, much has been made of Miami's inability to get […]

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 2 - HR/FB for Hitters

Using BABIP to predict a player's batting average is great. Average is a category in many league formats, and every hit is an opportunity to steal a base or score a run. But most owners find the long ball sexier. Every HR comes with a guaranteed run scored and at least one RBI. Many owners […]

Using Sabermetrics For Fantasy Baseball Part 1 - BABIP for Hitters

Hello fellow RotoBallers! Sabermetrics have become an integral tool for fantasy baseball draft prep, but a concise resource for understanding the basics can be difficult to find. This series attempts to define and explain all of the metrics fantasy owners may find useful, citing examples of how to use them in the process. Twenty degrees […]

Champ or Chump - Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich

Milwaukee's outfield has improved significantly with the additions of Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, but it muddies the waters a little from a fantasy perspective. Domingo Santana should beat out Ryan Braun for the last OF slot, but Eric Thames also offers owners more upside at first base. One report suggests that Braun might play […]

Champ or Chump - Felipe Rivero and Colin Moran

The Milwaukee Brewers bought all of the available outfielders, so let's continue to discuss the Gerrit Cole deal. This column previously concluded that Cole may disappoint owners in Houston, while Joe Musgrove has considerable upside. Both of the articles linked above noted that Pittsburgh's infield defense is superior to Houston's, thanks in part to the […]

Champ or Chump - Joe Musgrove and Randal Grichuk

Baseball's offseason continues to trickle in moves as opposed to flooding us with them, but the latest batch seem interesting from a fantasy perspective. Joe Musgrove's 4.77 ERA last year may be a big reason prognosticators don't love Pittsburgh's side of the Gerrit Cole trade, but he may have the talent to replace Cole himself. […]

Champ or Chump - Curtis Granderson and Andrew McCutchen

Five-tool players are among the most sought after commodities in all of fantasy baseball. This is a great thing if they are performing the way you expected them to, but most owners give ex-five tool guys a much longer leash than anyone else on their roster. They end up dropping points in the standings as […]

Champ or Chump - Brad Hand and Gerrit Cole

Pitching is the name of the game in both real life and fantasy baseball. Rostering the wrong arms can put any team into a hole it's difficult to dig out from under, but overpaying for the right ones can leave your team exposed on the offensive side. What's a fantasy owner to do? The best […]

Champ or Chump - Freddy Galvis and Jay Bruce

Baseball's hot stove is finally starting to heat up a bit, with names like Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole headed to new addresses in 2018. It's late in coming, but now is the time some fantasy owners begin overlooking the smaller moves to concentrate on the biggest names. Don't make that mistake. This doesn't mean that […]