X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump - Nick Pivetta and Victor Robles

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy baseball viability of SP Nick Pivetta and OF Victor Robles for redraft leagues in 2019. Are they potential sleepers or draft day busts based on ADP?

As a general rule, fantasy owners like to play with shiny new toys. Victor Robles has less than 100 MLB PAs to his credit but is frequently taken just outside the top-100 based on his speed. The current 21-year-old (he turns 22 in May) has talent, but this writer sees several red flags that may limit his value in redraft leagues.

In contrast, fantasy owners tend to abandon shiny new toys as soon as they break. When yesterday's exciting prospect debuts provide mediocre (or worse) results, you can often buy a talented player at a discount. Nick Pivetta illustrates this concept nicely at an ADP of 156.08 this season.

Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their current ADP. For example, a pitcher we view as "Tier 2" can be a Champ if they're being drafted as a Tier-3 pitcher, or they could be a Chump if they're being drafted as a Tier-1 pitcher. Let's take a closer look at Pivetta and Robles, shall we?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Nick Pivetta (SP, PHI) - ADP: 156.08

Pivetta's 4.77 ERA over 164 IP doesn't look great, but his underlying 3.42 xFIP suggests that he actually pitched much better than that. Pivetta's 2017 season went much the same way, as a 6.02 ERA over 133 IP masked a solid 4.26 xFIP. Pivetta improved in most of the areas that matter last season, and he seems primed for a breakout at age 26.

Pivetta's stuff has always been pretty good. In 2017, he struck out 24% of the batters who faced him while walking 9.8%. Both metrics improved last year, with his K% increasing to 27.1% and his BB% decreasing to 7.4%. When a pitcher's K-BB% nears 20%, it's time for fantasy owners to pay attention.

Pivetta features three primary pitches and three more show-me pitches to give hitters a different look. His fastball is elite, averaging 95.4 mph and generating whiffs at a strong 10.1% rate despite an incredibly high Zone% (58%). It's not outstanding by spin rate (2,267 RPM), but hitters clearly have a hard time tracking it.

Once the fastball gets him ahead, Pivetta has two breaking pitches to put hitters away. The first is a curve with a strong 15.4% SwStr% and 41.5% chase rate, making it a great put-away pitch. Pivetta can also drop it in for a strike when he wants to (43.7% Zone%) and rely on its insane spin rate (2,837 RPM, 27th among all MLB pitchers last year) to limit a hitter's productivity.

Alternatively, Pivetta can deliver a slider that generates more whiffs than his curve (16.2% SwStr%) at the cost of lower Zone% (39.8%) and chase rates (35.5%). The rest of Pivetta's arsenal consists of a sinker, change, and cutter. None of them look special in admittedly small samples, but together they add up to 10% of Pivetta's total pitches thrown. That's enough to keep hitters guessing.

The "luck metrics" were not in Pivetta's corner in 2018, as he allowed a 15.8% HR/FB, .326 BABIP, and 69% strand rate. If his arsenal is so strong, why has contact gone so poorly for him? It's not the quality of contact against him, as Baseball Savant projected an xBA of .221 and xSLG of .370 based on the launch angle and exit velocity of his batted balls allowed. For reference, his actual marks were .261 and .423, respectively.

No, the reason behind Pivetta's struggles was the complete lack of defense behind him. Per Statcast's Outs Above Average metric, Rhys Hoskins was worth -20 outs at an outfielder in 2018. That is unfathomably bad, but thankfully the Carlos Santana trade allows the team to move him back to first base. He's still below average there (-2 Defensive Runs Saved in limited time last season), but at least he's playable. Likewise, Nick Williams (-8 OAA) is slated for a platoon role at most this coming season.

The club also acquired Jean Segura to play shortstop in 2019. His five DRS for the Mariners last year is a massive upgrade from the -24 that four players combined for at the position in Philadelphia. Similarly, 3B Maikel Franco will either improve his play (-12 DRS last year) or start losing playing time in favor of Scott Kingery. 2B Cesar Hernandez also left a lot to be desired with the glove (-12 DRS), but he could also lose playing time if he isn't performing.

In summation, Pivetta combines a strong fastball with a high-spin curve and solid slider to generate Ks. The defense behind him should do a lot to control his prior "bad luck" on batted balls, giving Pivetta SP3 and maybe even SP2 potential at a price outside the top-150. That's the kind of profit that wins fantasy leagues.

Verdict: Champ (based on ADP of 156)

 

Victor Robles (OF, WAS) - ADP: 101.57

Fantasy owners are high on Robles, as you usually need to consider using a top-100 pick in order to land him. Robles is nearly a complete unknown, so it's fair to question if he is worth it.

Robles only has 340 PAs in the High Minors, and they were split between Double-A Harrisburg in 2017 and Triple-A Syracuse in 2018. He looked great at Double-A (.324/.394/.489 with three homers in 158 PAs), but an inflated 28.6% LD% inflated his BABIP to a likely unsustainable .368. He also popped up a lot (25% IFFB%, roughly 12.5% in major league terms) for a guy showing minimal power (32.1% FB%, 8.3% HR/FB). At least his plate discipline was good (7.6% BB%, 13.9% K%).

Robles regressed to a .278/.356/.386 triple slash line with two homers in 182 PAs at Triple-A last year. His LD% cratered to 18.2%, bringing his BABIP to a more sustainable .318. He also upped his FB% to 39.4%, but it didn't do him any good with a HR/FB of 3.8%. His IFFB% held at 25 percent, which is a lot of pop-ups coming off of a nearly-40% FB%. His plate discipline remained strong (9.9% BB%, 14.3% K%), but big-league hurlers aren't going to walk somebody with his wheels unless he shows some power.

Robles's fantasy value will come primarily from his speed. He went 22-for-31 in SB attempts in 2014, 24-for-29 in 2015, 37-for-50 in 2016, 27-for-37 in 2017, and 22-for-31 last season. Outside of 2015 (83%), his success rates have hovered in the 71-74% range. That works, but it gives him absolutely no leeway to decline at the highest level if he wants to maintain a green light. Likewise, a pure-speed play who has only eclipsed 30 swipes in one MiLB campaign suggests that he might have a relatively limited upside in the category.

There is also the question of his lineup spot to consider. Both Adam Eaton and Trea Turner profile as perfect leadoff hitters, so it will probably be tough for Robles to escape from the 8th spot in the order. Not only will this limit his R+RBI opportunities, it could also suppress his SB total as many managers are hesitant to run into an out and force the pitcher to lead off the next inning.

Even the 8th spot in the order may be more than Robles is guaranteed. If there is any truth to the rumors that Bryce Harper is considering a return to Washington, Robles seems likely to lose his everyday gig to a Juan Soto/Eaton/Harper outfield. Even if Harper elects not to return, Michael Taylor is passable enough to trot out there if the Nats want to play service time games.

Both Mallex Smith (99.33 ADP) and Jose Peraza (97.25) offer comparable speed with more consistent playing time at roughly the same cost. Alternatively, you can bet on a Josh Donaldson rebound (102.49), Michael Conforto breakout (107.37), or Daniel Murphy at Coors Field (103.18) at the same point in the draft. With unsure playing time, a bad batting order spot, and BABIP red flags, Robles shouldn't be taken at a point in the draft where you're counting on him for Opening Day.

Verdict: Chump (based on ADP of 101.5)

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP