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Justin Herbert or Justin Fields - who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football drafts? Brandon analyzes NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Justin Fields vs. Justin Herbert for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans alike with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is the Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team.
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of QBs Justin Fields and Justin Herbert and see who may be the better pick for your fantasy football team.
Justin Fields - QB, Chicago Bears
QB6 - ADP: 43 Overall
Justin Fields enters the 2023 season with a bit of hype surrounding him, similar to what we saw with Jalen Hurts a season ago. The discussion with Hurts was just how much his fantasy upside was provided by his rushing prowess and lack of consistency in the passing game.
This can be described in the same vein as Justin Fields' 2022 performance. He was the only quarterback in the NFL to rush for 1,000 yards (1,143 to be exact) and no other QB was within 300 yards of his mark. His rushing numbers alone would have placed him as a fringe RB2 in scoring in 2022.
Once you take your eyes away from the rushing numbers, things began to get a little iffy last year for Fields. Due to the play calling, his passing numbers were suspect at best in 2022 as he ranked 27th in pass attempts (318), 26th in passing yards (2,242), and 25th in accuracy rating (7.4).
Being held back by a conservative offensive approach that ranked dead last in pass plays per game (22.4), it's amazing just how much he left on the table from a scoring perspective as he still finished as QB5 in fantasy points per game (20.5).
Heading into the 2023 season, the Bears have attempted to upgrade the pieces around Fields with the acquisition of D.J. Moore and focus on improving an offensive line that ranked 30th in protection rate a season ago.
Now, the QB's progression hinges somewhat on the coaching staff employing a more aggressive offensive scheme to keep defenses on their toes. If the Bears can become more balanced on offense in 2023, the sky could be the limit for Fields from a fantasy point of view.
Sure, his rushing numbers could take a slight hit from first thought. But if the passing game were to improve, his number increase there would help offset the loss. The winning formula for this coaching staff would be to develop a downfield aspect in the passing game, which also opens up running lanes for Fields to hit on the big plays we saw from him in 2022 (three rushing scores from over 40 yards).
Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers
QB7 - ADP: 45 Overall
From the surface, Justin Herbert had a terrible statistical season in 2022. His efficiency was horrendous as he finished QB15 in fantasy PPG (17.1) while ranking as QB2 in pass attempts (699), QB2 in passing yards (4,739), and QB8 in passing touchdowns (25).
In the ever-evolving game of fantasy football, Herbert is one of the few quarterbacks that brings no rushing potential to the table, limiting his upside. Even though this offense placates to his strengths, ranking second in passing plays per game (41.9), his QB26 finish in fantasy points per dropback (0.40) shows what the lack of rushing potential can do to your fantasy upside.
With his receivers fighting injuries for much of the season, the big play potential of the offense took a hit (only two touchdowns over 40 yards) and limited Herbert to just two top-five weekly finishes on the year.
As the 2023 season approaches, the Chargers have provided Herbert with a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore (formerly with Dallas) and a potential home run threat in first-round wide receiver Quentin Johnston. The addition of Moore as the play-caller is an exciting one, as he has already stated a desire to take advantage of Herbert's arm strength and attack defenses down the field.
This will add another layer to the Chargers offense that should become hard to defend with Austin Ekeler doing damage from the backfield himself. If Johnston can quickly acclimate to the league and Keenan Allen and Mike Williams can stay healthy, Herbert should see his best statistical season to date. With these key additions, look for Herbert to again flirt with 40 passing scores as he did in 2021 (38 TDs) on the way to a QB2 finish.
Fantasy Football Verdict
As we see with the current ADP, these two quarterbacks are virtually being taken back-to-back in drafts. When the perception of two players is this close, fantasy managers often find themselves in a coin-toss situation to determine a selection. But the decision should come down to which player will provide you with the most upside.
In this case, that player for me would be Justin Fields. He provides a safe floor due to the potential rushing output, but the intrigue for me comes from the passing standpoint. If there is any stark improvement in this department, Fields could easily bring the potential to improve upon his ADP and push for a top-three finish at the position.
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