A Tale of Two Months: Second Base

June 4, 2021

Nicklaus Gaut analyzes fantasy baseball risers and fallers at second base. He breaks down which 2B have the biggest changes in their wOBA from April to March.

With two months now in the books, and many players having played nearly as many games as they did in 2020, it's time to take stock on the truth behind various hot starts and slumps.

However, we shouldn't do so just for our own edification, as there is good instruction to be had. Knowing who to target and who to trade away; who can be relied on for the future and who you need to have backup plans for.

With that in mind, we're going to go around the positions, using the biggest differences in wOBA between April and May as our jumping-off point. Let's find some truth in spring advertisements, shall we? We started at first base, now let's move over to the keystone.

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Second Base wOBA Changes

First, a few parameters and explanations. We'll use a minimum of 50 PA in each of April and May as our cutoff and players will be sorted according to change in wOBA. Values mentioned are from the FanGraphs auction calculator, using settings for a 12-team league with: C (1) - 1B (1) - 2B (1) - SS (1) - 3B (1) - OF (5) - MI (1) - CI (1) - UT (1).

The Good

Jonathan Schoop, 1B/2B, DET

216 PA: 7 HR - 21 R - 21 RBI - 0 SB - .246/.296/.387

Schoop was positively brutal in April, slashing .198/.230/.284, with a .226 wOBA, .514 OPS, and 40 wRC+ but has started to turn things around in May. Unfortunately, the "big" turnaround is still a remarkably average .329 wOBA (.305 xwOBA) and .746 OPS in May, with an even more mediocre .367 wOBAcon (wOBA on contact) and .333 xwOBA. Schoop still hits fastballs like he always has, with a .357 wOBA against them that is right in line with his .361 wOBA in 2020 but again, his .306 xwOBA isn't as impressive.

However, versus non-fastballs, and particularly against offspeed pitches, Schoop has taken a step back. He has a .230 wOBA (.270 xwOBA) vs breaking pitches that is down from a .266 wOBA in 2020 and .355 wOBA in 2019 but has struggled even more to do damage against them. He had a .594 SLG against breakers in 2019 that dropped to a .364 SLG in 2020 and now sits at a .282 SLG in 2021. Although, a .342 xSLG does speak to a bit more success in the future.

While Schoop crushed offspeed pitches in 2019-2020, posting a .566 SLG and .359 wOBA against them in 2019, followed by a .615 SLG and .443 wOBA in 2020. That has dropped to a .471 SLG and .342 wOBA in 2021, backed by a .314 xwOBA and .397 xSLG.

Cesar Hernandez, 2B, CLE

233 PA: 8 HR - 30 R - 17 RBI - 0 SB - .216/.300/.380

After an impressive May, I would think that Hernandez's Roster% would begin to rise but he's still available in 70% of ESPN leagues and 85% of Yahoo leagues. His overall line is still quite unimpressive, slashing .216/.300/.380, with a .301 wOBA and 90 wRC+ but he's been a run-scoring machine, as of late, scoring 18 runs in May after just 12 runs in April. And while it's not the best losing Franmil Reyes to injury, Hernandez still has Jose Ramirez to knock him in.

If you missed it, Hernandez also started hitting the ball a lot harder in 2020 and that trend has continued in 2021. After sitting consistently around a 28-29% Hard% for most of his career, Hernandez leveled up to a 37.3% Hard% in 2020 and sits at a 40% Hard% in 2021. But as opposed to last year, when he was still pounding the ball into the ground at his normal 50% rate, Hernandez has gone for elevation in 2021, particularly in May. His 26.9% FB% (from Baseball Savant, so pop-ups are not included) is a career-high and is up from a 13.0% FB% in 2020, while his average launch angle of 12.8 degrees is also a career-high, up from 5.6 degrees in 2020.

I'm thinking maybe he should keep it up:

The Bad

Nick Solak, 2B/OF, TEX

244 PA: 8 HR - 35 R - 24 RBI - 2 SB - .235/.311/.406

I'm sure you still remember the great Solak power breakout of April 2020 but if not, let me remind you. Solak hit seven home runs in the first month of the season, posting a .242 ISO, .535 SLG, .910 OPS, and .395 wOBA. May, however, has not been as kind. Over 123 PA, Solak has ran just a .118 ISO, .318 SLG, .586 OPS, and a .260 wOBA. He hasn't just dropped back to the pack, Solak is bringing up the rear.

Solak is still handling LHP, posting a .363 wOBA and 135 wRC+ against them but has a .297 wOBA and 90 wRC+ vs RHP. And don't be fooled by a .170 ISO vs RHP that's right around his .179 ISO vs LHP because he has a .211 AVG and .381 SLG vs RHP, compared to a .299 AVG and .478 SLG vs LHP. Given the above, it shouldn't come as a surprise that his wOBA on contact has also taken a nosedive in May. Solak's .522 wOBAcon and .477 xwOBAcon in April has dropped to a .293 wOBAcon and .349 xwOBAcon in May.

Adding insult to injury, he's also whiffing way more, with a 28.7% K% vs RHP and a 20.5% K% vs LHP, and has a 26.3% K% overall that is up from 18.0% K% in 2020, and a 21.5% K% in 2019. This increase isn't a fluke, as it's backed by a 13.1% SwStr% that is up from a 7.8% SwStr% in 2020, and an 8.5% SwStr% in 2019, along with a 30.0% Whiff% that's up from 19.1% in 2020. And while his swings on pitches in the zone have stayed fairly steady, his contact on balls in the zone has plummeted from 90.4% in 2020 to 77.1% in 2021 - or, about five-points below league average.

One more bucket of cold water on the Solak breakout bandwagon. He's crushing heaters, with a +0.4 run value against them (per 100 pitches) that's up from -1.1 RV/100 in 2020 and has also improved versus sliders, increasing from a -0.9 RV/100 last year, to a +0.7 RV/100 in 2021. Unfortunately, his performance against curveballs and changeups has dropped dramatically, after Solak more than handled them in 2019-2020. He has a -1.5 RV/100 against changeups that is down from +3.1 RV/100 in 2020, and his -3.6 RV/100 against curveballs is down from +2.6 RV/100 in 2020. In other words, he went from one of the best to one of the worst. This is not a good thing.

Okay, I was just kidding about the whole "one more bucket" thing. How about just one more, teeny-tiny bucket? Because those touting Solak's fantasy goodness were doing so not just on the strength of his bat but also the speed in his legs. While his sprint speed is still in the 94th percentile, the stolen bases haven't followed its lead. Solak has just two stolen bases in 240 PA, after stealing seven bases in 233 PA last season. And to make matters worse, both of those stolen bases came in the same game...on April 6. Since then, Solak has only attempted two stolen bases, with the last attempt coming on May 9. Once again, not a good thing.

Eduardo Escobar, 2B/3B, ARI

242 PA: 13 HR - 32 R - 39 RBI - 1 SB - .244/.293/.462

With a preseason ADP above 300, it looked like the fantasy community was throwing Escobar on the value trash heap. But he's been a revelation in 2021, hitting 13 HR in 241 PA, with 32 runs, and 39 RBI. But the wheels might be coming off and those rostering him may want to take his banked value and run. He's dropped from a .359 wOBA and .847 OPS in April to a .284 wOBA and .656 OPS in May, with his .283 ISO and .535 SLG dropping to a .184 ISO and .404 SLG.

Escobar has been walking less (8.3% BB% to 4.2 BB%) and striking out more (18.3% K% up to 25.2% K%), and while he's chasing less (26.5% Chase%, a career-low), his contact on balls in the zone has dropped from 86.7% in 2020 to a career-low 80.8% in 2021. Make your contingency plans now (like, I don't know, maybe Cesar Hernandez?) because the Escobar train might be coming to a halt soon.

The Meh

Ozzie Albies, 2B, ATL

223 PA: 9 HR - 33 R - 32 RBI - 5 SB - .251/.323/.497

Albies hasn't seen much change in wOBA and OPS but he's really having his fantasy value held back  by his batting average. Looking at his overall fantasy earnings through May, Albies is positive in runs scored (+$2.7), HR (+$1.5), and RBI (+$1.0), and his 5 SB puts him even at $0.0. However, his .251 AVG has him at -$3.8.

However, it's backed by a .285 xBA and his very average .338 wOBA has a more respectable .370 xwOBA behind it. Albies is also running a .411 xwOBAcon and 38.0% Hard% that are both career-highs, with a 15.7% K% and 8.5% BB% that are both near career-bests. And the heat-up may have already started; Albies has seven hits in three games in June and has now collected multiple hits in six of his last 10 games.

Brandon Lowe, 2B/OF, TB

223 PA: 9 HR - 29 R - 23 RBI - 3 SB - .196/.314/.370

He hasn't seen big dips in his OPS and wOBA between April and May but Lowe was still only the #12 2B by value in 12-team leagues, only returning positive categorical value with his nine home runs while getting positively crushed by a .196 AVG (-$8.3). His .226 xBA is a lot better but is still .226, so let's not get too excited. His 39.8% GB% is up seven-points compared to 2019-2020, with a career-low 13.6 degree average launch angle, swinging over the top of the ball more with a 31.7% Topped% that's up from 25.5% in 2020 and 22.3% in 2019.

The bigger problem, though, is just how atrociously awful Lowe has been vs LHP. He has a .162 wOBA and 3 (!) wRC+ vs LHP in 2021, with a  .343 OPS and 40.3% K%. History has told us by now that this is the kind of splits nonsense that the Rays will not tolerate for long. This might not matter as much in daily moves leagues (if you can afford to sit him on LHP days) but in weekly leagues Lowe could be a real wild card during weeks where Tampa is facing multiple lefties.

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