RADIO
Saturday ended up being a 2-2 finish with the Grizzlies pulling out a big win late against the Bulls and the Heat-Spurs game going well over its total. I whiffed on the Cavs game total and the Raptors had my hopes up after they took a five-point lead in the first quarter, only to get blown out in the second half. Toronto has lost my trust, and apparently all the momentum they had going into the All-Star break. With seven more games on the slate tonight, it's time to find where the value is and get back at it once again.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, February 28th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 103-96-2
- Against the Spread 58-46-2
- Over/Under 24-34
- Other/Props 21-16
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Indiana Pacers (+1) @ Orlando Magic (231.5 total)
As much as I'd rather not have to rely on some bad teams today, I am going to recommend betting on a few of them as they appear to be the best spots on the slate to take advantage of given the odds and data.
I'm trying to figure out how the Pacers are underdogs here. Yes, they've been pretty bad for well over a month now and they lost a ton of games while Brogdon, Sabonis, Turner were all out. They've traded away Sabonis and LeVert but brought in Buddy Hield and Tyrese Haliburton, who have both looked good in Indiana with more opportunity. They're 2-1 over their last three games and have Malcolm Brogdon back in the lineup now.
Brogdon and Haliburton have played well together and the departure of Sabonis has allowed young big men Jalen Smith, Oshae Brissett, and Isaiah Jackson to flourish. This team could be dangerous down the stretch with Hield's shooting and Chris Duarte as a scorer coming off the bench. Boston found that out the hard way as the Pacers beat them by 20 yesterday.
Orlando is still very, very bad and a recent win against the hapless Rockets doesn't move the needle much for me. I love the Pacers here and I'd hit that ML very soon as I think they end up favored by game time. Maybe even consider some alternate spreads where you lay a few points to get better odds. The Pacers are going to win this game (possibly handily) tonight.
The Pick: Pacers ML (-105)
Sacramento Kings (-4.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (229 total)
Ok, prepare for a potentially very hot take. The Thunder are going to cover this spread and might just win this game outright. If you're still reading after that, here's why.
Yes, OKC is without Josh Giddey, but their best player, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back and playing at a very high level right now (32 and 36 points scored in his last two games). The injuries to Dort and Giddey have forced some of the other OKC players to step up with Tre Mann starting to show some promise as the scoring compliment to SGA. The frontcourt has been much improved lately with Darius Bazley playing well and they're getting decent production from Pokusevski and Roby, too.
Did the acquisition of Sabonis actually make the Kings any better? That remains to be seen but after a few wins right after the trade, this team has now dropped four in a row. Sabonis is always going to put up counting stats, but he's not a good defender and the Kings are really lacking in talent once you get past the Fox-Sabonis-Barnes trio. Their defense is abysmal and I think they're ripe for an upset on the road here against a red-hot SGA.
The Kings lead the season series 2-1, but these teams are both very different when it comes to personal than they were in any of those meetings. As far as trends go, did you know that OKC is covering the spread at the second-highest rate in the league this year? Yep, they're right up there with good teams like Memphis, Chicago, Cleveland, and Miami.
I'm adding the UNDER here as my game total pick as the model thinks this total is massively inflated. I updated my model to weigh the last ten games more and give us some more reliable numbers. Even with those tweaks made, this total is still coming out way too high. I like the under even if this total drops a few points and I'll note that the three prior meetings ended up all under 229 and the average of these totals is only 217 points.
The Pick: Thunder +4.5 (+110)
Bonus Pick: UNDER 229 (-110)
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 PM UPDATE
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 40.5 PRA (-110)
Tyrese Haliburton over 32.5 PRA (-105) - Brogdon is out!
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
I'm going to keep it super simple here and pair some solid home favorites with great track records of winning at home. I like the Heat to hold off the Bulls and the Grizzlies to beat the Spurs.
The Pick: Grizzlies/Heat ML Parlay (-102)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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