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Welcome back to my PGA DFS lineup picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational on DraftKings! Many golfers barely miss out on being mentioned here by a fraction of a percent, so if you have any questions about a particular player from a PGA DFS or PGA betting perspective, you can contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
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PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - Arnold Palmer Invitational
We have a special treat for all you RotoBallers and golf enthusiasts. In addition to this article, be sure to also check out Spencer's PGA DFS Rankings Wizard - a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet, allowing user inputs to create custom rankings and models for golf. If you want to create your own spreadsheet, you will need to make a copy under "file." We hope you enjoy!
Bay Hill Club & Lodge
7,454 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda
Only one of five tournaments on the PGA Tour with invitational status, the API isn't for the faint of heart, as we have seen the highest percentage of penalty strokes at the venue in two of the past three years. That level of difficulty sometimes makes the handicapping process more straightforward when statistics like putting won't be as impactful to the dispersion of scoring - no wonder Jon Rahm wants to play this event -but the lack of statistical predictability turns this contest into a nightmare for most golf pundits.
Over the years, we have seen all game types find success at Bay Hill. It is one of the reasons why strokes gained data in all non-putting categories have been at or above expectation level at the track, and we see that point highlighted by a 3.8% increase in the numbers when it comes to driving the ball and iron play. Par-three scoring has been instrumental in determining the winner, with the last eight victors placing inside the top-seven of the field on these holes, but the real scoring chances for the participants will start to take place on the par-fives. If we exclude the four that Bay Hill presents the field in each round, there isn't a hole with higher than an 18.2% birdie or better rate, which pails in comparison to the 33 to 57% totals we get at these four scoreable chances.
Long iron play and total driving will be at a premium to avoid the penalties mentioned earlier, and if the 10 holes with water and 85 sand traps aren't daunting enough, three-inch-thick rye rough and speedy medium-sized greens will play as a deadly one-two combination against the field for two reasons. For starters, controlling your ball out of these lies can be nearly impossible at times because of the dense nature of the grass, but you also have a secondary situation that creeps into play since most approaches will lack the apex and spin needed to hold these fiery greens. An all-around game will go a long way for those trying to find success, but that answer always limits some of the metrics since anyone who excels in one of the three main strokes gained categories can triumph over the venue.
Let's Look At The Stats
| Stat | Bay Hill | Tour Average |
| Driving Distance | 276 | 282 |
| Driving Accuracy | 65% | 62% |
| GIR Percentage | 60% | 65% |
| Scrambling Percentage | 57% | 57% |
| Average Three-Putts Per Round | 0.56 | 0.55 |
Key Stats
- Weighted Tee-To-Green (25%)
- Weighted Fast Bermuda (12.5%)
- Strokes Gained Total Difficult/Long Courses (10%)
- Weighted Par-Three (10%)
- Weighted Par-Five (17.5%)
- Total Driving (15%)
- Weighted Proximity 150+ (10%)
I will take a deeper dive into what went into these totals later in the week on my podcast. If you aren't doing so already, you can follow Bettor Golf Podcast on Twitter.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
We have tons of great weekly PGA articles, DFS analysis, tools and DFS advice. Be sure to read our other fantastic articles regarding this week's event.
High-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
This week, there are five players priced above $10,000. Please remember this is always a first look at the field. Opinions might shift slightly as the week goes on, and I am more than happy to discuss anyone further on Twitter.
Jon Rahm ($11,400)
It is hard to be overly critical of Jon Rahm, who has been a wrecking ball for the rest of the tour over the past few years. Since the Memorial in 2020, the Spaniard has made 33 of 36 cuts, posting 25 top-15 results, including 10 such finishes in his past 14 showings. I would be lying if I said it was all sunshine and rainbows for the 27-year-old during his most recent starts, which is evident by him losing negative-two shots to the field with his short game since the American Express in January, but the removal of importance when it comes to the putter at Bay Hill should give a boost to his immaculate ball-striking marks. The only thing I want to note is that Rahm continues to spiral with his demeanor on the course, and with the API resulting in the most considerable impact we see yearly in water penalties, there are some concerns an ejection could ensue at any moment. I will be looking elsewhere in cash-game contests, but Rahm is always a lineup fixture to consider in GPPs.
Rory McIlroy ($11,100)
You might find it difficult to pinpoint where Rory McIlroy's game is from a statistical perspective since the restart in September. There have only been two tournaments where we can retrieve PGA Tour data - one taking place at the CJ Cup where he lost strokes on his approach and gained six with his putter en route to the title, and the other saw a very similar trajectory at the Genesis, with him earning 5.2 shots to the field but breaking even with his irons during a 10th-place finish. As everyone knows by now, I run a two-year regression model to try and remove some of the short-term influence from my numbers. The main reason for that is to get a larger sample size to compare to the recency bias that is taking place for most users, but I also believe the longer you stretch the totals, the more precise you can get in figuring out accurate baseline projections. Rory will be extremely popular because of his five straight top-10 finishes at Bay Hill, but it is impossible to argue against the masses here. The Irishman is one of only four players (the other three being Hovland, Rahm and Hideki) that rank inside the top-20 of every statistical metric I attached a weight.
Viktor Hovland ($10,800)
It is impossible to explain some of these weird trends on tour. I don't understand why Viktor Hovland has yet to win on American soil, even though he has posted three PGA Tour titles outside of the country, but we see anomalies when you try to crunch numbers together all the time. Hovland ranks first in both proximity from 150 yards and beyond and weighted par-five scoring, and he also checks in at a stout second in total driving. If the short game can be decent for the week, the 24-year-old has a real shot at ending the drought.
Other Thoughts: The entire $10,000 and above range is in play as of Monday.
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Mid-Priced DraftKings DFS Players
$9,000 Range
Sungjae Im ($9,900)
Am I surprised by Sungjae Im's early ownership projection? Yes. Do I believe it remains around 15%? No. I know the industry is much sharper now than a few years ago. A missed cut used to be taken so personally by the masses that it would result in these free square contrarian shots, but even if gamers are much more likely to trust their baseline totals and not overreact to one bad showing, I still believe there is too much ownership flocking to the likes of Will Zalatoris, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Marc Leishman for it to keep hovering in this zone. Sungjae's course history of 21st, third, and third will likely keep him over 10 percent, but it probably won't be high enough for the upside he possesses.
Other Thoughts: I will be keeping an eye on the ownership for Tyrrell Hatton, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Will Zalatoris. Hatton will likely be the contrarian pivot of the group, which is worth mentioning because he is -110 against Zalatoris in their head-to-head matchup on most sites.
$8,000 Range
Max Homa ($8,700)
Two top-24 finishes at Bay Hill in his two attempts, Max Homa ranks inside the top-30 of this field in total-driving, par-five scoring and weighted proximity. Those are likely the three most important categories for the week, and although his ownership is trending towards the wrong end of the spectrum, I don't have an issue where he currently sits at between 10-13%.
Paul Casey ($8,300)
Paul Casey’s upside is always in question, but the reduced price tag means we will gladly take what he typically provides. Casey ranks sixth in my model from an overall sense, and his matchups at some of the sharper offshore books against Will Zalatoris and Tyrrell Hatton show his pricing error for the week. I don’t necessarily trust the short game, and I think he is dodgy out of bunkers, but it would have been a different story if the Englishman was $1,000 more expensive. Everyone has red flags of some kind at this point.
Keith Mitchell ($8,100)
Look, we are going to have to see where Keith Mitchell's projection goes by Thursday because he is currently the second-highest projected player in terms of ownership behind Will Zalatoris for the week, but Mitchell's mixture of course history and current form are about as high as anyone in this field. I will probably use the American primarily for cash if we don’t get a correction of some kind, but let's see where this number goes before locking in a decision.
Sergio Garcia ($8,100)
We haven’t seen Sergio Garcia at this course since 2012, but four top-33s in his four career attempts should provide a solid opening to get unique. I think this is a similar spot to Tyrrell Hatton where the price tag might be a little high, but consider Garcia an interesting MME target that you don’t need much of to get exponentially overweight to the field.
Low-Priced DraftKings DFS Players To Consider ($7,000)
Corey Conners ($7,700)
Bad form doesn't always equate to poor play. If you have been reading my articles over the past month, you will know I have been driving the train on fading Corey Conners every chance we get. And honestly, even that is an unfair blanket statement to make when discussing my feelings around Conners this week. I am someone that puts together my model weekly with zero care (aside from the weight that goes into the current form portion) for how someone has played over a small sample size. I often think numbers get overly inflated or decreased because of nothing but fluff, and we have that situation for Conners at the API where HORRIBLE past venues for his game are affecting his current price tag at a track that should meet his eye. I am back on board the Conners movement at Bay Hill and believe he exceeds his salary cost on DraftKings.
Keegan Bradley ($7,300)
These contests where birdies are hard to come by will always benefit the poor putters. It doesn't take an over-explanation of why that is the case, but we have seen it historically for Keegan Bradley at Bay Hill - a tournament he has made the cut during his past nine trips. Bradley is ranked fifth in my model when I recalculated the metrics to produce a course-specific tee-to-green total, and we continue to see the golfers known for their ball-striking grading nicely in my 'DFS Wizard.'
Other Thoughts: DAYYYYY, Rose, List, Young, Na, Van Rooyen, Munoz and Laird are all in play for me early on Monday.
Sub-$6,000 Options To Consider
We are still early in the week. I will continue to run numbers as more ownership comes in for these $7,000/$6,000 golfers.
Carlos Ortiz $6,900, Rickie Fowler $6,900, Aaron Wise $6,900 (it has to work eventually...), Garrick Higgo $6,700, Adam Svensson $6,700, Cameron Davis $6,600, Charles Howell III $6,400 and Adam Schenk $6,100.
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