RADIO
A bit of an inauspicious start to the season, going 2-for-6. Thankfully, the two winners were the big plays so the damage was minimized. Unfortunately for us, Arsenal had to do without their top-two strikers (both of whom were absent due to illness which wasn't known until a few hours before kick-off) and had to start their fourth-choice striker making his first EPL start. Burnley relinquished their first-half lead and couldn't hold on for a draw, otherwise, we'd have had a sweep and correct score there. Everton managed to overturn a half-time deficit to pick us up a win there too.
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on them. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game I look at (although these are notoriously difficult to pick so I'm not suggesting you bet on these significantly) and will be picking the bets I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how.
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2021-22 EPL Betting Picks
- Total picks: 2-4 (-0.96 U)
- Match results: 1-2
- Correct scores: 0-3
Saturday, August 21st, 2021
Newcastle United (+326) at Aston Villa (-116) - 10:00 am ET
Both teams lost last week despite them scoring two goals each as Newcastle led twice only to lose 4-2 at home to West Ham while Aston Villa found themselves three goals down against newly-promoted Watford before making the scoreline look more respectable in a 3-2 defeat.
The loss of Jack Grealish (transferred to Manchester City for £100m) is a big one for Aston Villa but they signed Emiliano Buendia and Danny Ings (who scored on debut last week) to offset that loss. Along with Ollie Watkins, they have enough goals in their lineup to win most games and should be capable of scoring two or more here.
Newcastle only managed seven clean sheets last season and conceded the fifth-most goals (62) in the league. They conceded two or more in 20 of their 38 league games last season as well. In Callum Wilson, they have a proven goalscorer so I do fancy them to find the back of the net in this one, but I felt they will be in a relegation battle before the season started and I haven't seen anything to change my mind.
Last season, Aston Villa won this fixture 2-0 with two first-half goals proving enough while the reverse fixture was a 1-1 draw. Following last season's record number of away wins (likely due to the lack of fans), last week saw seven of the ten games end in home wins as the balance seems to be restored with full stadiums. I expect another home win here.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 3 - 1 Newcastle United
Betting Picks:
- Match result - Aston Villa to win (-116) 1.5 units
- Half-time/Full-time - Aston Villa/Aston Villa (+188) 1 unit
- Total goals - Over 2.75 (+101) 1 unit
Everton (+205) at Leeds United (+146) - 10:00 am ET
Contrasting fortunes for these two last week with Everton running out 3-1 winners at home to Southampton while Leeds suffered a heavy defeat at Manchester United, going down 5-1. They lost the same fixture 6-2 last season so I'm not pushing the panic button yet for Leeds and think they'll still end up around mid-table.
Only bottom of the table Sheffield United drew fewer games than Leeds last season (5) and all of their draws came at home as their high tempo play lends itself to forcing a result either way, especially in away games. Leeds' games were considerably more high scoring away from home (67 total goals) than at home (49 total goals) last season. Of the nine games against other top-10 teams at home, Leeds only managed one win (Tottenham), with three losses and five draws. That includes a 2-1 defeat against Everton.
Everton hasn't made any significant signings yet but their second-half display last week looked more cohesive and saw them score all three of their goals. I expect them to be more pragmatic away from home with new Manager Rafael Benitez offering a more organized and tactical approach than perhaps some other Premier League managers. Leeds' Marcelo Bielsa isn't someone who that applies to with his tactics being well renowned and I think this game offers an intriguing tactical battle early in the season.
Leeds are understandably favorites to win this one but I expect the two teams and veteran coaches to cancel each other out. I don't think a draw is a bad result for either team with Leeds looking to get on the board after last week's heavy defeat and Everton seeking to build a solid foundation to start the season.
With players still building up match fitness, it may come as no surprise that 21 of the 34 goals scored last week were in the second half of games. There's a case for the same here in what I suspect will be a tight game which will open up a bit more in the latter stages.
Score prediction: Leeds United 1 - 1 Everton
Betting Picks:
- Match result - Draw (+248) 0.5 units
- Half with most goals - Second half (+110) 1 unit
- Draw no bet - Everton (+118) 1 unit
Sunday, August 22nd, 2021
Manchester United (-152) at Southampton (+430) - 9:00 am ET
These two teams combined for ten goals in their games last week. As mentioned, Southampton lost 3-1 at Everton and Manchester United beat Leeds 5-1. Interestingly, both teams led their respective games 1-0 at half-time which plays into the narrative of more second-half goals than in the first halves of games. It also tells a story of what to expect from these two teams this season.
Speaking of goals, the two games between these teams last season produced 14 goals with Manchester United winning both (9-0 and 3-2). Despite this fixture being 3-2 last season, Manchester United was lucky to get anything out of the game, let alone win it as they trailed 2-0 at half-time and needed an injury-time winner. I don't foresee them going behind 2-0 this time and last year's 9-0 game saw Southampton reduced to 10-man in the second minute.
Regardless of those anomalies, last week's results lead me to believe Manchester United run out comfortable winners this week. Southampton's 68 goals conceded last season was the second-most in the league and Manchester United's 73 goals scored was second-most.
Over the last three seasons, Southampton has managed three draws against Manchester United with the other three games being losses. And those six games have combined for a total of 29 goals. Southampton had scored in all of those games prior to the 9-0 defeat and I can see them possibly scoring on Sunday, even without Danny Ings.
Regardless of that, it's unlikely they'll be able to prevent Manchester United from scoring two or more themselves and I expect the away team to run out comfortable winners. Every season throws out some heavy defeats (like last season's 9-0) and while I don't expect anything too crazy, I wouldn't be surprised if Manchester United ran out big winners.
Score prediction: Southampton 0 - 3 Manchester United
Betting Picks:
- Handicap - Manchester United -1 (+112) 1.5 units
- Handicap - Manchester United -2 (+400) 0.5 units
- Total goals - Over 2.5 (-131) 1.5 units
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly!
