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After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that managed to maintain their core coaching staff this offseason was the New Orleans Saints, with head coach Sean Payton, offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen all returning for the 2021-22 season.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Saints players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Saints coaches help bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Saints' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
34.87 | 251.78 | 1.56 | 3.56 | 15.04 | 0.16 |
| 2020 League Average | 35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
21.77 | 92.96 | 0.68 | 5.10 | 6.64 | 40 | 0.19 |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
12.05 | 19.59 | 158.39 | 0.95 |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2019 League Average
|
4.70 | 6.88 | 50.99 | 0.38 |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 22.8 | 235 | 112.9 | 63.5 | 5.5 | 1.4 | |
| 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
2021 Offense
2021 Head Coach: Sean Payton
Sean Payton has been an offensive coordinator for the New York Giants (2000-2002) and has been the head coach for the New Orleans Saints since 2006 (2006-2011, 2013-Present). Given Sean Payton's offensive background, let's take a look at some of his team's offensive statistics over the course of his 272 game career as either an offensive coordinator or head coach.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Saints | 16 | 36.31 | 276.94 | 2.25 | 4 | 11.44 | 0.13 |
| 2020 Saints | 16 | 32.63 | 246.56 | 1.75 | 7.06 | 28.06 | 0.63 |
| Payton's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 272 | 37.46 | 285.61 | 1.93 | 2.55 | 4.93 | 0.12 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Saints | 16 | 20.38 | 93.44 | 0.63 | 7.31 | 8.94 | 48.75 | 0.13 |
| 2020 Saints | 16 | 22.69 | 107.31 | 1.25 | 6.81 | 8.69 | 59.94 | 0.38 |
| Payton's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 272 | 23.54 | 103.86 | 0.88 | 7.20 | 9.19 | 56.17 | 0.25 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Saints | 16 | 12.94 | 17.56 | 152.63 | 1 |
| 2020 Saints | 16 | 11.81 | 16.69 | 133.69 | 0.75 |
| Payton's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 272 | 12.39 | 18.97 | 170.47 | 1.13 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Saints | 16 | 4.25 | 6.25 | 58.19 | 0.75 |
| 2020 Saints | 16 | 3.75 | 5.38 | 45.06 | 0.56 |
| Payton's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 272 | 4.81 | 7.21 | 53.03 | 0.46 |
2021 Offensive Coordinator: Pete Carmichael Jr.
Pete Carmichael has been the New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator since 2009. Let's take a look at the performance of Carmichael's offenses over the course of his 192 game career as an offensive coordinator.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2019 Saints | 16 | 36.31 | 276.94 | 2.25 | 4 | 11.44 | 0.13 |
| 2020 Saints | 16 | 32.63 | 246.56 | 1.75 | 7.06 | 28.06 | 0.63 |
| Carmichael's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 192 | 38.27 | 298.33 | 2.18 | 2.56 | 6.01 | 0.16 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2019 Saints | 16 | 20.38 | 93.44 | 0.63 | 7.31 | 8.94 | 48.75 | 0.13 |
| 2020 Saints | 16 | 22.69 | 107.31 | 1.25 | 6.81 | 8.69 | 59.94 | 0.38 |
| Carmichael's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 192 | 22.81 | 104.02 | 0.85 | 7.59 | 9.56 | 59.56 | 0.31 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Saints | 16 | 12.94 | 17.56 | 152.63 | 1 |
| 2020 Saints | 16 | 11.81 | 16.69 | 133.69 | 0.75 |
| Carmichael's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 192 | 12.98 | 19.07 | 173.88 | 1.14 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2019 Saints | 16 | 4.25 | 6.25 | 58.19 | 0.75 |
| 2020 Saints | 16 | 3.75 | 5.38 | 45.06 | 0.56 |
| Carmichael's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 192 | 5.32 | 7.99 | 60.40 | 0.62 |
Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael Takeaways & Expectations
Since Sean Payton has been the primary play-caller for the Saints and Pete Carmichael has only worked under Payton as an offensive coordinator, we will talk primarily about the offense that Payton has liked to run over the course of his career in this section. Over the course of Sean Payton's 272 game career, his offenses have averaged 37.46 passing attempts per game - which is above-average. But in recent years that usage has dropped, with the team passing the ball 36.31 times per game in 2019 and just 32.63 times per game in 2020.
It's also important to pay attention to the amount of rushing work a quarterback receives since it can give your quarterback a higher ceiling in fantasy leagues. Over the course of his career, Payton's quarterback room has averaged 2.55 carries per game.
While Payton's career averages in quarterback carries per game are below average, it is encouraging to see a rapid increase in rushing work since 2018 - when Taysom Hill started to get more usage. Overall, the Saints quarterback competition between Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill will be an important one to watch this offseason because it will drastically impact the kind of offense that Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael run in 2021.
Examining Sean Payton's running back rooms over the course of his career, he's done a good job of utilizing his running backs. Over the course of the 272 games that Sean Payton has been a head coach, his running back room has averaged 0.88 rushing touchdowns per game - which is above-average. In addition, his running backs have averaged 23.54 carries per game over this time which is better than the average play-caller.
If old trends hold true, then Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael will give their running backs plenty of work on the ground. But in terms of the distribution of carries, are Payton and Carmichael feeding one back on the ground or rolling with a running back by committee approach?
Looking at the graph above, it's clear that over the course of a full season Sean Payton will divide the work on the ground and tend to roll with the committee approach. This is a little discouraging from a fantasy perspective, but it's important to remember that there is plenty of carries to distribute, and the most valuable fantasy asset in the Saints backfield tends to be the team's primary pass-catching back.
Over the course of his career, Sean Payton's running back room has averaged 9.19 targets per game - which is one of the best marks in the NFL.
Overall, Sean Payton and Pete Carmichael have done a phenomenal job in providing their tailbacks work both on the ground and through the air throughout their careers. Based on this information, Alvin Kamara should be a trustworthy RB1 once again for the 2021 NFL season.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, in Sean Payton's 272 game career as an offensive play-caller he has provided his wide receiver room with 18.97 targets per game.
Looking at the chart above, Sean Payton's wide receiver room had some major up and downs in usage for much of his career, but it has largely leveled out over the last four seasons he's been a head coach. This usage over the last four seasons has been below the league averages, so outside of Michael Thomas, the Saints may struggle to produce any wide receivers that are capable of being a FLEX play in your fantasy football league.
Finally, in his career as an offensive coordinator or head coach, Sean Payton's tight end room has averaged 7.21 targets per game.
This career average is pretty good. But looking at the graph above, you can see the high peaks in tight end usage during the Jimmy Graham years and a fall-off in usage in recent years. Based on this information, Adam Trautman is an okay flier late in fantasy drafts on the off-chance that Payton reverts to his career average - but just be prepared to cut bait early if it doesn't look that way the first few weeks of the season.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, Ian Book, Alvin Kamara, Latavius Murray, Dwayne Washington, Ty Montgomery, Michael Thomas, Tre'Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway, Kawaan Baker, Deonte Harris, Adam Trautman, and Nick Vannett
2021 Defense
2021 Defensive Coordinator: Dennis Allen
Dennis Allen joined the New Orleans Saints as a defensive coordinator back in 2015. He also has previously spent one season as the Denver Broncos defensive coordinator (2011) and 36 games as the Oakland Raiders' head coach (2012-2014). Because of his defensive background, let's take a look at some defensive statistics from Allen's time in a defensive coordinator or head coaching role.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2019 Saints | 16 | 21.31 | 241.75 | 91.31 | 62.44 | 5.33 | 1.44 |
| 2020 Saints | 16 | 21.06 | 217 | 93.88 | 62 | 5.01 | 1.63 |
| Allen's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 148 | 24.84 | 247.04 | 108.16 | 63.04 | 5.64 | 1.39 |
Over the past couple of seasons, the New Orleans Saints defense has been pretty good with Dennis Allen directing it. They have been above-average in points allowed, yards given up per play, turnovers forced, and rushing yards given up per game in both of the last two years and above-average in passing yards given up per game last year. Prior to the last couple of years, Dennis Allen's defenses weren't quite this good, but it is very encouraging to see that he's capable of producing a top-tier defense. Based on this information, the New Orleans Saints D/ST will likely be a slightly above-average defense that you feel comfortable with in most matchups.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Darren Rizzi - Darren Rizzi has been the Saints special teams coordinator since 2019. He has been involved in coaching since 1993, and previously spent time as the Miami Dolphins special teams coordinator (2010-2018).
QB Coach: Ronald Curry - Ronald Curry is the Saints' new quarterbacks coach in 2021 after Joe Lombardi joined Brandon Staley's coaching staff in Los Angeles. Curry has been coaching in a variety of roles for the New Orleans Saints since 2016 after previously serving as an offensive assistant on the San Francisco 49ers (2014-2015). He also played wide receiver in the NFL for the Oakland Raiders (2002-2008).
RB Coach: Joel Thomas - Joel Thomas has been involved in coaching since 2000 and has the New Orleans Saints running backs coach since 2015.
TE Coach: Dan Roushar - Dan Roushar has worked for the New Orleans Saints in a variety of roles since 2013. He has been coaching since 1986 and will be the team's run game coordinator and tight ends coach in 2021 after Dan Campbell left to be the Detroit Lions head coach.
OL Coach: Brendan Nugent - Brendan Nugent has been working for the New Orleans Saints since 2015, but 2021 will be his first year as the offensive line coach. He previously worked as the assistant offensive line coach from 2017-2020.
DL Coach: Ryan Nielsen - Ryan Nielsen has been coaching since 2002 and has been the New Orleans Saints defensive line coach since 2017.
LB Coach: Michael Hodges - Michael Hodges has been with the New Orleans Saints since 2017 and has been the team's linebackers coach since 2020.
Secondary Coach: Kris Richard - Kris Richard will be new to the New Orleans Saints coaching staff in 2021. He's been coaching since 2008, notably spending time at the NFL level with the Seattle Seahawks (2010-2017) and Dallas Cowboys (2018-2019). He also has defensive coordinator experience for the Seattle Seahawks (2015-2017).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, Tennessee Titans
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC West: Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos
AFC East: New England Patriots, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Buffalo Bills
NFC South: Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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