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We have a 13-game slate on tap tonight. It's quite a monster slate when breaking it all down. There are four pitchers over $9,000, with a couple of ok options in the mid-price range, and the punts are not the most appealing. With the lack of pitching depth, there are bats for days. There are many nice spots to stack and some nice value at more than just the outfield tonight. Make sure to listen to MLB DFS Quick Hits for the full slate breakdown, all the plays, and strategy to build your winning DraftKings lineups.
The slate starts up top at pitching and targets between Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito, and Cristian Javier. All are in play, and it depends on what ownership or leverage angle you are looking to play. After deciding on pitching and possibly punting on the mound, it's all about the bats. There are a handful of totals over nine, and we should see a lot of great scoring environments to target. With the value, it will be rather easy to pay up for pitching tonight. This article highlights a few of the not-so-obvious/value plays on tonight's slate. Quick Hits goes through all the plays and ways to build lineups for tonight's 13 game slate.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings on 4/27/2021. The lineup will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also check out today's FanDuel MLB DFS lineup picks and read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports too. It’s also important to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, contact me on Twitter @bdentrek.
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DraftKings DFS Starting Pitchers
Lucas Giolito - P, CWS vs DET ($9,500)
Giolito is coming off an early start on Patriot Day that he would love to forget. Heck, his fantasy owners would love to forget. Giolito pitched into the second innings but did not record an out. His final stat line was terrible, allowing seven earned runs, zero strikeouts, and -17.8 DK points. What better way to get back on track than face the Tigers. The Tigers just made Brad Keller look good on Monday, so we are looking for Giolito to bounce back in a big way. Before the Patriot Day disaster, Giolito had a 38.2% K% through the first three games while allowing a 35.1% hard-hit rate. This Tiger's team will help as they are striking out 27.4% of the time versus RHP with a .213 average and an 86 wRC+. Let's hope many are scared off of Giolito, and we can enjoy a lower-owned Giolito in one of the best get right matchups in baseball.
Cristian Javier - P, HOU vs SEA ($9,400)
Javier may be the forgotten arm in the $9,000+ range, and that sounds great to me. Scherzer, Buehler, and Giolito are all strong plays, but a low-owned Javier against the Mariners is outstanding, especially for tournaments. Javier has made two starts so far this season, throwing five innings in each start without allowing a run. More impressively, Javier has the strikeout game working with seven and nine strikeouts in the two games and has racked up 26.3 and 30.3 DK points. He will take his 5% barrel rate into action against the Mariners, who have struck out nearly 26% of the time with a .224 average and 98 wRC+ versus RHP this season. Javier is in a great spot tonight to rack up more strikeouts and another 20+, hopefully, 30+ DK points tonight at very low ownership.
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DraftKings DFS Infielders
Buster Posey - C, SF vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez ($4,000)
Posey had a monster Monday night, going 4-5, and was a triple shy of the cycle. He has been having a strong 2021 after missing the 2020 season. He looks more like the MVPosey of previous seasons. Posey has hit safely in 12 of 15 games this season for a .327 average, a .327 ISO, and a 185 wRC+. The power is even back as Posey now has five home runs on the season while striking out only 17.2% of the time. He is locked in, showing in his 9.5% barrel rate and 42.9% hard-hit rate. Tonight he faces Chi Chi Gonzalez, a pitcher we love to attack. Chi Chi has been pretty decent this season, but I am not a believer this will last too long. He is allowing a near 42% hard-hit rate this season, and in past seasons has allowed 1.5 HR/9 or more versus RHH, Look for Posey to stay hot tonight. He was my cash game catcher last night, and he fits that role again tonight, as well as a piece of a nice Giants stack.
Anthony Rizzo - 1B, CHC at Ian Anderson ($3,900)
There are many good 1B options like Freddie Freeman, Yuli Gurriel, and others, but Rizzo's price tag is just disrespectful. Sure, Ian Anderson has been good, actually outstanding this season, but there are flaws. Before his last start versus a struggling Yankees lineup (see Matt Harvey dominance), Anderson allowed seven runs in his previous two starts, including two home runs. Anderson had allowed a 12.2% barrel rate and a 46.3% hard-hit rate over that stretch as well. Lastly, versus LHH this season, a small sample but closing in on the same sample he had in 2020, they are hitting .357 with a .607 SLG, .433 wOBA, and 2.8 HR/9. Enter Anthony Rizzo. The Cubs offense has been heating up of late, and Rizzo has been a part of that as he has hit safely in 10 of his last 12 games. Over that 12 game stretch, he is hitting .325 with a .350 ISO and 196 wRC+. He is only striking out 15.7% of the time while walking 19.6%, which is just crazy. Rizzo is raking, the Cubs are raking, and Rizzo is just too cheap tonight. The Cubs are a sneaky stack, and Rizzo is a great play in that stack or a one-off in tournaments and cash games.
Jake Cronenworth - 2B/SS, SD at Merrill Kelly ($3,500)
Rake has been slumping of late, hitting safely in three of his last nine games, but that will not stop me tonight. Cronenworth's price tag has continued to drop and is now too cheap for the matchup he has tonight. Cronenworth will face off with Kelly tonight, who, let's say, is pitching some nice batting practice this season. Kelly has made four starts this season, allowing at least three runs in each start (18 R in 21 IP), four home runs on the season, and is only striking out 13.7% of the batters he is facing. On tap of that, Kelly is allowing a 10.5% barrel rate and 44.7% hard-hit rate. In 2019 LHH also hit Kelly well, and that has picked up in 2021. So far, LHH is hitting .289 with a .553 SLG with a 51.4% hard-hit rate. The Padres are in a great spot tonight, and Cronenworth should be in line for a nice bounce-back night at a discounted price tag.
Nico Hoerner - 2B/SS, CHC at Ian Anderson ($2,500)
The new Cubs' leadoff, man? Only $2,500? SIGN ME UP!!!! Hoerner had another two hits last night, giving him hits in three of his first five games since getting called up. He has four doubles in this early run and is also walking 22.2% of the time compared to striking out 16.7% of the time. Hoerner is even hitting the ball hard during the small sample with a near 10% barrel rate and a 54.5% hard-hit rate. Hoerner proved he could hit in Spring Training and now has the chance to prove it in season. Look for Hoerner to keep hitting, hopefully leadoff, and enjoy the way too low price versus Anderson tonight.
J.D. Davis - 3B, NYM vs. Garrett Richards ($3,600)
Davis got a late start to the season, but that did not stop him from a slow start. He has hit safely in eight of ten games played, good for a .414 average. He has two home runs over that stretch with a .276 ISO and 223 wRC+. Let's say he is crushing it, but let's look at the quality of contact. Yep, it's awesome with a 26.3% barrel rate and a 52.6% hard-hit rate. Now he gets a matchup with Richards tonight, who has not had the best start to the season. He has not gone past five innings in any start this season. Over the last three starts, Richards has allowed six runs for a 3.68 ERA, but that is also good for a 5.96 FIP and 6.07 xFIP. Richards has had control issues, allowing 11 walks to 10 strikeouts while allowing a near 46% hard-hit rate. Davis has been swinging it well, and I am all about a Mets stack that starts with Davis, Pete Alonso, and Dominic Smith.
DraftKings DFS Outfielders
Adolis Garcia- OF, TEX vs. Jose Quintana ($3,900)
What a start to the season for Garcia, who has hit safely in 10 of 13 games. He has five home runs over that start with a .346 ISO and 158 wRC+. When Garcia has made contact, it has been quite loud, with a 22.9% barrel rate and 45.7% hard-hit rate. He'll face Quintana tonight, who is coming off an outing where he fared well against the Rangers, thanks to their love of strikeouts, but it has not been all roses for Quintana. He has walked three or more in every start, and before his last start, he allowed 11 runs over five innings. As a whole, this year, Quintana is allowing a 7.7% barrel rate and 46.2% hard-hit rate. It is early, but RHH is hitting Quintana hard, just like 2019. They are hitting .333 with a .380 wOBA. Garcia is strictly a tournament play and makes for an interesting piece of a potential Rangers stack.
Justin Upton - OF, LAA at Mike Foltynewicz ($3,500)
Upton is having quite the comeback season and brings a 10 game hitting streak into action tonight. He is only hitting .282 over that stretch but has four home runs and is averaging nearly 10 DK points per game over that stretch. Upton has put a .333 ISO with a 167 wRC+ over the 10 game stretch, and the quality of contact is off the chart as well with a 15.4% barrel rate and 57.7% hard-hit rate. He gets a great matchup versus Folty tonight to top things off. Folty has allowed three or more runs in four of five starts this season. More importantly, is the fact Folty is giving up the long ball once again with at least one home run in each start and a total of eight home runs in 22 innings pitched. Folty is allowing a 14.5% barrel rate and 50% hard-hit rate to start the season. Load up on your Angels bats once again (Shohei Ohtani is too cheap at $4300) and get Upton in your cash lineups as well.
Kole Calhoun - OF, AZ vs. Chris Paddack ($2,800)
I mentioned a lot of value on this slate, and Calhoun marks one of the best values, especially in tournaments. Calhoun started the year on the IL with a knee injury but returned on April 12 and is now hitting his stride. he has hit safely in eight of his last 10 games for a .343 average. Calhoun has four XBH, including two home runs over this stretch with a nice .229 ISO. We usually roster Calhoun for his power upside, and the power is there, aided by a 12% barrel rate and 60% hard-hit rate. The DBacks continue to bat Calhoun second, locking him into daily cash consideration and a part of sneaky hot DBacks stacks. They face Paddack tonight, which I love to fade. Paddack has allowed at least three runs per start this season. Last season Paddack struggled versus LHH, allowing lefties to hit .270 with a .435 SLG and 2.3 HR/9. I love the Calhoun value, I love stacking the DBacks versus Paddack, and I love how those two things work so well together tonight.
Remember, there are a lot of players in play tonight, especially in the outfield. Listen in to Quick Hits to get all the plays and stacks for tonight's action.
DraftKings DFS Stacks
- Los Angeles Angels (Mike Foltynewicz, RHP)
- Atlanta Braves (Trevor Williams, RHP)
- San Francisco Giants (Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP)
- San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks Game Stack (Chris Paddack, RHP at Merrill Kelly, RHP)
- Sneaky Stack- Baltimore Orioles (Corey Kluber, RHP)
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