2021 Keeper Value Rankings - Third Base

3 years ago by JB Branson

Many many years ago, I noticed the managers in my long-time keeper league were consistently making terrible keeper decisions year after year. Instead of taking their money every year thought I would help them out and find a good set of Keeper League Rankings to share with them. What I found was quite disturbing.

There appeared to be two types of Keeper Rankings available in the industry: Type A is just the site's normal rankings with younger players boosted. These types of rankings only benefit leagues where all Keepers carry the same cost or no cost, such as Rounds 1-4 for everyone's keepers. I also found a Type B that I have no explanation on how any human could ever perceive to be useful in any type of fantasy format. So instead of pulling a rankings list for them, I sat down on Excel for a good month and the Keeper Value Formula was born.

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values." In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants." The Keeper Values are derived from my Keeper Valuation Formula which accounts for age, player cost (ADP), remaining player pool, past performance, future projections, missed playing time, and even position scarcity.

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JB's Keeper Value System

The final product is a quantitative depiction of a player's ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners' needs based on the cost they paid for the player in the previous season (2020 ADP) and will subsequently pay for in the current season's draft (2021). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this value-based attitude will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a keeper league.

Whereas the main purpose of the Keeper Value Formula is for customization based on specific leagues and keeper costs, I create these yearly rankings with standard 12 team league data, 2020 ADP, and 23rd Round cost for UDFA just as a baseline to help managers get an idea of their options. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB to check out your specific league's values.

TIER	SCORE	DESCRIPTION
1	>100	Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT at all costs.
2	75-99	Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept.
3	50-74	You are gaining good value with these players. The majority of good keeper options tend to fall into this category.
4	25-49	Minimal value. The value exists, but not as much as your opponents are likely receiving with their selections. Consider if your options are limited.
5	0-24	Break-even point. Keeping these players will likely hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding enough value. The idea is if you don't use a keeper selection here you can likely still draft that player in the vicinity of their 2020 cost.
6	<0	The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away.

2021 Third Base Keeper Value Rankings

POS Rank	Keeper Tier	Player		Cost ('20 ADP)	Keeper Score
1	2	Manny Machado	SDP	5	87.20
2	3	Jose Ramirez	CLE	2	70.77
3	3	Alec Bohm	PHI	23	68.03
4	3	Cavan Biggio	TOR	12	58.94
5	3	Ke'Bryan Hayes	PIT	23	54.84
6	4	DJ LeMahieu	NYY	5	49.81
7	4	Eugenio Suarez	CIN	7	39.76
8	4	Austin Riley	ATL	23	35.51
9	4	Gio Urshela	NYY	18	35.49
10	4	Brian Anderson	MIA	23	31.05
11	4	Kyle Seager	SEA	23	25.65
12	5	Andres Gimenez	CLE	23	22.19
13	5	David Fletcher	LAA	21	17.49
14	5	Jeimer Candelario	DET	23	16.53
15	5	Rafael Devers	BOS	3	14.09
16	5	Willi Castro	DET	23	10.20
17	5	Jean Segura	PHI	16	2.00

Tier Two

The quest for our first Tier One score continues. Just like their first and second base counterparts, no Third Basemen scored in the top tier, so we begin with tier two.

After a bit of a disappointing fantasy season in year one of a massive contract with the Padres, it was nice to see to Manny Machado bounce alllllll the way back in 2020. Across 254 PA he slashed .304/.370/.580 with 16 dingers and six steals for Slam Diego. Here is a quick recap: career-high BB% paired with a career-low K%, top 10% in xBA and xSLG, more SB attempts than the full 2019 season, and in the heart of just an absolutely loaded offense. Sounds like one hell of a fifth-round keeper selection.

Tier Three

Over the last five seasons, Jose Ramirez has averaged 90 R, 25 HR, 85 RBI, and 23 SB per 600 PA - plus the guy has a career .281 BA. He is a sure-fire five-category anchor that has no rival atop the third base rankings. I don't expect any drastic changes due to Francisco Lindor's departure, as Eddie Rosario and Franmil Reyes will create plenty of run-scoring opportunities for Jo-Ram. The fact that he earns a high tier-three keeper score despite a second-round cost tells proves Ramirez is a must-keep at just about any cost.

In his first taste of the big leagues, Alec Bohm boasted a .338/.400/.481 slash across 180 PAs. Sporting a batted ball profile similar to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. he showed he is a polished hitter, but has plenty of room for improvement in the LA department. You won't get D.J. LeMahieu-level production, as the .410 BABIP will not sustain over a full season, but hitting near the top of the Phillies lineup and projecting for 19 HR and .280 BA carries plenty of potential value for 2021 and at just 24 years old he's a guy you will want to keep around for years to come.

The good news for Cavan Biggio is the Blue Jays lineup will score plenty of runs this season after adding George Springer and Marcus Semien to an already dangerous group, and above all else, Biggio can get on base and run. The bad news is he will likely never hit for average, the power looks average at best, and he could find himself hitting sixth or seventh in the stacked lineup. The 2020 helium probably forced some higher keeper costs than we'd like, but you can certainly do worse than a 25-year-old with decent speed/pop and multi-position eligibility at around a 12th round cost.

Ke'Bryan Hayes only has 95 big league PA to his name, but they were one hell of a sample. He hit five bombs with an impressive .376 after joining the Pirates in 2020. He has never hit more than 10 HR in a minor league season, but obviously the power is maturing based on his 55.4 Hard Hit% and 92.8 EV. I wouldn't expect more than 15-17 HR in 2021, but the BA won't hurt you and he should push for double-digit steals. Like Bohm, Hayes is a guy you want to keep under your fantasy team control for the future, especially if it's at a late-round cost.

Tier Four

There was a lot of hesitation with LeMahieu early this draft season due to the possibility of him not calling Yankee Stadium home. But fear not, because he is returning to the Bronx for the next six seasons. The 2020 batting champ returning near the top of the Bombers' lineup smacking oppo line-drives into the short porch in right field lines up another outstanding fantasy season for DJL. If you prefer more pop from your first baseman, that is fine, but good luck finding a better BA base. It all comes down to your planned roster construction plans. If you expect to make up power with your other keepers, and especially if your league allows the multi-position eligibility, don't pass on DJ for some extra HR.

After hitting the second-most HR in the league with a .271 BA in 2019, Eugenio Suarez fell down to just two points above the Mendoza line in 2020. But considering he had shoulder surgery in January before the season, the lack of a true build-up, and the small sample just toss him into the 2020 stats shredder. The promising news is the Statcast numbers were all almost identical to 2019 and he even increased his hard hit rate. The .214 BABIP, a stat that had been fairly consistent for Suarez was literally 90 points below his previous career-low. Now more than a year removed from the shoulder procedure, I expect the line drives to come back which will lift the BA towards his .261 career average accompanied with plenty of GABP power.

Austin Riley thankfully took a step forward with his plate discipline in 2020. He increased his walk rate by two points, and cut his strikeouts by a massive 13%. The more conservative approach which saw fewer swings and more contact also greatly reduced the flyballs. So while I don't think we can pencil in 30 HR like most thought after his rookie 2019 season, Riley can still be a big late-round RBI boost hitting seventh in a loaded Braves lineup in 2021 and a solid fantasy third baseman for the future on your keeper teams.

Gio Urshela looks like the second coming of Justin Turner, but in a better stadium. He hits the ball hard, hits for a great average, draws walks, and should knock in plenty of runs in a stacked lineup. The only downside is the lineup is so stacked that a great hitter like Urshela is more than likely going to be hitting at the very bottom. But I don't expect that to stick for long after 2021 so it would be wise to keep him around if the price is right.

If you like peak “boring-yet-solid,” allow me to introduce BrIan Anderson. That's not completely true, he did hit 11 bombs in 59 games last season. But the expected stats were much lower than 2019 when he hit just 20 HR with a .261 BA. His biggest asset in fantasy is hitting in the heart of the Marlins lineup, which at the least should produce valuable RBI.

Despite falling into the shadow of his World Series MVP brother, Kyle Seager quietly had quite the 2020 season hitting nine homers with five steals for the Mariners. Despite only a 60 game sample, the five SB were Seager's most since 2015. He enjoyed a career-high barrel% but even more impressive was his personal best 0.97 BB/K ratio. Unfortunately, the BABIP dropped for the fourth straight year so the BA continues to be a drag but at his cost, there is little risk to see if the line drive rate can get back to his career average while keeping up this new-found plate discipline. By season's end, the Mariners could be an offense you wish you had a piece of in fantasy, and their veteran clean-up hitter is a late-round exposure piece. At 33 years old, however, Seager is more of an emergency keeper selection after a team went into win-now mode for 2020 and shipped off all their young 'ens.

Tier Five

I truly believe my fellow colleagues are too low on Andres Gimenez, which is keeping his keeper score at least one tier too low. But I guess we have only seen 135 MLB PA from the 22-year-old, so maybe I'm too high on the potential. In 2018 he stole 38 bases in 122 minor league games, and looks to be on track to be the starting shortstop for the Indians after the Francisco Lindor trade. The power is very light, but at least he gets the Lefties in Cleveland boost. ATC projects Gimenez with 21 SB over 421 PA in 2021. If he does in fact win the starting job I think we see the steals well north of that.

David Fletcher did exactly what we expected him to do in 2020 - score runs (31) and hit for a high BA (.319). The 26-year-old utilityman now has 1190 PA under his belt and has amassed just 10 HR and 12 SB along the way, but the .292 BA is fun. He should be leading off for the Halos again this year, which honestly means Fletcher could be top five in the league in runs scored. He doesn't strike out, his sprint speed is decent, and he's eligible at three infield positions. Two elite categories with multi-position eligibility with what should be a late keeper cost, you won't be excited but you won't be let down either.

If cheap cleanup hitters are your thing, Jeimer Candelario will get as much playing time as he can handle for the Tigers. If 2020's sample can qualify as such, the 27-year-old switch-hitter had a breakout season hitting .297/.369/.503 with a modest seven dongs. He enjoyed increases in barrel%, EV, and hard hit rate while boasting a career-high 25.9 line drive percentage. He will hit for a higher BA than what the projections systems forecast, and while hitting behind Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera doesn't have the allure it once had, Candelario should have no trouble returning value as a late-round keeper - despite being able to draft him in the late rounds anyways.

If you want the highest upside of this group, it obviously belongs to Rafael Devers who just turned 24 despite having 1680 big league PA under his belt. It was a weird-down year for all the Red Sox to some extent and you could tell the hitters were trying to do too much possibly to make up for the Mookie Betts-shaped hole in the lineup. But with Alex Cora back and a full "normal" season on deck we expect the offense to be firing on all cylinders in 2021. Based on his Statcast numbers and the awe one feels when watching his home run hits, the 32 HR from 2019 feels like it could just be the starting point for this season's projections. Sandwiched between Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, Raffy Big Scoops will once again be near the top of the league in R+RBI. It's a really tough keeper decision for 2021 since the hype was so high in 2020 which drove the cost up - but he's one of those guys that you afford to take a small return in value just to ensure you have him on your rosters for the future.

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