RADIO
Oh, when will I learn Liiv Sandbox stinks, and they let me down again I ruined a perfectly good HLE/V5 line with SBG one-off. KT bounced back in a big way, and EDG pulled the welcome mat out from under FPX. V5 ended the Trigger experiment almost before it started, and I'm okay with it. Narrow miss for me, but we're on to tonight.
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I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL & LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Sunday, January 17th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
3:00 AM Nongshim RedForce (+650) vs. Damwon Kia (-1600)
It's Damwon versus Baby Damwon, okay, so it's only me who calls them that but still. Nongshim scraped by Liiv Sandbox, who can't figure out what to do with a lead for anything. Damwon must be letting all that Kia money go to their heads, as they were dead in the water until a slip by Elim let them back into the T1 game. They showed they still have the world championship pedigree with that comeback.
We saw this matchup in the KeSPA cup finals, and DWG rolled NSRF 3-0. Will we get a repeat performance from the champions here? Or will they have a let down after an emotional win against a team that has been waiting since Thursday to take a shot at the champs? If you want to play that angle, I get it, but I have a tough time going against DWG. I'm more of the mind that the close game wakes them up, and they get back on track with a convincing win.
Canyon is still the king of the Jungle in the LCK, and he has stronger lanes to work around and help give him the edge versus Peanut. Showmaker, in particular, will have a great matchup into the rookie Bay. Both in league play and at the KeSPA Cup, Showmaker has over a cspm advantage over his lane opponent. He is also a focal point for the team and gets over a quarter of all the team's gold. Rich has some big misplays in the match with Liiv, and Khan looked good in returning to the LCK. While I have high hopes for Deokdam and Kellin, I don't think they're at the Ghost and Beryl level.
Top DWG Plays
- Canyon - JNG - Led the team in KP% at world's last year.
- Showmaker - MID - IGreat matchup versus rookie Bay.
- Ghost - ADC - Led the team in KP% at KeSPA second in KS% to Canyon.
- Beryl - SUP - Ideally spend his night roaming free with Canyon.
7:00 AM: Afreeca (-215) vs. Fredit Brion (+155)
Week one, second game for both teams, and already we have the LCK toilet bowl in the making. I was a bit on tilt in chat the other day when I said that AFS is the second-worst team in the LCK, and then they promptly went out and lost to DRX, severely strengthing my case. I'm also on record as stating that this FB squad has all the makings of an academy team. Who stinks worse? Round one, Ready? FIGHT!
Hena and Delight (formerly Crescent as some of us found out late one night on Twitter - Poppin Fresh) form a promising bot lane duo, and I think they might have the upper hand in the matchup with Bang and Lehends. They should be out collecting social security checks instead of starting in a major region. The rest of the map belongs to AFS. Afreeca was up early in two of their three games versus DRX, which has a lot to do with the opposition's quality. Brion got run by Gen G in expected fashion, and I expect AFS to lead in this one early. Whether they can convert that into a win is the question.
These bottom tier LCK matchups are a nightmare to pick, and both of these teams were slow at the KeSPA Cup and in their opening matchups at the LCK level. I do not expect a sweep here for either side, and I do think AFS wins. With the stronger top half of the map, they should open these games ahead, gaining access to the rift herald quickly. They can then use that to continue the snowball by taking down the first turret and opening up the map. Bang and Lehehnds can stay safe farming and creating a late-game insurance policy.
With this being the late game, the slow match, and a close contest between bad teams, I expect the best part about owning one of these two will be the ownership percentage. I would guess we'll see AFS under around 10% as a cheap favorite and Brion under 5% as a close dog. You can play either side, and I prefer small stacks with the top half of the map for AFS or the bot duo for Brion. Otherwise, I, like many others, will avoid this one.
Top AFS Plays:
- Dread - JNG - He can carry, and if he's up early, he will, and led the team in kill share versus DRX.
- Kiin - TOP - 1 match sample, but leads the LCK tops in kill participation.
- Fly - MID - There is a risk they sub in Keine, but I'm confident he stays. 80% kill participation versus DRX means he wasn't the problem.
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LPL Matches
4:00 AM: LNG (-550) vs. TT (+330)
LNG shook things up the other night with a big win over IG, and thanks to that, their betting line has skyrocketed. I'm sure their dfs ownership will as well. TT opened with a predictable sad performance in a loss to RNG. Both teams have had plenty of time to prepare for this one as the LNG/IG match was Wednesday morning, and TT/RNG was Monday. If this was closer to the LNG upset, then I think we'd have a case for TT to turn the tables and upset LNG in turn.
Icon was brilliant in claiming his first win over Rookie since 2017. Lwandy, too, had some standout plays, especially in game two, which looked like an IG win in the making until his Alistar went for a hike. Chelizi got run out of the top lane, and Xiaohu's Camile went off in game one. Early game and rushing mythic items has been the order of the day, and it's led to lots of upsets as teams start or draft poorly. LNG did IG dirty in the early game averaging 2400 gold leads at fifteen minutes, and RNG did the same to TT. It's hard not to see this going the same way.
You can see the angle that LNG has a let down after their big win over IG; after the way this season has started, I'm inclined to believe you. I'm just not doing it. LNG has reportedly been doing very well in scrims; add that I think Tarzan gaps Bless hard, I see an LNG sweep. I also like the pace we've seen from both teams thus far.
Top LNG Plays:
- Tarzan - JNG - Didn't have a great fantasy game against IG, but I expect him to pick it up here.
- Icon - MID - 86% KP and 39% kill share versus Invictus. SAY LESS.
- Light - ADC - 80 and 33, so not quite Icon levels, but the numbers are there, plus SamD/Teen duo doesn't inspire fear.
- Lwandy - SUP - Saved the series for them and was goated on the cow sticks with immaculate Alistar play.
6:00 AM: IG (-140) vs. WE (+105)
IG good = fade, IG bad =play, and that sounds about right. Just when you start believing, they dump you; IG has been curving us since 2019 spring. WE slinked by V5 on the back of some clutch throws around objective fights. WE have slowed their breakneck pace from last year a bit, which's a good thing for them in the long run. They are attempting to play a smarter game that doesn't devolve into constant fighting, and that's sub-optimal for our needs. However, IG knows no such restraints, and I expect the winner of these games to approach 20 kills in each.
The teams have split their series each of the last two years, with IG winning in spring and WE in the summer. So will this one follow suit or not? I'll make an argument for each side. DFS wise IG is a cheap favorite that often draws ownership on name value alone, and WE is a fave because of their wild games and fantasy success last year. This match will be the most popular game of the slate, and I think WE will outdraw IG in ownership just slightly. IG burned everyone last time out; the vegas line had moved WE to 48.8% implied win odds from opening at 35%, and at a discount, people can load up on DWG or LNG plays.
If we win, it will be much like the LNG victory with jungle bans and Beishang taking it to Xun in the matchup. You all know I love BAE and consider him one of the top junglers in the league, so I can see him abusing the youngster. Shanks has quickly proven to be an upgrade over Teacherma, and while WE lost the element of surprise with Teach's goofy picks, they have gained a competent mid laner on control mages and other meta picks. Juimeng and Missing have been good in the bot lane, and if Juimeng especially can control his aggression, they can win the matchup. Breathe will just need to int less than theshy, last time these two faced off, he had an eight death game on Jayce.
IG needs to get Rookie and theshy going early as they did versus JDG. Xun should be shadowing mid-lane, and once he and Rookie secure the lead, there expand it to other lanes. Specifically top as Breathe has shown to be volatile as theshy himself. If he gets camped, he can crumble handing the game to IG. Optimally Bao can roam, and Wink can play it safe. He's always been better on more utility adcs, and I'd look for him to play Ezreal or Jhin using their ultimates to zone the enemies rather than being the main damage dealer.
I have a slight lean to IG here, but that's more of a feeling in reaction to them liking to be oppo public opinion. The WE side of the match will be easier to click in and likely easier to accomplish with Bae>Xun in the jungle matchup. Xun was fine on Graves last year, and although he looked rough versus LNG, he should be able to prove he belongs in the LPL. WE still probably ban his Nidalee. I think swapping to something like Kindred would help an IG team looking to outplay their opponents in team fights. True coinflip, but if everyone is off IG, I want back on.
Top IG Plays:
- Rookie - MID - Still the engine that drives the team
- Xun - JNG - second to Rookie in KP% and first on the team in kill share. He will be spending plenty of time mid.
- Baolan - SUP - Just don't feed, and then theshy won't have to shove you in post-game, but I don't know where he gets off.
- Theshy - TOP - Yes, I know he sucks, but 2018-19 exist, so I'll always have hope. Put up 80 DKP versus Breathe in summer 2020.
Top WE plays:
- Juimeng - ADC - WE sets him up for success, and he leads the team this young season in KP% and KS%.
- Beishang - JNG - Good matchup versus Xun and is the leading facilitator on the squad.
- Breathe - TOP - The big question is who cracks first him or theshy. He's second on the team in kill share, and if he can outplay early theshy WILL int.
- Missing - SUP - Always at or near the team lead in KP%, slow start this year, but with engaged supports in meta, he should recover.
Summary
- TLDR : DWG 2-0, AFS 2-1, LNG 2-0, IG 2-1. WE is probably your best bet for a dog team, unless you believe my exhausted, emotional DWG theory. Some people are also expecting a let down from LNG after a big win over IG, but TT is terrible. Speaking of bad... the LCK toilet bowl figures to be a snoozefest.
- I like Damwon, and Nongshim is a good matchup for them as they are one of the other highest paced teams in the LCK. The trouble is they are the most expensive team on the slate, and while they have the best odds to win, I don't know if they can pay off these prices.
- AFS/FB is another like AFS/DRX from the other night that will remain an ownership/value type of play for me. As the late LCK game, we won't have starters pre lock, and that alone will scare people off—factor in the close match between two bad teams that promise to be slow and viola low ownership.
- Again both LPL games could pop off and be slate breakers, and if I didn't hate game stacks, I'd almost think about it on the IG/WE match. That one could get sloppy.
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