RADIO
Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings lineup picks for KeSPA Cup on 12/23/20. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! The League of Legends pre-season is upon us, and we here at Rotoballer have got you covered. Group B gave us a wild ride last night as we guessed there were swaps and danger everywhere. HLE faltered as a team with DRX roots would. Brion stood up, nearly going 2-0, but instead, KT took the 2-0. It was more of a pair of 1-0s as only the rookie ADC Noah played in both matches for the squad, with everyone else swapping out around him. T1 Academy disappointed, and Gen G academy limped me into the green with a 1-0.
We're going to get our second look at these Group A teams today, and we are going to apply all that we learned on day one. DWG can't lose, AFS can't win, RedForce is everything I wanted them to be, DRX stinks except for Pyosik, and Liiv is also here. LOL, I do like to have some fun sometimes.
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the KeSPA Cup 2020 slate on DraftKings that lock at 1:00 AM ET on Wednesday, December 23rd, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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Afreeca Freecs
Oh my, Afreeca, what a poor showing on day one, and I still think this team is better than they showed. Unfortunately for them, they face DWG and NSRF on Wednesday. The best possible outcome for AFS is 1-1 for my money. After Damwon showed us, they haven't missed a beat; it's beyond challenging to give AFS a win there. Against Nongshim RedForce, they are live, but given their slower gameplay style, I find it hard to believe that they will be optimal.
Afreeca was up early versus Liiv, but a series of blunders around the rift herald and a clutch Baron steal by Croco led to the win for SBG. The match versus DRX was also AFS favored for nearly 28 minutes until another monster objective blunder led to a DRX ace after AFS picked up the infernal soul. The final nail in the AFS coffin was a protracted Elder fight that resulted in a steal for Pyosik and the game for DRX.
The inconsistency AFS showed around the objectives has me worried for today's matches, but not so much for the long term. Communication is a very solvable issue, and I still look at them as a playoff level team in the LCK. I will give them the old DFS catch-all and go with deep GPP game theory type of play. DK did us a favor and priced them way down to fit well with anyone if you do some bargain shopping, and after letting us all down on Monday, they should fall into the Brion level of sub 10% ownership.
Top AFS Plays:
- Dread - JNG
- Bang - ADC
- Kiin - TOP
Damwon Gaming
Damwon what can we say? Welcome back, boys; it's like you never left. Khan integrated nicely into the lineup, and Canyon killed it. They will step up their level of competition today with matches versus Liiv and AFS. I don't think that anyone is concerned about that. DWG proved they were world-class last year, and they have done nothing to disprove that so far on day one.
Damwon will be the basis of everyone's lineups in every format on Wednesday. You can't fault anyone for that line of thinking either. Fade this team at your own risk, but we may have to get creative with our setups. Using Khan or Beryl as captain may be necessary, or fading Showmaker or Ghost could be the play. Damwon finished with a 2.42 team KDA on 46 total kills on day one, 13 more kills than any other team after the initial two games. Even if they go 1-1 somehow with the pace they play at I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the winning lineup still.
Top DWG Plays:
- Canyon - JNG
- ShowMaker - MID
- Ghost - ADC
- Beryl - SUP
- Khan - TOP
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DRX
DRX surprised us by stealing that win out from under AFS nose, but DWG thoroughly trounced them. They were hit and miss in the draft phase but could be the dark horse to go 2-0 today as they don't face DWG. They'll play Liiv and RedForce today, meaning it won't be easy as I'd rate both of those teams better on paper, but it is certainly possible.
More good DRX news is their prices are still low, and their ownership should be soft as well. I'd peg them around Gen G levels from yesterday, 15-20%. They are one of two teams that don't play DWG, and the pricing fits well with DRX. So while no one is excited about this iteration of DRX, we're all excited enough about DWG that we're ready to do just about anything to get to them. DRX also has only one possibility of swapping, and that's in the top lane. I don't see them messing with Kingen, but teams are auditioning for the season and looking at their options, as we saw today.
Jungle meta is still a thing, as we have seen from these two days of gameplay, and luckily for DRX, that happens to be where their best position player is. Pyosik can hang with Peanut and Croco; therefore, DRX can hang with RF and Liiv. Nongshim and Liiv have the first and third highest pace after a day, so I also like DRX's opponents in that regard.
DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG
- BAO - ADC
- Kingen - TOP - some sub risk
Liiv Sandbox
Sandbox Gaming was a bit of a surprise upending AFS on Monday, but they ended up going 1-1 on the day. With DWG looming in the opener, they are staring at another day where 1-1 is the best possible outcome. The good news is that the second match is against DRX, and their pricing could be optimal even at 1-1.
Croco looked much improved from last year's KeSPA Cup in game one but came back to earth a bit in the second game. Effort has some chemistry with Leo from their time together on T1; those two factors helped Liiv get our hopes up until they self-destructed a bit versus NSRF. SBG has the third-highest pace in the tournament, and they play the second and fourth highest teams. They can be today's Nongshim scoring well in a loss to DWG, beating DRX handily while being dirt cheap, and getting Canyon or Showmaker into the Captain slot.
Top Liiv Plays:
- Croco - JNG
- Fate - MID
- Summit - TOP
Nongshim RedForce
RedForce was my dark horse on Monday, and even at 1-1, they ended up being optimal with DWG. I fully expect them to be chalky as people look for them to repeat their day one performance. They face AFS and DRX, which gives them a better chance than Monday to go 2-0, as they won't see DWG. DK, too, has figured this out and priced NS appropriately as the second-highest on the slate.
Nongshim did well to stay close to DWG after a fight bot went awry; they didn't allow the lead to balloon out of control. That bot fight did go poorly due to a badly misplayed teleport from BAY, one of several on the day. I like Nongshim in the long term, and I like them today, but I want to pump the brakes a bit as they are still a new team with some communication issues. They will also be quite highly owned and much more expensive than they were on Monday. They don't play versus DWG, making them an attractive cash option, but keep your options open for GPP.
Top DRX Plays:
- Kellin - SUP (highest KP% on the team by a wide margin Monday)
- Deokdam - ADC
- Peanut - JNG
- Rich - Top
Summary
- TLDR - DWG 2-0 (duh), AFS 0-2 (maybe 1-1), Nongshim RF 2-0 (maybe 1-1), SBG 1-1 (perhaps 0-2), and DRX 0-2 (anything is possible) those are my official predictions for the KeSPA opener.
- Keep in mind everyone, while this is a bit more serious than the NEST tournament that we had some action for, in late November, we are still dealing with a Pre-season tournament. Much like the NBA, NFL, and MLB, we can see stars get subbed out early or not play at all.
- I'm not willing to rule anything out after Tuesday's slate, but do whatever you can to get DWG into your lineups, not that you need me to tell you that. I tried to give you all the reasons that any of these teams are viable for pairing partners today.
- I'm excited to be back with Rotoballer for the upcoming season of League of Legends action, and I look forward to seeing you all out there on the fantasy rift. I've gotten some very nice notes the last two slates, and that means the world to me. All I've ever wanted is to share this game that I love with you all, so thanks for joining me again.
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