RADIO
The phrase “Start your studs” will forever be an axiom in fantasy football. However, there comes a time in every stud or early draft pick's season that you have to consider benching them. You always hope it comes in the middle of the year, but for the guys we’re looking at today, it’s during the playoffs. You drafted these guys to build your fantasy teams around and you’re now getting ready to put them on the bench when your season is on the line.
Last year, we saw some absolutely wild finishes from fantasy players. Players like Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick and New York Jets wide receiver Breshad Perriman finished inside the top-five at their positions. On the flip side, Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson finished outside the top-15 at his position. The “Start your studs” argument would have cost you a fantasy championship.
For today’s exercise, I’m giving you one stud at each of the four main positions that I’m fading for the fantasy playoffs. Each of them is for different reasons. Some have bad matchups. Some have bad utilization. Others just don’t give you the warm fuzzies by putting them in when the games matter the most. Disagree with my choices? Feel free to tell me all about it on my Twitter @GbridgfordNFL.
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QB - Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
This one was tough because I had a couple of players I could have gone with. Ultimately, I’m going with Ryan because of his schedule and injuries around him. Running back Todd Gurley II has been banged up over the last month, and wide receiver Julio Jones is dealing with an injury that’s going to cause him to miss Week 14, possibly longer. Throw in a tough schedule, and there is a strong case for benching Ryan to end this season.
For his career with Julio Jones, Ryan typically sees about a four-point bump with Julio in the lineup. With the team out of playoff contention, Julio could get shut down for the remainder of the year to allow him to fully rest up for the 2021 season. Even if Julio were to come back anytime from Week 15 to the end of the season, the matchups are going to get a lot more difficult for Ryan and the Falcons.
After Week 14 against the Los Angeles Chargers, they’re facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers twice and the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs are really starting to hit their stride now at the end of the year, and the Buccaneers have the defense to match up with what the Falcons want to do well. If you were able to draft a good fill-in quarterback for Ryan, you should be sliding him into the lineup for the next few weeks.
RB - James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
This one is a tough pill to swallow after how good he has been all season, but following Week 14 against the Tennessee Titans, things are going to get really difficult. Typically, fantasy playoffs are going to run to Week 16 and stop. However, if they run to Week 17, it’s even more difficult for Robinson with a road matchup against the Indianapolis Colts. Robinson is RB4 on the year, but you just can’t expect that production with the schedule that’s coming up.
Robinson’s raw volume has allowed him to maintain fantasy value even in difficult matchups, but this is one of the situations where the case can be made that he will not. More than likely, you’re going to ignore me and start him anyway. He’s scored at least 10 PPR points in every game this season, but he’s going up against teams that need to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Plus, if the Jaguars plan to keep him around for next season, they could look to rest him down the stretch.
A three-point drop in production isn’t as dramatic as one might expect against better teams. With quarterback Mike Glennon under center, good defensive coordinators are going to sell out against the run. They’re not going to allow Robinson to beat them by himself. This call is largely based on the teams they’re going to play against. It’s not the safest call with guys like Philadelphia Eagles running back Miles Sanders and Chiefs running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire having a case as well, but Robinson could cool off in a hurry.
WR - DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
This one is out there for some of you, but if you’ve been paying attention, it makes a good bit of sense. Since quarterback Kyler Murray sustained a shoulder injury, Hopkins and the entire offense has regressed. The team has lost three straight games since the last-second win over the Buffalo Bills, and Hopkins just hasn’t been getting the same opportunities he was during the first nine games of the year.
Looking at his last three games compared to the first nine, he’s seen his per game average drop by six points. One major issue with him has been his usage. If you look at his routes run from the last three games, he’s being utilized exclusively on short routes on the left half of the field. That doesn’t appear that it’s going to change for Hopkins, and his matchups aren’t going to make it any easier on him.
In the next four weeks, the Cardinals are matching up with four teams that have a cornerback that can actually match up with Hopkins. He’s about to see Jalen Ramsey, James Bradberry, Richard Sherman, and Darius Slay in consecutive weeks. Between difficult matchups and lackluster usage, the case is definitely there for you to look for alternative options over the final month of the season.
TE - T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
The schedule is getting tough for Hockenson at a bad time. He’s going up against the Green Bay Packers, Tennessee Titans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and Minnesota Vikings right when you need him most. Unlike other positions, it’s a little easier to stream tight ends. You’re just looking for someone that’s going to fall into the end zone. Hockenson has been good in the red zone, but he has been somewhat touchdown reliant at times in his career.
In the games he’s scored a touchdown, his PPG more than doubles. That is also elevated by his performance in Week 1 of his rookie season where he scored three touchdowns. Touchdowns are not a sticky stat, especially against a few solid defenses over the next four weeks.
The Lions get to play three of their last four at home, but it’s against four teams that need to win for the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Lions are basically out of the playoffs at this point. With injuries all over the offensive side of the ball, Hockenson is one of the few weapons remaining. You’ll probably still be starting him, but if you can find a streamer with a good matchup, let Hockenson find the bench for you.
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