RADIO
After a few slates with some excitement for the underdogs to possibly come through, we've got a really heavy pair of favorites tonight. Again I needed to listen more closely to my own advice as the stacks heavy on TD were the takedown stacks, and I somehow talked myself out of them closer to lock—too much time to think sometimes.
No tinkering tonight were going to set it and forget it! We have two clear favorites and I don't see much of a path to cashing without playing them on this slate. Is that boring? Maybe, but I also prefer winning to losing so sometimes you have to roll with the favorites and figure out a way to be just a little different.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Saturday, August 22nd, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Afreeca Freecs vs. Gen G (-550)
Looking back on the spring split and trying to find some trends we can use for the LCK going back to the online format. For me, one of the biggest things is in playstyle. Teams like Gen G can play a more control style game (you've often heard me say that one day we'd see them win a match with five kills) should flourish with the move back online. They showed us this in the spring split when they won the regular season and earned themselves the number one seed going into playoffs. Gen G needs to win at least a game here to avoid a tiebreak with T1 to hold on to the third seed, while AFS is locked into the fifth slot. Even with the playoff implications minimized, I doubt we see anything in the way of shenanigans with this matchup. Neither of these teams is very fun (think DWG, IG, or G2), plus the Korean attitude towards the game leads me to believe that this game will be played straightforwardly.
So since there should be no funny business in the match, I like Gen G to sweep. AFS has had trouble with the top four in the LCK and is unlikely to want to show anything new here with their playoffs matchup vs. (likely) T1 looming. They will play their best, but a vanilla brand of the league is to be expected. That's not the type of thing to unseat the side of Gen G. So, and I'll take the sweep, which will allow Gen the bye in the first round and lock T1 into the fourth spot. Always hedge is something we've learned the hard way this split, but I don't know if it's worth in this spot. You should be able to get AFS very low owned (10-15% I'd guess), but there won't be much upside there. Normally I'd say to go heavy on Gen G in this spot with AFS giving up a ton of deaths in their losses, but as I expect a very vanilla play style and the next series could be a bit more fun, I'll take my chances loading up on that one instead of sticking with smaller stacks and the team slot here.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Ruler - ADC
- Clid - JNG
- Racal - Top
- Gen G Team
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7:00 AM: KT Rolster vs. Damwon Gaming (-1600)
KT is out of the playoffs, but DWG still needs a series win here to stave off DRX for the one seed. DWG owns the tiebreak via game differential points, but need the series win to avoid getting leapfrogged by DRX. This series could get fun in the second and possibly third games with DWG pulling out some pocket picks or styling on an already eliminated KT who has nothing to lose. Damwon is too good early for KT with their first turret advantage and gold diff stats alone; they have an 86.2% win probability. T1 was able to mitigate the early leads DWG likes to build and keep it competitive into the mid-game, KT will not. I like DWG to sew up game one early then possibly have a wild game two knowing they can fall back on game three to get their win.
Top DWG Plays:
- Showmaker - MID
- Canyon - JNG
- Nuguri - TOP
- Beryl - SUP
- Ghost - ADC
Summary
- TLDR - Gen G and DWG no surprises here, I think we see some excitement from DWG after they win the first game of the series. Not a true fiesta with role swaps and crazy picks, but something near too it. Couple that with a boring first set where both teams won't really want to show much before the playoffs begin, and I think we've got a really straightforward day.
- LCK will continue to contend the rest of their split online only, which I think hurts DWG. As a high skill expression team, they like to take more 50/50 situations and play their way out of them. Any loss of latency and possible lag created by online environments can hinder the split-second timings required to pull off those plays. I don't think it comes into play here, but for the playoffs and the regional finals, we should watch for this.
- This slate is one of the most straight forward in a while, and I don't see a lot of wiggle room. Mixing up your stacks and captains will be the main way to get different on this one. Small stack with the captain spot, or go heavy on Gen G as I suspect that will be the lower owned (very slightly) of the two favs.
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