MLB Betting Picks (7/30/2020) - Moneylines, Totals, and Runlines

The Nats saved the day with four runs in the top of the 10th. Who'd have guessed that being the away team in their own ballpark would be a benefit to them. The Braves got a two-run homer in the third which lost us the F5, while Lucas Giolito and Zach Plesac duked it out in a scoreless game up until the ninth inning.

• Wednesday, July 29: 1-1-1 (-.04 units)
• 2020 Season Total: 4-2-2 (+1.59 units)

We move onto another day and another slate of games in a season clouded by a pandemic that makes everything questionable. I feel obligated to remind you I'm not a professional. For those of you that followed my KBO run, there is a large amount of luck involved in this but my goal is to evaluate the slate and find the right value to make some money.

Myself along with Tommy Bell will be supplying you with analysis, recommendations, picks, and other fun information all season long, and hopefully some money to be made as well! I'll be writing up my picks on Tuesday-Friday, and Tom will take care of the rest of the week. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or just chat in general about baseball. Good luck and play smart!

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds (-134)

O/U: 9

CHC: Yu Darvish, CIN: Luis Castillo

Darvish's ERA was almost two points lower on the road than at home in 2019, and in two starts at Great American Ballpark he had an interesting stat line. Over 11.1 innings there, he had a 20/0 K/BB but six of the nine hits he allowed were doubles or home runs. That's impressive on either side of the spectrum, but his 1.01 WHIP as a visitor is elite. The Cubs lineup is fantastic backup as they've scored at least seven runs in each of the L4 but they hit just .250 against RHP on the road. Regardless, Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rizzo are enough to make any pitcher shake in their cleats a bit.

A Cy Young hopeful, Castillo got his season started off masterfully, holding the Tigers to one run on six hits over six innings, while striking out 11. Sure it was just the Tigers, but he still put on one of the best starts in the short start of the year. His home ballpark is a launch pad but that didn't affect him in 2019, holding down a 3.15 ERA with a .251 wOBA against in 125.2 innings at home. The Cincy lineup got a big boost Wednesday when Mike Moustakas and Nick Senzel were allowed to return to action. They both helped fuel a 12-run outburst. I expect to see more of that this year.

This should be an absolute showdown. Both offenses have weapons galore, but Castillo is one of the brightest arms in the game, while Darvish has shown signs of dominance in this park. Most won't like it, but I see a pitcher's duel.

Pick: Under 9 (-110, Draftkings) 1 Unit

Cleveland Indians (-110) at Minnesota Twins

O/U: 8.5

CLE: Shane Bieber, MIN: Jose Berrios

Biebs has been better on the road over his career, but Target Field has given him some problems. It's a small 21 inning sample size, but he has a 4.71 ERA with a 1.38 WHIP with a more impressive 26/5 K/BB. He had large expectations coming into 2020 but the Twins are going to give him a strong test early on. Offensively, they had scored 18 runs in the three games prior to Wednesday, but they got shutout by the White Sox. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Carlos Santana have a lot of weight to carry, but if they can even get a little help around the rest of the lineup, they present problems.

The Twins got a total team effort Wednesday to win 3-0 but it certainly wasn't the eight runs they averaged coming into the game. Luckily Jose Berrios toes the rubber because the bullpen had to churn our four innings Wednesday. The 26-year-old was decent at home last year with a 3.51 ERA, but a 2.61/.309/.400 opponent slash line is a little worrisome. Nonetheless, he's a steady arm that the Twins will rely on this year. Minnesota's lineup has been the talk of the league early on. No, they won't continue to average eight runs a game, but they are definitely capable of exploding at any given time.

Bieber and Berrios are quality arms but these lineups are intriguing in this spot at hitter friendly Target Field. However, the Twins have a bullpen disadvantage having thrown eight innings in the last two days. I don't see any chance of Cleveland getting shutout two days in a row.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-110, Fanduel) 1 Unit

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