Outfield Waiver Wire Pickups For Week 1

July 20, 2020

Sam Chinitz's fantasy baseball outfielders who are potential waiver wire pickups for Week 1 of the 2020 MLB season. Consider adding and streaming these free agent OF options.

The first week of waiver wire pickups for the 2020 season is here and Opening Day is approaching quickly. Some teams have endured a lengthy period between draft day and the start of the season, making Week 1 waiver pickups unusually important this season.

In the same vein, many of the players worth picking up in Week 1 this season are players who would have been drafted in most leagues had drafts been held closer to the start of the season. With player news being a driving factor for this week’s waiver pickups, expect competition on waivers to be fierce.

Ownership for waiver pickups are based on Yahoo leagues with standard 5x5 scoring, and the ownership cutoff is 50% ownership. With that in mind, here are some Week 1 waiver wire outfield targets. 

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Shallow-League Pickups

Yoenis Cespedes (NYM) - 35% owned

The delayed season has given Cespedes time to get healthy, and the 34-year-old is now healthy enough to DH and play some outfield this season. Between Cespedes’s improved health and the adoption of the universal DH, Cespedes should be a solid asset this year. Despite injuries limiting him to only 119 games over the past two seasons, Cespedes doesn’t appear to have lost a step from a power perspective, with his average exit velocity sitting above 90 MPH and his barrel rate topping 10% in each of the past two years. 

As a result, Cespedes’s OPS hasn’t dipped below .820 since 2014, and he’s posted a combined .869 OPS over the past two seasons. Essentially, Cespedes’s injuries haven’t had too significant of an effect on his on-field performance over the past two years, and there’s little reason to expect this season to be any different. With only 60 games this year and fewer opportunities for injuries while playing DH, Cespedes has a good chance of staying healthy for the entire season. That makes Cespedes an easy 10 home run, .800 OPS hitter in a 60-game season -- a luxury on the waiver wire.

Shogo Akiyama (CIN) - 49% owned

Akiyama is slated to bat leadoff for the Reds most days this year, giving him 35-run upside in a 60 game season. Akiyama boasted an impressive .379 OPS across nine seasons in Japan, and his on-base skills are expected to translate well to the MLB. If Akiyama can post an OBP around .340 with some power mixed in, then he should be a valuable leadoff hitter given the state of the Cincinnati lineup.

The Reds’ revamped 2020 lineup should drive Akiyama home frequently, with three of the next four batters projected for slugging percentages above .500. As long as Akiyama can claim consistent playing time -- which he appears to be mostly in line for already -- Akiyama’s potential combination of a high OBP, double-digit home run potential, and a stacked lineup behind him makes him rosterable in most leagues and worth targeting on the waiver wire.

Avisail Garcia (MIL) - 47% owned

With Ryan Braun likely shifting over to DH, Garcia should be the everyday right fielder for the Brewers this season. Garcia’s production is fueled by strong contact quality highlighted by his career .420 xwOBA on contact, and although his ugly career 17.1% swinging-strike rate will likely keep his strikeout rate from staying much below 25%, Garcia’s free-swinging nature has kept his strikeout rate down to a reasonable 24.8% over the past two seasons.

Garcia’s combination of strong contact quality, impressive power (career 90 MPH average exit velocity), and a serviceable strikeout rate makes him likely to post an OPS around .800 this season. Now that he’s expected to get everyday playing time, Garcia should be owned in most leagues as a result.

Deeper-League Pickups

Aaron Hicks (NYY)  - 9% owned

Hicks’s 9% ownership rate pushes him into deeper league territory, but he’s worth picking up in shallower leagues as well. Hicks has fully recovered from Tommy John surgery thanks to the delayed start to the season, and he’s expected to be the everyday starting center fielder while batting leadoff in the potent Yankee lineup.

Even with a bit of an injury-related down year last season, Hicks has posted a .250/.359/.464 slash line over the past three seasons, and he picked up 13 stolen bases and 30 home runs per 162 games too. That level of production makes Hicks worth an easy top 100 pick in drafts, writing his injury risk aside. Hicks has only played in 284 games over the past three years, so his injury risk isn’t trivial, but he’s far too productive when healthy to leave on waivers. Given that he’s coming into the season at full health and only has to stay healthy for 60 games this year, Hicks should be on waivers only in the very shallowest of leagues.

Jay Bruce (PHI) - 2% owned

The universal DH has allowed Bruce to insert himself into the likely Phillies starting lineup, and Bruce’s still strong power makes him worth picking up in deeper leagues. Bruce only played in 98 games last season, but his 90 MPH average exit velocity and 13.4% barrel rate suggest that he should still be a productive fantasy player.

In addition to seeing a value boost from more consistent playing time, Bruce should benefit from the relatively home run friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park. Bruce’s home park isn’t Coors Field, but it’s a significant step-up from T-Mobile Park and Citi Field, where Bruce played most of his home games since 2016. As a result, a .800 OPS is within reach for Bruce this year, making him worth picking up in deep leagues considering his likely to be starting DH job.

Franchy Cordero (KC) - 3% owned

Cordero should have a fairly easy time claiming the starting center field job with the Royals after being traded to Kansas City last week, making him worth picking up in deeper leagues. Cordero offers an exciting combination of power and speed that make it easy to dream on his potential; over parts of three MLB seasons, Cordero has posted a 92.8 MPH average exit velocity, a .531 xwOBA on contact, and a 29.2 ft/sec sprint speed that ranks among the top 10% of MLB hitters. 

The problem with Cordero -- and what keeps him from being worth picking up in shallow leagues in Week 1 -- is his penchant for strikeouts. Cordero owns a career 38.8% strikeout rate in the major leagues, and his 28% strikeout rate from his last full minor league season in 2017 doesn’t inspire much confidence in that regard. Cordero may make excellent contact, but he’s not Joey Gallo, and the 25-year-old’s likely-to-be-high strikeout rate excludes him from being worth picking up in shallow leagues this week. Still, Cordero boasts .900 OPS upside that makes him worthy of targeting in deep leagues this week. 

Looking Ahead

Gregory Polanco (PIT) - 21% owned

Polanco is currently recovering from Coronavirus and is likely to miss Opening Day as a result, but the 28-year-old should be worth picking up in deep leagues once healthy. Injuries have derailed Polanco’s career, but he’s a 20-home run, 10-steal threat every season with the potential to post an OPS above .750.

That level of production makes Polanco a solid fantasy outfielder when healthy, so his recovery should be monitored by fantasy owners. Polanco’s timeline is extremely unclear -- it’s not known if he’s experiencing symptoms or not -- but he’s been isolating since at least July 13 and could be ready two or three weeks into the season.

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