RADIO
Hey everyone, I'm back to my old wordy self today, and I didn't even have any big-time contrarian picks to try to change your mind. Enjoy the options today as the LCK will be done with week one tomorrow, and we'll be back on LPL only two gamers until Tuesday night. Don't worry though; we'll be here to cook up some spicy takes and tilt the last slate with you like always.
Last night things played out pretty much as I expected, other than OMG scoring well and DMO being totally dominated. They have cemented their status as the worst team in the LPL so far and we should definitely target them going forward even with the lineup changes - they are just bad right now.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Sunday, June 21st, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
LCK Matches
4:00 AM KT Rolster vs. Gen G (-250)
Both of these teams started the split with disappointing losses, but for very different reasons. Yes, KT going down to an expansion team, so to speak is not good, but beyond the opponent (who acquitted themselves well against AFS), the bigger issue was in the way KT played.
They seemed like a team of five randoms that had never played together before, for a team that made no significant changes in the offseason is scary. Gen G was merely disappointing in that we saw Bdd have an off performance, and they lost to a bitter rival. I cant see KT getting it together in time to take out a team of Gen G’s caliber. In the spring, I would have bored you to death with the teams close dragon and herald rates, then countered with Gen G’s better vision and Baron percentages.
I could have seen my way through to a possible KT upset if they won those early fights around drakes and the herald and held that advantage through to counter Gen G’s baron plays. Today, I think we'll be lucky to see them be competitive.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Bdd - MID
- Clid - JNG
- Ruler - ADC
- Gen G Team
7:00 AM: SHO Prince vs. Damwon Gaming (-305)
Usually, when I write up my outlook on the slate, I go down the list, but today I avoided this spot until last. The last series for the side of the former APK Prince squad was technically a success, but I think both of those teams lost in what was surely a fiesta without clowns.
Both HLE and SHOP looked bad, DWG, on the other hand, was very clean in the utter destruction of SBG. I liked the SBG side of that matchup due to course history, and I will refer to that again for this matchup. DWG went 2-0 against them in the spring and didn't drop a game, and they are 8-0 series with a 16-1 game score dating back to 2017 in the challengers league. Most of those don't count for much other than a little fun fact as the team has changed quite a bit since then.
The only real problem is that DWG is the IG of the LCK; I won't believe anything from them until they show it repeatedly. They should win this easily, but there is definitely a world where Ikksu takes Illoai into the top lane to disrupt Nuguri, Mickey delivers a TF game from way back, and Hybrid can expose the weakness of the DWG bot duo. I'll take a few GPP flyers on this SP squad in hopes of jamming in many LPL studs and them paying off though I think DWG win this pretty quickly.
Top DWG Plays:
- Nuguri - TOP
- Ghost - ADC
- Beryl - SUP
- DWG Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Suning (-220) vs. Rogue Warriors
Waiting for these lineups to come out for the LPL write-ups to start has been helping me lately. SNG doesn't have anyone they like to swap, or at least not that they have shown us. RW, on the other hand, are unplayable outside of Zwuji, Ley, and Youdang. Though I think today is the day that Youdang might finally get hooked for Haro.
We have several teams in each league that do this frequently. I, for one, am over it. Continuity is king, and these poor teams that don't understand that are going to continue to lose, continue to swap and continue to be frustrating. That will be their only continuity. We're starting to see teams adapt more against the auto-win condition, Aphelios, which will hurt Suning, but I don't think that RW is the team to figure that out. SNG disappointed me versus EDG last time out, especially in game three, where Haunfeng kept getting caught out.
We know what they want to do, draft Aphelios for Huanfeng, and scale into the late game. Zwuji is a good ADC, and I don't particularly appreciate putting the whole game into a single team fight at 40 minutes. What saves the day for me is the supporting cast on the side of SNG is much better than that on the side of RW. I think Ruby is, not to put too fine a point on it, garbage. The mid jungle duo of Angel and SofM outmatches that of Ruby and Youdang completely. SofM has great vision control, and that is going to lead to superior objective control for the side of SNG.
SNG also starts on the blue side, so they should first pick the Aphelios for Huanfeng, then respond in the draft with a comp to protect and enable him. They will also have superior objective control, and for me, this seems like they come out run game one watch as RW cluelessly swap at least two positions and then capitalize on the lack of consistency and takedown game two. Calling the sweep for SNG here, and I think I will load up on these SNG players as much as I can, with them being the most expensive players on the slate on DK.
Top SNG Plays:
- SofM - JNG
- Huanfeng - ADC
- Swordart - SUP
- Angel - MID
7:00 AM: Invictus (-150) vs. Edward Gaming
Look, I've had it up to here with the same old song and dance from Invictus gaming, but as they don't say in that old movie, "Play it again, Sam." Invictus seems to be back after rolling out a few quick wins over some other sub-par teams, but you can never tell them.
Since 2018, IG has owned EDG winning all five series between the two with a game score of 10-3, but as is always the case with IG, we don't know what to expect. EDG is more a more disciplined, albeit less talented team that is much more straight forward. EDG has a much better first blood percentage and rift herald percentage than does IG, but IG has a way better first turret percentage and a more significant gold differential at 15 minutes.
They have eschewed the herald plays to plant Puff in the bot lane and use that time to drive individual plate gold into their ADC. IG also have started focusing on dragons as they currently sit second in both drake control and drakes at 15, and now average over three per game. Just a bit of discipline and focus on the game are all that is required for IG to be a top tier team in the league and the world.
Ning revealed recently in an interview that after their series with WE that they are starting to play with respect to the meta. This would mean that during their opening two losses, they were literally playing like chickens with their heads cut off. Oh god, so Invictus. Well, with coach Chris in place, it seems they may be heading in the right direction.
So IG is going to try to play normally, and that's good news for everyone. Theshy is still a liability right now, and I would love to know how you can go from being the best top laner on earth to a guy with sub 50% kp and 35% of the team's deaths. Ning is flashing some form in the jungle, and EDG seems undecided as to their best path there right now. Rookie is playing at the same level he did during their 2018 world title run, and that's scary good. In this house, we love and respect Scout, but he is in trouble here.
IG's mid jungle duo is starting to come online again, and maybe just maybe due to the fact they are consistently starting Ning so that he and Rookie can redevelop some chemistry. Meanwhile, in the bot lane, one of the biggest keys to Hope's high spring split was his ability to disengage and keep himself alive through team fights. He has had trouble with that in the summer split thus far and leads the LPL ADCs on this slate in death percentage.
It is now Puff who has displayed a more careful side. All in all, I like the trends I see from IG, and I think they win this series in a likely 2-1. I do like taking some EDG in GPPs on Sunday. We saw against WE that once they lost a tough game one, they imploded game two and fed big time. EDG can play smart and defensive to stymie IG, and that could lead to a similar outcome. If EDG comes out on top, they will be one of the top scorers of the day, so I like to say "in for a penny in for a pound." If you're taking the dogs here, you want to consider full stacking them.
Top IG Plays:
- Rookie - MID
- Ning - JNG
- Puff - ADC
- Southwind - SUP
Top EDG Plays:
- Aodi - TOP
- Hope - ADC
- Meiko - SUP
- Scout - MID
Summary
- Scary for me, but I like all the favorites. On FD I love that SNG is cheaper than they should be, and it will be easier to prioritize them there. On DK I will try to stick with a balanced lineup 3-3 or even a 2-2-2 finding value at each position.
- The DWG/SP match should be the bloodier of the two LCK matches. Those nice prices let you fit some IG and some SNG at premium spots. If I can only pick two, it's going to be Rookie and Haunfeng or SofM.
- IG is cheaper than usual, and I think they will get a lot of ownership, making EDG even more attractive. If only you could count on them sticking with JunJia throughout the whole match. I don't think that's a risk I'm willing to take, but I can see it as a play for the reduced ownership.
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