Early Summer ADP Fallers at Running Back

June 18, 2020

Antonio Losada takes a look at the ADP variation of four running backs from the start of May to the start of June and assesses their fantasy football value at RB in 2020.

We continue looking at ADP risers and fallers as we've done throughout the early portion of the summer with the running back position. We've already gone over risers and fallers at wide receiver, tight end, and quarterback.

Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player in your team.

ADPs are helpful to gauge the average value of players on draft day as viewed by the competition. Now it's time to examine some running backs who have seen their draft stock plummet during the preseason thus far.

Running Backs - ADP Fallers

D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

The novelty bias is present in both Swift and Taylor's (read above) ADP values. Both rookies, who should (and will most probably will) slot as RB2 in their teams (behind Kerryon Johnson and Marlon Mack) have ADPs of 46 and 27 respectively, both over their counterparts (89 for Johnson, 80 for Mack). That, simply put, is stupid. That is also why fantasy GMs are starting to get to their senses and drafting Swift lower each passing day.

A few days ago, Lions' HC Matt Patricia said that Detroit will ride the hot hand at the running back position and go with whoever is feeling it each time and who feels like the best option for each play called. That might help Swift beat Johnson here and there, but that won't be set in stone until we see it happen. Sure, Swift has shown more than enough in college to have him as one of the best (if not the actual best) rusher of his class, but I still think he's an RB3 or FLEX option at best. Not worth his current round-four ADP as I see it, much less with a healthy Kerryon Johnson in tow.

Marlon Mack, Indianapolis Colts

Mack's ADP fall of two-plus rounds makes plenty of sense... and then some. Just check Indy's backfield depth and you'll get why. The Colts will feature Mack as their RB1, followed by rookie (and second-rounder) Jonathan Taylor and also Nyheim Hines mostly in pass-catching duties. The fact that Indianapolis spent the 41st pick on a rusher speaks volumes of the upcoming RBBC approach that the Colts will take this season.

Nobody is trusting Indy's backfield, and the ADP of Mack is a clear indication of the current worries of fantasy GMs. The talent of the Colts tailbacks is undoubted, but the fact that there are multiple bodies to share snaps at a single-man position is definitely working against Indianapolis' rushers this offseason. If Mack's ADP (and Taylor's and Hines' by extension) doesn't keep falling it will make little sense drafting him early.

J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens have one of the most crowded backfields in the league, and to that, you should add the presence of run-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson. There is no doubt Mark Ingram II will be the No. 1 rusher in Baltimore, and that the team will probably showcase an RBBC in 2020 with Dobbins playing second-banana to Ingram. No matter what, novelty bias is again appearing here with Dobbins' ADP of 52 being slightly over Ingram's 54. I guess fantasy GMs just love rookies.

Looking at 2020 projections, it makes no sense to go with Dobbins over Ingram at that position (in fact, it doesn't make much sense drafting any of them that soon). Ingram projects to 193.5 PPR points and Dobbins to 110.9. Their ROI values, though, both fall on the negative side of things as they project to finish the year as the 86th and 174th-best players in football. If you're going for one of those two, make it Ingram, though.

Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers

It is not that dropping four spots in the ADP leaderboards means much, but keep an eye on Mostert going forward. He's already crossed the "positive-ROI threshold" and if his ADP keeps going down he can become some sort of early-pick sleeper and a great value among RBs picked in the first few rounds. Mostert will be the leading rusher of San Francisco while battling Tevin Coleman for touches. That being said, experts expect Mostert to reach 200 carries next season.

Mostert projects as the RB12 of 2020 with 233.3 PPR points over the season, good for 1,100-plus yards and 12 touchdowns. His ADP of 44 virtually matches his overall rank as the projected 43rd-best player of next season. That makes him a true value, even more at the RB position. In fact, other than Alvin Kamara (ADP 5, second-overall rank) he's the only rusher with a positive ROI until Latavius Murray (ADP 122, 114th rank) although Murray just projects to reach 153.9 PPR points. I'd advise picking Mostert in the third or fourth without hesitation. If you can snatch him later, congratulations, you got away with highway robbery.

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