Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: More Insights From an MLB Scout

June 7, 2020

This latest installment of The King's Fantasy Baseball Insider Series features viewpoints from an MLB scout who has covered the NL and AL in the live environment since 1980.

The award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller, this time with more takes from a longtime Major League scout. Every year during fantasy baseball draft season, Scott Engel talks to prime MLB sources to get exclusive nuggets of information. On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, scouts, media members and others close to the game provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott supplies his fantasy baseball viewpoints on the commentaries.

These reports contain viewpoints that you will not find anywhere else, from the most authentic experts on the game: those who play it, have played it, and cover it and work inside the clubhouses. The sources interviewed are all informed that they are being asked questions for fantasy purposes, so they focus on projected player performance and trends that will drive statistical production in their answers.

This latest installment of the Insider Series features more observations of an MLB scout who has covered the National and American Leagues in the live environment since 1980. This is the second installment of his exclusive scouting reports and recommendations on RotoBaller.com. You can read our first session with him here. Projections included have been adjusted to mirror half a season of customary MLB stats.

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Insider Insights on Andrew Benintendi

“I am high on him. He has a good bat and real good clutch numbers. In his career so far, he has hit .378 with two outs and runners in scoring position. He is better vs. right-handed pitchers, and he is not terrible vs. lefties, he gets on base decently. He is also a smart baserunner with above-average speed. Last year he was injured and was engulfed by a malaise that befell the whole team, as the team did not contend and the clubhouse atmosphere was not good. Plus, he also dealt with trade rumors.”

Half-Season Projections from this Insider: .305, 11 HR, 40-plus RBI, and in the neighborhood of 10 steals.

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: This is not the only endorsement I have heard on Benintendi this year, as a current MLB veteran also told me he expected a bounce-back season from him in this recent Insider Report. There was some speculation after last year that Benintendi had added weight and muscle and those factors may have contributed to a disappointing 2019 campaign. He dealt with varied injuries during the year, and as suggested by this insider source, he may have been mentally off his game as well.

In this comprehensive breakdown of Benitendi’s struggles last season by RotoBaller’s Mike Kurland, he highlights some encouraging Statcast data, such as a .461 xSLG that was 30-points higher than his actual SLG. He also posted career highs with an 8.1% barrel-rate barrel rate and 37.7% hard-hit rate. Benintendi also struggled mightily against off-speed pitches, with a .167 BA but his .236 xBA BA vs. off-speed offerings could point to better production in those instances this season. It will simply be on Benintendi to adjust accordingly in such situations.

Benintendi has an ADP of 105, and with pressure on him to put last season behind him and contribute significantly with the departure of Mookie Betts, that is a good draft slot to take the chance that he will rebound. If he stays healthy and has his head cleared mentally, he should push his overall production upwards again and will be a very satisfying all-around fantasy producer.

Insider Insights on Franmil Reyes

“I am not that high on him. But he is in the right spot in the American League as a DH. He tends to have a long swing. He is a sucker for the breaking ball. He will flail at curve balls and sliders. He needs to improve his knowledge of the strike zone. When he makes contact, he hits the ball really hard, but does not make contact often enough. Power wise he could hit 40 homers over a full season of at-bats. He is an Adam Dunn type but ultimately should not strike out as much. He may hit a lot of solo shots, as pitchers will work him more carefully with men on base.

Half-Season Projections from this Insider: .255, 20 homers, 45-plus RBI.

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: If I am not going to go extra heavy on power very early in drafts, I can bolster my power with options such as Reyes a little later. Also, I might rather opt for Reyes at an ADP of 127 over Pete Alonso at 30. I tend to get the most well-rounded players I can in the early rounds and if many of them are not major power producers, then I can start filling in those types of gaps with someone like Reyes. He has struck out 28.3% of the time so far and he can be a drain on your BA (.249 last year) and OBP (.310) in leagues that use the latter stat. Dunn struck out over 30% of the time in his last five seasons and while Reyes is not quite on that level, it is still a concern. The HR/FB rate of 30.6% so far is certainly not sustainable.

Franmil Reyes' Pitch Tracking Via Baseball Savant. As this scout indicates, he often struggled vs. breaking and offspeed pitches.

I have started calling Reyes “Drago" because “what he hits, he destroys.” His 93.3 mph average exit-velocity was fourth in the Majors, his 51.0% hard-hit rate was fifth, while his 14.8 Brl% was in the Top-6 percentile. Reyes is an ideal target at his current ADP because what you see is what you will get: Tremendous power potential with negatives in terms of BA, OBP, and some slumps that could be more glaring in a shortened season. The Indians will likely hit him cleanup, so if they have enough confidence in him to slot him in there, you should be optimistic he will produce as projected.

Insider Insights on Nomar Mazara

“He may benefit from joining an underrated lineup. There are some really good bats there in Chicago. He has tremendous power promise. He has 16 lifetime homers in Oakland and 20 at Safeco Field. He is continuing to pick up things as he goes along. He is still developing. He won’t have the pressure on him that he did in Texas. He is not a pure hitter but is really more of a power guy."

Half Season Projection from this Insider: .255, 17 HR, 50 RBI.

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Mazara should hit seventh as he begins the White Sox portion of his career, which illustrates this insider’s take that he won’t be in a pressure spot. Mazara never blossomed as hoped in Texas, and the Rangers decided to move on as his production never jumped to the expected levels. But Mazara is just 25 years old and the best may be yet to come for the player that hit the longest home run in baseball last year (505 feet).

He is a key addition to a lineup that has also added Edwin Encarnacion and Yasmani Grandal, while also expecting continued progress from Eloy Jimenez and Yoan Moncada. Tim Anderson has emerged as a star and Luis Robert is a top impact prospect. Chicago's offense should certainly be better than last year when they finished 24^th in runs scored.

Mazara hit 20 homers in each of his first three seasons, and 19 HR in only 116 games, as oblique and thumb injuries contributed to him hitting just four homers in the final two months of the season. Mazara has a career .261 BA, a .251 xBA,  and his walk rate has never been above 7.5%, so it seems he will never see significant increases in those regards.

His 89.1 mph EV was 133^rd in the league, while his 39.3 Hard% ranked 123^rd. A .187 ISO is encouraging, but overall there are no major indicators of a big power surge just yet. The potential is there though, and changing teams while also moving to the fifth-best park for HRs last year make Mazara a very worthy target at an ADP of 234. He could be a good value play for improved power in that deeper draft territory.

Insider Insights on Frankie Montas

“He had pretty good splits last year. He had an even breakdown versus lefties and righties. He has very good mechanics and can consistently repeat his delivery. He has a very good power slider and changeup, and very good command. He is a very promising young pitcher. He was 9-2 with a 2.63 ERA with 103 K and 23 BB in 96 IP last year."

Half-Season Projections from this Insider: 17 starts, 8-5, 3.25 ERA, 100 Ks.

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: Montas had an apparent breakout 2019 season interrupted by a PED suspension, and the disciplinary action can create minor skepticism that we did not see the true Montas last season. But this scout seems to believe Montas will be just as good as he was in '19. Montas added a split-finger fastball last year, and opponents hit just .160 against it with a 40.3 Whiff%. His K% jumped from 15.2% to 26.1% and his walk rate of 5.8% was a new career low. Montas also didn't have any split problems, with a 2.66 ERA vs. LHB and a 2.58 ERA vs. RHB, while his 3.8% Brl% was in the Top-4 percent of the league. He is well worth the price at a 102 ADP and can be one of your core starting pitchers.

Insider Insights on Jo Adell

“He is a stud prospect. He made a nice jump from High A to Triple-A last season. He has good balance at the plate, everything is in sync. He is prone to swings and misses. But he is close to being a star right now. He has to show he can be able to make the adjustments when he makes the team. He can be a .280 to .290 hitter when he matures.”

Half Season Projection from this Insider: .275 with 10 HR.

Jo Adell's Minor League Stats at three levels in the Angels organization in 2019

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: How much Adell will get to play this season is still unclear, as Brian Goodwin remains ahead of him on the depth chart, and it's uncertain how Adell's service time will be addressed. However, there seems to be a strong widespread opinion that Adell is ready for the Majors now, and in a shortened season the Angels may need him right away. I would be betting he opens the season on the MLB roster. He began last season at High-A before moving to Double-A after just six games. Adell had a .308 AVG in 43 games at Double-A, with eight homers and six steals. He struggled some upon his promotion to Triple-A, with no homers, one steal, and a .264 AVG in 27 games, with a 32.6% K-rate.

Adell is just 21 years old and there could be some ups and downs as a rookie, especially since cold streaks will be less tolerable in a shortened season. Plus, fewer games played could mean fewer chances to progressively develop at the MLB level. However, at a 229 ADP, you are not investing much and Adell carries both pop and speed potential, even if his true breakthrough may not come until 2021.

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