The King's Fantasy Baseball Insider Report: Exclusive Scouting Reports From an MLB Veteran

April 17, 2020

This latest installment of the Insider Series features viewpoints from inside the Major League batter’s boxes and infields. We share scouting reports on various pitchers and hitters from a MLB veteran who has been an All-Star more than once and has played in both the A.L. and the N.L.

The award-winning Fantasy Baseball Insider Series continues on RotoBaller, this time with the seasoned input of a current Major League Player. Every year during fantasy baseball draft season, Scott Engel talks to prime MLB sources to get exclusive nuggets of information. On the condition of anonymity, former and current players, executives, scouts, media members and others close to the game provide their unfiltered insights on key players and situations, and Scott supplies his fantasy baseball viewpoints on the commentaries.

These reports contain viewpoints that you will not find anywhere else, from the truest experts on the game: those who play it, have played it, and cover it and work inside the clubhouses. The sources interviewed are all informed that they are being asked questions for fantasy purposes, so they focus on projected player performance and trends that will drive statistical production in their answers.

This latest installment of the Insider Series features viewpoints from inside the Major League batter’s boxes and infields. We share scouting reports on various pitchers and hitters from a MLB veteran who has been an All-Star more than once and has played in both the A.L. and the N.L. He is widely respected among his peers and regarded as a very influential presence on the field and in the clubhouse. He focuses on several pitchers he has opposed recently and some notable players from other teams he has faced.

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Insider Thoughts on Trevor Bauer

“He is going to have a bounce-back season. He really did not get along with Terry Francona in Cleveland. Then he was traded to a team that was not good. He will know the guys in the National League more this year and should be a lot better this season. I think he will actually have a great year.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: This source emphasized that Bauer's struggles were more from the mental perspectives than anything else, and that he still has the stuff to be a very good starting pitcher. Being more familiar with the National League this year would help him more, he said, but with the possibility of proposed realignment now, the Reds would not be in a division with any N.L. Central opponents and only one other N.L. team, the Dodgers. So that could delay him getting more comfortable in the newer division and league. But he will conceivably be in a division with the White Sox and Indians, two teams he knows well, and playing in Arizona could also keep him from working often in a  home park that clearly favors hitters.

Moving to Great American Ball Park, the No. 5 venue in MLB in terms of runs allowed over the past three seasons and third in homers allowed, is an obvious negative factor. In his final two home starts in Cincinnati last season, Bauer allowed nine earned runs and four homers.  If MLB goes ahead with plans to play games in Arizona, though, Bauer can escape further adjusting to Great American for awhile.

Bauer was awful after coming over to Cincinnati. In the second half of the year, he had a 6.39 ERA with a .321 BABIP and a 65% strand rate. Those two latter numbers certainly indicate some bad luck. Overall last year, Bauer's 4.14 SIERA was less unsightly than his 4.48 ERA. He also still managed to register a career-best 253 strikeouts.

RotoBaller projects a 4.07 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 241 strikeouts in 214 innings pitched, which will have to be reduced once we know how long the 2020 season will be. If Bauer outperforms those type of numbers as indicated by this source, you will really like the return at an ADP of 79. Jose Berrios is being selected three picks later and has collapsed in the second half for three consecutive seasons. Bauer's major second half swoon last year seems to more of anomaly when you review how well he fared the year before. Don't pass on him and take Berrios instead.

Insider Thoughts on Corey Kluber

“He is going to have an excellent year. He looked good in spring training and I really like him a lot this year. He won’t wont overpower you but is going to be a little more like Greg Maddux."

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: This scouting report from a player who saw Kluber work in the spring indicates that the two-time Cy Young award winner, may not be as dominant in terms of strikeouts but could fashion a good ERA and WHIP.  The Maddux comparison and comment that "he won't overpower you" points to a rebound season, but with the career K% of 27,1 not quite being approached. The Rangers gave up closer prospect Emmanuel Clase to acquire Kluber, who had an injury-shortened 2019 campaign. Clase is regarded as a possible future closer, according to Cleveland.com, which noted he can throw over 100 mph with very high velocity. So Texas did give up a quality prospect to take the shot on Kluber.

RotoBaller projections for Kluber predict a 3.49 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Kluber could be a strong value choice at an ADP of 98 as others pass on him based on last season and his age. Sonny Gray is going two picks later than Kluber, and does not have two Cy Young awards in his trophy case like the former Indian. Gray's 2019 performance seems to be an outlier as well. The next two pitchers off the board, Mike Soroka and Frankie Montas, are much less proven than Kluber.

Insider Thoughts on Andrew Benintendi

“He is going to bounce back. He fell down last season but this will be a good year for him, maybe a big one. He can go to the opposite field effectively in Fenway Park.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: The "opposite field" comment from this source points to a key for a rebound campaign for Benintendi. Only eight of his career homers have come to the opposite field so far, and that was an emphasis for Boston last season, for him to hit for more power that way. If he can continue to progress in that regard, you can expect a better chance of a rebound year, and maybe even his best season yet, as this source said.

“I’m getting older and stronger and can maybe hit it a little further that way,” Benintendi told the Boston Globe last season. “I think as time goes on, my opposite-field power will show up more.” As also noted by the Globe, the ability of the Green Monster to turn routine fly balls into doubles and homers is why Red Sox hitters gun for the wall. His Oppo% dropped from 28.2% to 26.9% last year and you should be looking for that number to rise again this season.

Injuries have also frequently been mentioned as a primary factor in Benintendi’s slippage last season. In an upcoming Insider installment, I will also point out that he may have been facing other challenges, including being affected by trade rumors and uphill battles in a losing clubhouse, according to a longtime scout. Benintendi’s K% went up to 22.8% from 16%, which was certainly alarming. But he did raise his Hard Hit% from 33.1% to 37.7% and his Barrel% went up from 6.4% to 8.1%, so there are two factors that can point to more hope for 2020. RotoBaller projections suggest he will hit .280 with 18 homers, 89 RBI and 13 steals, which would obviously have to be reduced if we do not get a full season of play. Those are pretty good total markers across the board for an ADP of 113, and Benintendi may have a bit more upside than what those totals indicate.

Andrew Benintendi's career home run spray chart, via fangraphs.com

Insider Thoughts on Eduardo Rodriguez

“I have been able to hit well against him. He is hit or miss, and is a risky one. He can have two to three good outings then he will get shelled.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle – Savvy fantasy players know you should not chase wins, and this source certainly indicates that Rodriguez’s 19 victories won’t be attainable again. He did not think that E-Rod was a consistent or dependable pitcher. Rodriguez did have ERAs of 5.47 in April and 4.38 in June. In every month but one, he also had at least one game of five earned runs or more, pointing to those "shellings" from our source.

For three seasons previously in the Insider Series, I had been getting glowing scouting reports on Rodriguez from Boston sources. But some opponents and fantasy analysts remain a bit skeptical. His 3.81 ERA was not supported too well by a 4.31 SIERA. E-Rod only logged 203.1 IP in 34 starts, and had 16 quality starts.

RotoBaller projections predict that E-Rod will drop to 182 IP this year and the strikeouts will drop to 190 (expecting a full season). The ERA will be closer to 4.00. His K-BB% dropped from 18.3 to 16.1 and his swinging strike rate only jumped slightly to 11.7, which is not very high in today's strikeout-happy MLB environment. E-Rod does not last deep into games and doesn't have much more upside than what we saw from him the last two seasons. He had the second-best run support of any pitcher in the Majors last year. E-Rod is going to have his ups and downs and at an ADP of 134. I would hope to get more promising performers such as Max Fried at 133 or Julio Urias 15 picks later.

Insider Thoughts on Hyun-Jin Ryu

“I would take him any day of the week. He uses four to five pitches that are all nasty. I don’t care where he plays.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: The second comment above was in response to me pointing out that Ryu was moving to the American League and to Rogers Centre, the most generous venue for home runs last season. If the league does go through with the plan to play games at spring training games and realigns the divisions, Ryu may be less threatened by such factors as well. Ryu’s 2.32 ERA last season was not supported well, though, by a 3.32 xFIP and even more concerning, a 3.77 SIERA. His K% dropped from 27.5 to 22.5 and he was fortunate with an 82.2% strand rate.

Ryu’s most effective pitch of his offerings is his changeup, which generated a .190 BAA last year. Opponents did hit .285 vs the cutter. The sinker induced a .346 BAA. So not all of his pitches were truly “nasty” to everyone. As indicated in the table below, three of his pitches are the main factors for his success. RotoBaller projections predict his ERA will jump to 3.89 and the WHIP to 1.21. Durability has also been a frequent concern for Ryu’s owners. But at an ADP of 139 he should still give you satisfactory production. Do keep in mind the source here believes he can come close to replicating last year’s performance.

Hyun-Jin Ryu 2019 pitch tracking via baseballsavant.com - our source says all of his pitches are "nasty", but it is clear he widely challenges batters mostly with his changeup, four-seamer and curve. 

Insider Thoughts on Tyler Glasnow

“I love him. He throws hard and is a gamer. He is very overpowering. His pitches are hard to pick up and that makes his off-speed stuff much harder to hit.”

Engel’s Fantasy Angle: A forearm issue cut into Glasnow’s promising season last year, but he is generating a lot of respect from opponents and fantasy types heading into 2020. His 1.76 ERA was connected to a 3.18 SIERA, which is still impressive. He was helped by a .265 BABIP. But ultimately, when you look at a pitcher with a K-BB% of 26.9 he is well worth the upside pick at an ADP of 69. As for the comment on his off-speed offerings, check the chart below. Glasnow throws three pitches, and the curve is clearly a prime weapon. He might have to utilize a third pitch, such as the changeup, more often to truly reach his potential consistently.

Tyler Glasnow 2019 pitch tracking via baseballsavant.com.

Insider Thoughts on Franmil Reyes

“He won’t just be a power hitter, he can give you other numbers. I like his frame and the way he plays the game. This will be a fresh new year for him and he will be start to be more comfortable hitting the ball into the gaps. He is a hard-nosed player. He doesn’t take a pitch or a play off.”

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Engel’s Fantasy Angle: I am very intrigued by Reyes as a pure power source, and while this player likes what he has seen as well. Reyes can now concentrate mostly on hitting as a DH for the season, and the .263 ISO is highly enticing. Of course, the 28.5 K% can keep the batting average down. His xBA of .264 was not awful, though. But then you consider his Exit Velocity of 91.3 was fourth best in the entire Majors and the Hard Hit% of 51.0% was fifth in the league. The Barrel% of 14.8% was also in the top six percent of the league. Reyes could be the Ivan Drago of the American League – “whatever he hits, he destroys.” There are 35 to 40 homers in his bat again for an ADP of 132.

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