RADIO
Welcome back to my League of Legends DFS column here at Rotoballer! We will continue to extend our analysis for LoL DFS across different leagues and sites, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. With five more games on the docket tonight in the LPL and LCK and the LCS and LEC playoffs in full swing, it's an excellent time for ESports DFS enthusiasts like myself and the number of contests on FanDuel and DraftKings continues to grow.
There are three LPL matches, and two in the LCK grace the slate tonight, as we all get ready for DraftKings massive Insomnia Special. With $300,000 guaranteed with $100,000 to first place, this is the type of large tournament we used to only see during LCS slates. It's so awesome to see these massive contests in ESports DFS and one can only hope that the enthusiasm for our sport continues even after the rest of the sports world resumes.
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LPL/LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 2:00 AM on Wednesday, April 8th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM: Damwon Gaming (-550) vs. Griffin
The first of the two LCK matches begins at 4:00 AM, which is a departure from the three-game slates we had seen, which locked at 2:00 AM. The most significant change with this setup is that we will not have the starting lineups for this match pre-lock, as LCK teams only release their starting lineups about an hour ahead of their games start time.
On FanDuel, this will not be an issue as they allow late swap, but those of us chasing the 100k on DraftKings will be risking a bit more to take anyone from the LCK matches on Wednesday. With that note out of the way time to get down to business as DWG look to extend their winning streak to five games.
Since placing Ghost into the starting lineup on a full-time basis, DWG has been on fire reeling off four straight wins vs. APK, HLE, AFS, and league leader T1. Griffin, too, has been showing some spark since making changes to their starting lineup. Inserting the veteran Untara into their top lane has sparked Griffin. They have improved steadily by taking a game each from KT and T1, finishing up their run by taking down APK 2-1.
One of these two streaks must come to an end on Wednesday morning, and I can confidently say it will be DWG carrying on in their winning ways. Nearly every measurable team stat points in that direction as well, with Griffin only really having as a slight advantage in first blood %. Damwon defeated Griffin 2-1 the first time these teams met this year in week three, and I look for them to secure the season sweep with a clean 2-0 victory.
Nuguri - TOP ($6,800)
Damwon focus their top side of the map early; they have a 61% Rift Herald take. Nuguri uses his teams' focus on top-lane trading aggressively early, knowing he will have backup when Canyon roams his direction to set up for those herald takes. Nuguri is tied for first in the LCK in the percentage of his team's gold among top-laners. He leads the league in DPM, CSM, DMG percentage, and, unfortunately, death percentage, too, as other teams know DWG's strategy regarding their star top-laner. Nuguri is the second most expensive top-laner on the slate, but he brings the upside often scoring in the 90s when his team sweeps as I expect them to do here.
Showmaker - MID ($7,600)
The other of DWG's star solo-laners, Showmaker is also expensive, but packed with upside in this matchup as his counterpart Ucal is second in the league in death %. Showmaker also sits well ahead of Ucal in CSM, DPM, and his vision statistics. I expect him to have a high kill low death game here in an exploitable matchup.
5:00 AM: APK Prince vs. Gen G (-1400)
The only real question in the next match in the LCK is who will start at support for Gen G. The first-place team in the league Gen G is an overwhelming favorite Wednesday morning, a well-deserved position. The only real advantage that APK has over the former world champions is in their top-lane focus, and rift herald %.
I have no concern about APK taking this advantage and snowballing a game out of control. One of Gen G's biggest strengths is their map control, I often joke that they will win a game this year without any kills so dominant are they around objectives.
This match will be a nice spot just to note that the mark of a good team is often not whether they win or lose, but how they do it. Good teams lose less and win more; that's a simple way to say that if APK gets ahead on the top side of the map with the rift herald, I guarantee you that Gen G will be answering almost immediately on the bottom side with dragons and turret plate gold of their own.
Clid - JNG ($7,400)
APK's jungler flawless has been a major player in their recent run of form, but he will have his hands full with the playoffs MVP from last year. Clid is second on the team in KP%, and he has 63% first blood percentage.
Bdd - MID ($7,400)
Often the beneficiary of Clid's first blood is Bdd; he sits at 40% of the team's first-bloods and leads the team in KP%. Gen G has struggled a bit as of late taking losses to T1 and DRX, but this is a get right spot for them vs. a much less talented team.
LPL Matches
2:00 AM: Rogue Warriors vs. Vici Gaming (-305)
Both of these teams were in action on Monday morning, and they both took painful 2-1 defeats. TES toyed with RW plainly experimenting with some team compositions in the first two games and then going wild in the third. VG faced off with OMG in a match with big-time playoff implications, but they too fell short.
VG comes into this match as the favorites; the exciting thing is they are the second-highest LPL favorite just behind TES. That is too much of spread to me for the 10th place team vs. the 12th, so while I can see either team winning this match, I would invest heavier into the RW side for some value.
Both teams invest heavily into their ADCs, and rely on their aggressive junglers to try to get the bot lane ahead. Rw managed to take first blood in two of the three games vs. TES on Monday, and if they can continue that early aggression, they could topple VG here. Either way, I would look to target the ADCs, Junglers, and Supports for fantasy purposes Wednesday AM.
Haro - JNG ($6,200)
It's a smaller sample size since he just rejoined the starting roster, but Haro leads the team with 80% KP, and 31% kill share. The team has been drafting him early pressure or carry junglers to enable this. Olaf, Kindred, and even a Graves show their commitment to letting him play his style of champion.
ZWuji - ADC ($6,600)
King Wuji has all the fantasy upside in the world. He can easily eclipse 100 DKP in any matchup, due to the fact RW gives him the most gold of anyone on the team as he is often their sole win condition. He is second to Haro with a 75.6 kp% that is also good enough for fourth in the league.
4:00 AM: Suning Gaming vs. Oh My God (-230)
The second LPL match of the night is another close match featuring OMG, who currently holds the final playoff spot in 8th vs. SNG, the 11th place team. OMG is the better all-around team, and deserve to be favored here. Sng barely leads in dragon %, whereas OMG has better baron numbers.
OMG took down VG on Monday, another team like Suning that has a severe bot lane focus. OMG has been winning through the top half of the map and putting their bot lane on safer scaling options like Kaisa or Senna. Even though they've played some later game comps, they have been able to pick their spots early in games as well.
Versus VG, they were aggressive early, and like many LPL teams were able to accelerate their later game team comp and bring it online by 25 minutes. They are a playoff-caliber team with several ways to win a match, SNG is not, and laser-focus their bot advantage. OMG should pick up the win here 2-1.
Curse - TOP ($6,000)
If you saw his Ornn performance on Monday, you'll know this price is a bit silly. The sixth most expensive top-laner on the slate on DraftKings Curse showed he could carry even on a tank champion. He should be able to abuse whoever starts in the top-lane for SNG with an early CS and gold lead, and once he gets ahead, lookout. For this price, he'll be a top target for me Wednesday.
H4cker - JNG ($6,600)
The disrespectful pricing on OMG carries over to their jungler. I think the prices are still depressed here due to the losing streak OMG was on, but I'm not concerned about that as the teams they were losing to were all top tier teams. H4cker leads the team in KP% and will make a nice value piece on Wednesday.
6:00 AM: Team WE vs. Top Esports (-375)
Despite any struggles they may have had vs. VG on Monday TES is definitively a top 5 team in this league. WE are a young team that has shown some upside, but they have yet to beat a team above them in the standings. They will not change that today, DraftKings has priced TES as the most expensive team across the board.
Knight - MID ($8,000)
Commonly regarded as one of the top mid-laners in the world, Knight might be the MVP of the league this year. Knight leads TES with 77.2% kill participation, plus he is second on the team with a 27.5% kill share. Knight has gone over 100 DKP in three of his last four. Without Jackeylove starting yet Knight should have the upside to go big again.
Karsa - JNG ($7,600)
Karsa has the second-best KP% on the team, with 71.5%. Without having to ease Jackey into the lineup TES is free to pursue business as usual, and that is getting Knight rolling so he can control the game from mid lane.
Summary
I've given you my thoughts for Wednesday's big five-game slate, but with the size of some of these contests and the anything-can-happen-nature of the LPL, I don't think anything is off the table.
OMG might surrender an early lead bot, and Huangfeng could take you to the promised land. Even Gen G has looked beatable. A standard 4-3 double support lineup has won everything more than once in the past week, so I'll be prepared for anything. So let's cash in those tickets and make some bank!
Looking Forward
With LPL and LCK overnight slates continuing through mid-April, we here at RotoBaller have got you covered. The League of Legends DFS action never stops. The LEC and LCS playoffs are in full swing, and EU Masters kicked off yesterday.
Be sure to check back throughout the week as we'll be publishing daily ESports DFS articles, analysis and lineup picks for League Of Legends, Counter Strike, Rocket League and eNASCAR. Thanks for reading, and good luck RotoBallers!
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