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We continue our preseason fantasy football sleeper series with a look at New England Patriots running back Rex Burkhead.
While the first few rounds of every draft are essentially a wash-rinse-repeat of the consensus top-36, we can always count on those middle and late rounds to cement our confidence in this year's sleepers. The definition of the fantasy football sleeper has changed over the years, with the emergence of the industry itself on social media. The common sleeper today isn't a player that is being 'slept on' by the community. They're more like a player in a great spot to outperform his average draft position based on a plethora of factors.
Let's see why Burkhead could fit that bill in upcoming fantasy drafts.
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2018 Sleeper - Rex Burkhead
Over the years, the New England Patriots backfield has proven to be a difficult quagmire to navigate. But fantasy glory awaits those who are able to choose wisely as the Patriots have continually produced league-winning running backs who usually come at a cheap cost to acquire. Examples include Dion Lewis in 2017 and LeGarrette Blount in 2016, both who came into the season with very little hype.
The Patriots' backfield will be as crowded and muddled as ever in 2018. While Lewis is now a member of the Tennessee Titans, New England surprised many when they used a first-round pick on Georgia running back Sony Michel in the 2018 draft. Michel is a solid NFL prospect and comes into the league with plenty of hype after splitting college carries with Nick Chubb as a Bulldog.
Pass-catching specialist and Super Bowl darling James White is still in town, as is second-year Patriot Rex Burkhead, fresh off of signing a three-year extension. Those three players project as the team's three main backs, although first and second down grinders Jeremy Hill and Mike Gillislee will fight in training camp for a spot on the 53-man roster.
Upon glancing at the average draft positions in 12-team, PPR leagues over at fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Michel is the first New England back coming off the board in the late fourth/early fifth rounds. Burkhead can be had in the mid-seventh while White is a 13th-round flier. While many fantasy owners are rushing to draft Michel, the new, shiny toy in the Patriots' toybox, Burkhead sets up as a sleeper to finish as a low-end RB1 in 2018.
Most fantasy gamers remember the epic run that Dion Lewis went on at the end of the 2017 regular season, capped off by a 153-all-purpose yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 16 against the Buffalo Bills, propelling many of his owners to fantasy championships. What isn't remembered quite as well is the run put together by Burkhead from Weeks 10 through 15 where he averaged 15.4 PPR fantasy points per game despite splitting touches with the aforementioned Lewis. Even with Sony Michel taking the place of Lewis in 2018, it would be a safe assumption that Burkhead will return to his do-it-all role in the New England backfield. That role would allow Burkhead to settle in as an every week RB2 for fantasy purposes.
Finishing as an RB2 is a reasonable floor for Burkhead but he also has an RB1 ceiling playing for an explosive New England offense that should be in the red zone often. Michel is an impressive all-around running back but he struggled with fumbles throughout his college career, putting the ball on the ground 12 times in 47 games at Georgia.
It is no secret that New England head coach Bill Belichick does not tolerate fumbles from his running backs. It is not a far stretch to imagine Michel finding himself in the doghouse for fumbling and losing touches to Burkhead during the season. If that were to happen and Burkhead was to earn a majority of the team's carries along with goal-line work, he would certainly finish as a top-12 running back. At the cost of just a seventh-round pick in drafts, Burkhead should be a priority target in fantasy drafts.
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