RADIO
Welcome back RotoBallers! Bubba Watson (-12) won his third Genesis Open by two strokes over Kevin Na and Tony Finau. I am beyond mad. I had chosen Watson and wrote, "It's like the golf world forgot him after he won two green jackets. But I think this is the year he reminds people why he's a two-time Masters champ." But after he said he'd withdraw if it conflicted the the NBA All-Star Celebrity Game, I immediately yanked him from all of my lineups.
I'll look to bounce back this week, providing you with my DraftKings lineup picks for The Honda Classic. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @Seth_Fink.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
The Honda Classic
The West Coast swing is over and now we head to beautiful Palm Beach Gardens, FL. The par-70, 7,140 yard PGA National Champions Course will play host to this tournament (this is Jack Nicklaus's course). The green firmness can vary, but it usually is towards the medium firmness. Now that we're in Florida, the greens are Bermuda grass. And there is a ton of water on this course.
There are four par-3's, 12 par-4's, and just two par-5's. The 15th, 16th, and 17th holes are the coursers most famous known as, The Bear Trap.
Rickie Fowler is the defending champion. Winners of prior years are, Adam Scott, Padraig Harrington, Russell Henley, Michael Thompson, Rory McIlroy, Rory Sabbatini, and Camilo Villegas.
Fowler has the most total strokes gained at The Honda the last five years followed by Sergio Garcia, Scott, Graeme McDowell, and Ryan Palmer.
My custom stat model will be focusing an even weight (20%) on greens-in-regulation gained, SG: ball striking, SG: approach, SG:Tee-2-Green, and SG: Par 4
My rankings will factor in my custom stat model for the last 12 rounds at PGA National. I also used my custom stat model to look with all courses as the focus over the past 24 rounds.
With the results, I keyed on the following players.
Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)
High-Priced Players
There are five players this week priced above $10,000; Rickie Fowler ($11,700), Rory McIlroy ($11,500), Justin Thomas ($11,300), Sergio Garcia ($10,500) and Alex Noren ($10,100).
Fowler is the defending champion. He hasn't played in three weeks. His numbers are good for this event.
McIlroy looked good last week with a T-20, but I still need to see more of him this year.
Thomas had a T-9 last week. He's competed here three times; cut twice and T-3 the other.
Garcia will be making his PGA Tour debut and I usually stray away from that, but Garcia has had great numbers here; two top-10's and a top-20 in the past four years.
Noren continues his strong PGA Tour showing, but this price is too much for me.
Fowler and Garcia are the two I high-priced players I like.
Middle-Priced Players
Gary Woodland ($9,700) - The Phoenix Open champion took off the Genesis Open last week after being cut at Pebble two weeks ago. He's 3/3 in cuts made at the Honda including a runner-up last year. And he's number one in my all courses rankings.
Kevin Kisner ($8,500) - This is a CBS Sportsline play. He's not finished better than a T-48 here, but I'll trust CBS Sportsline, they've been right for a while.
Tiger Woods ($8,200) - I can't believe I'm choosing him. I never thought he'd be ranked number three in my Honda rankings. While he was a disaster last week, he has had a good history at the Honda including a runner-up in 2012. My gut tells me not to pick him, but the numbers tell me otherwise. Choose him at your own risk.
Adam Scott ($7,700) - I was all-in on him last week, but he disappointed with a T-53. But he is tremendous at this event with a T-12 in 2014, winning in 2016, and a T-14 last year.
Keegan Bradley ($7,700) - This will be his PGA Tour debut and it's the perfect venue for him after he was runner-up last year. He last played three weeks at Dubai where he was T-32. Pieters has also gained over a stroke putting on Poa surfaces.
Chesson Hadley ($7,700) - He's number two in my overall rankings. Hadley is 4/4 in cuts in 2018 with one top-5. In three Honda's he's had two top-25's and a missed cut.
Bernd Wiesberger ($7,600) - The Austrian will be making his 2018 PGA Tour debut. He made 2/3 cuts on the European Tour since the start of the new year. He competed here in 2016, but was cut.
Scott Piercy ($7,300) - He's ranked 91 in my Honda course rankings and that's because 1/3 in cuts with a T-31. However, he's fifth in my overall rankings and has had a nice start to the season with a T-20 at Pebble and T-6 at the Career Builder.
Nick Watney ($7,200) - He's played here three times since 2014 and has finished inside the top-25 in all of them. He's 4/4 in cuts made in 2018.
Chris Stroud ($7,100) - From 2012-14 at the Honda he finished T-9, T-13, and T-12, but then in '15 missed a cut and in '16 withdrew (he did not play last year). He was cut at the Genesis last week and has alternated cuts with making the cut in 2018.
Billy Horschel ($7,100) - He's been cut at the past two tournaments which means his ownership will be low. However, he was T-8 and T-4 the past two years at the Honda.
Luke Donald ($7,000) - I choose him two weeks ago where was cut and then didn't last week when he was T-37. He's made the past four cuts at the Honda including two top-10's.
Low-Priced Players
Ryan Armour ($6,700) - He's made the past two cuts, but has missed the cut his past two Honda's. His numbers are good in my all courses rankings so I'll take him as a flier.
Danny Lee ($6,600) - He's not high in my rankings, but he has good strokes gained numbers over the past number of rounds. He's been cut at his past two tournaments and his past two Honda's. He'll have a low ownership and is bound for a good week eventually.
Best of luck RotoBallers!
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
Custom Stat Model - DFS Golf Advanced Tools
Here are the players I wrote about and their correlating stats with my custom stat model:
Premium DFS Golf Tools and Lineup Optimizer
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