RADIO
It’s crazy to think we are already halfway through the NFL regular season. Now is the start of one of the busiest times of the year for fantasy owners as they ready themselves for championship runs, playoff pushes, or already moving on to 2018.
For those of you in the hunt for a playoff spot or just outside the cutoff, now is the time to evaluate your roster and start making decisions to help you get over the cliff and into the postseason. Consistency in your lineup becomes a big part of your success moving forward. If you have too much consistency, your team may be lacking in explosiveness, despite scoring a healthy amount of points each week. On the other hand, your team may be too inconsistent and it feels like your players can never hit at the same time. This is where either trading or trading for consistency comes into play.
Like the last two weeks, I will breakdown the consistency leaders by position. I have filtered each position by the top-24 in fantasy points per game and then sorted the top-12 and 13-24 by weekly floor.
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Quarterbacks
As mentioned, these are the top-24 quarterbacks in terms of fantasy points per game. The line in the middle splits the QB1s from the QB2s. Looking at the top-12 first, Dak Prescott remains at the top of the list in terms of weekly floor, while also boasting a high weekly ceiling after last week’s game. Prescott has solidified himself as an elite fantasy quarterback in 2017 and a top-10 dynasty asset at the position. Another name in the top-12 I want to highlight is Russell Wilson. Wilson comes in at eighth in terms of weekly floor, despite being a relatively boom-bust fantasy player through seven weeks. Over the last few years, Wilson has shown he is a much better second-half player, and it appeared to begin in Week 7. In redraft, I am buying Wilson for a playoff push and he remains a top-5 dynasty quarterback in my rankings. I am expecting a big second-half for Wilson and his consistency numbers show you can count on him more than some other names.
Moving on to the QB2s, there are a couple names that might surprise you. The first is Matt Ryan, who has had a disappointing campaign so far for fantasy owners who paid his early round price in the summer. Among the 24 quarterbacks listed, Ryan ranks 23rd in terms of weekly ceiling, barely above Ben Roethlisberger. He is a risky play given his poor performance through seven weeks, but his name should still hold value in most leagues. Explore trade options for him in redraft and dynasty formats.
Another quarterback I would like to point out is Tyrod Taylor. While Taylor’s name does not get much love, he has shown to be a reliable fantasy asset for QB-needy teams. His rushing ability gives him a solid double-digit floor on weekly basis, but his lack of receivers caps his ceiling. He always has the potential to rush for a score or connect with LeSean McCoy for a passing touchdown, which makes him a safe weekly option with potential to break off a 20-point game. He should not be relied upon as an every week starter, but he is one of the top bye week fill-ins among other quarterbacks.
Running Back
Looking at running backs, the majority of the top-12 should come as no surprise and are plug-and-plays every week. There are two names, however, that stand out among the rest: Chris Thompson and Christian McCaffrey. Now, if you are deciding between the two players note this, both players have basically the same floor (around nine ppg), but Thompson offers a much higher ceiling of 27.22 points compared to McCaffrey’s 19.19. Thompson has surprised me with his continued involvement in the Washington pass attack and has become a valuable PPR asset. In fact, Thompson is currently the RB8 in PPR formats. McCaffrey is very similar, getting almost all of his work in the passing game. Despite his stats on the ground, McCaffrey has been more than capable of gaining his production through the air. In PPR formats, he is currently the RB10 through seven weeks, despite being viewed by many as a disappointment.
Moving down the list to the RB2s, we see a mix of familiar names mixed in with pass-catchers and scat backs. Obviously, if we are talking high floors, scat backs like James White and Tarik Cohen will always make the list, given their involvement in the passing game. At the top of the RB2 list, we see Doug Martin, who is currently boasting a higher floor than almost half of the RB1s. This may be due to a small 2017 sample size, but Martin has been extremely consistent in his three games. The Buccaneers want to be a run-first offense, and Martin will continue to see the lion’s share of carries. He is a high RB2 with upside moving forward and a great trade target for any team looking for some consistency at their running back position.
Wide Receivers
Moving on to the wide receiver position, almost every player in the top-24 should be no surprise. In fact, if we move straight to the WR2s, we see two players who seem like they don’t belong, but actually do by their 2017 production.
The first is Nelson Agholor, who continues to impress in his breakout third year. His production may be linked to the breakout of Carson Wentz as well, who is playing like a seasoned veteran leading the Eagles to a potential one seed in the NFC. Agholor has already broken his career-high in yards and touchdowns and is on pace for 60 receptions on the year. His fantasy production has mainly come from his five touchdowns, but with the way Wentz and the Eagles are playing, Agholor shows no signs of stopping. In dynasty, his price has yet to meet his production so far, making him an interesting buy before his stock rises.
The second name is Chris Hogan, who, like Agholor, has been a product of high touchdown numbers through seven weeks. This is shown in his fairly high standard deviation of 7.62 coupled with only 13.93 fantasy points per game. Hogan remains a high ceiling play with Brady at the helm, but can be a risky play if he doesn’t hit. For those rosters who could use more explosiveness in your lineup, Hogan could be a nice trade target after going two weeks without a score.
Tight Ends
Looking finally at the tight end position, not much changed from last week to this week. Jordan Reed had a monster two touchdown performance, which elevated his ceiling statistically to 19.28. Other than that, tight end performance was relatively normal last week.
I would like to highlight one player who I believe has not gotten the love he deserves through the first seven weeks. Since Week 2, Ben Watson has only had one game with less than 8 fantasy points, despite only scoring once in that timespan. He has been one of the most consistent tight ends in 2017 and is averaging 9.4 points per game. Though he does not offer the high floor that other tight ends can produce, Watson is a safe option for any team looking for a bye week fill-in or a Charles Clay replacement still. If he were to find the endzone, you are looking at a 16+ point week from a tight end who is owned in only 7.7% of ESPN leagues.
Since filtering each position by only the top-24, a lot of highly owned names were left out. To remedy this, here is a look at players deemed as flex plays given they are outside the top-24 at their position. I sorted the players into two charts: floor plays and ceiling plays. Depending on your matchup and roster construction, you may need that high ceiling play in order to make up some points lost by having players on bye. On the other hand, you might be in a great position to win your week, so long as your team doesn’t lay an egg. Because of that, here are the top-20 floor plays and ceiling plays among flex position players. Players on both lists are bold and italicized, to maximize your flex position plays.
Floor Plays
Ceiling Plays
