May 20, 2017

Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

Big market, big name, big deal. Sometimes we need to let go of the past and take a hard look at some players who simply aren't living up to their reputations. Likewise, some players who fall under the "failed prospect" label could wind up providing better value than that big free agent signing you're holding onto. As you may have guessed, you'll find examples of each in this week's piece.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

I will include one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Pitcher). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Underrated Players - Week 8

Justin Smoak (1B, TOR) 36% owned

Does 2017 mark a breakout for the former Rangers/Mariners prospect that has been laboring for eight Major League seasons? This first-round pick was a top-25 prospect back in 2010, but never lived up to his potential. Now, at age 30, Smoak is suddenly filling the void left by Edwin Encarnacion at first base by outproducing the All-Star slugger. Smoak has nine home runs and 28 RBI in 42 games (compared to six HR, 14 RBI for EE). Is it going to last?

Smoak's power stroke has been fairly consistent in the majors and his current 15.8% HR/FB isn't disproportionately higher than his career mark of 11.4%. His recipe for success has been more contact and harder contact. Smoak has cut down on his strikeout rate by 13 points compared to last season, currently posting what would be a career-low 8.6% swinging strike percent. Smoak has never hit more than 20 homers at the professional level, only reaching that mark once, so even if he does put up his best season, it would seem that 25 HR is a reasonable ceiling. Since there aren't any fluky stats bound for hard regression, it would be wise to grab Smoak in mixed leagues as a consistent run-producer for your corner infield spot.

Jarrod Dyson (OF, SEA) 19% owned

We've already discussed how elite base-stealers are an increasingly rare commodity in fantasy baseball. Dyson isn't at the Billy Hamilton/Dee Gordon elite level, but he should finish squarely in the second tier. Even as a part-time player who has always dealt with occasional injuries, Dyson has managed to steal 30 or more bases in four of the last five seasons. He's up to 12 already with about a quarter of the season gone by, so do the math and you can figure out he is on pace to set a career-high in steals.

Playing time is no longer an issue since Seattle is struggling to keep healthy bodies on the field. Obviously, you're sacrificing power stats and he isn't the type who will sniff .300, but his current .222 average should rise closer to his .257 career mark eventually. Despite the Mariners' early offensive woes, he has managed to at least score 24 runs so he should produce enough value to warrant playing every day in leagues of 14 or more teams. There simply aren't enough reliable options for steals on the waiver wire to pass over a speedster like Dyson if he's available.

Michael Wacha (SP, STL) 73% owned

Any minute now, Wacha could head to the DL and wreck this endorsement, but here it goes anyway. Before Friday, Wacha's previous start was skipped simply as part of regular maintenance. This may unnerve some current Wacha owners or those considering adding him in shallower leagues. Then he went out and threw six scoreless inning this evening, lowering his ERA to 2.74.

Wacha was an afterthought in most fantasy drafts this season after an ugly 2016 that included a 5.09 ERA and a 7.43 K/9 that didn't make up for his horrible ratios. He did suffer some bad luck, with a 64.7% strand rate and a .334 BABIP, so it shouldn't be surprising to see him bounce back as long as he's healthy (knock on wood). He still won't give you an edge in the strikeout category, but Wacha is talented enough to help nearly everywhere else.

Overrated Players - Week 8

Logan Forsythe (2B, LAD) 40% owned

With news that Forsythe will come off the DL by Tuesday, he may seem like a desirable waiver pickup this week, but why? He was a somewhat trendy pre-season pick once it was discovered he would move to L.A. It turns out playing for the Dodgers isn't enough to make Forsythe a fantasy force; they've only scored nine more runs than Tampa Bay at this point in the season. His .295 average and .407 on-base percentage are good, but he's got no homers, no steals, and three RBI.

Forsythe smacked a career-high 20 HR last season, but he also enjoyed a career-high 9.7% HR/FB rate. The worst news is that replacement Chris Taylor has been raking in his absence, hitting .324 with 15 RBI in 74 at-bats. Forsythe will temporarily man third base now that Justin Turner is on the shelf, but may have to fight for at-bats after that. There are several replacement-level players that can produce numbers similar to Forsythe, so don't scramble to add him expecting a sudden power surge.

Stephen Piscotty (OF, STL) 60% owned

I generally try to avoid naming players who are injured on this list, because you can't claim someone as overrated based on poor health. In this case, I'm simply calling him overowned and advising the 60% who still have Piscotty to consider cutting bait, unless you are in a keeper league and have him at a low price. Piscotty was impressive in his second season, producing 22 HR and 85 RBI with a .305 average. He was never a shoo-in to replicate those numbers, however, as it was his first 20-homer season as a professional.

Piscotty is down to .241 with only two homers so far, although his BABIP is a bit suppressed at .283. If anything, his plate discipline is much improved, but his extra base rates are going down. The average may climb, but it's not clear the power will come back enough to make him an OF3 in mixed leagues.

Matt Harvey (SP, NYM) 78% owned

This isn't about Harvey's supposed lack of commitment to his team or any of that nonsense. Harvey has been healthy enough to make eight starts and avoid the DL so far, but there are some disturbing trends continuing in what should have been his bounce back season.

Even before last season's debacle, it should have been noted that Harvey's strikeout rate has declined steadily every year since he was a rookie, from 28.6% in 2012 down to 15.4% in 2017. Accordingly, his walk rate has increased every season since 2013, up to 11% this year. Finally, his HR/9 rate, which was once a league-best 0.4 in his All-Star season, has inflated up to 2.2. If you've been holding on this long in hopes of seeing the Dark Knight of old, it may be time to put that dream to bed.

More Risers and Fallers

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