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Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 8

Pierre Camus takes a look at players who may be overvalued or undervalued. These players could be buy or sell candidates for the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

Big market, big name, big deal. Sometimes we need to let go of the past and take a hard look at some players who simply aren't living up to their reputations. Likewise, some players who fall under the "failed prospect" label could wind up providing better value than that big free agent signing you're holding onto. As you may have guessed, you'll find examples of each in this week's piece.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

I will include one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Pitcher). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Underrated Players - Week 8

Justin Smoak (1B, TOR) 36% owned

Does 2017 mark a breakout for the former Rangers/Mariners prospect that has been laboring for eight Major League seasons? This first-round pick was a top-25 prospect back in 2010, but never lived up to his potential. Now, at age 30, Smoak is suddenly filling the void left by Edwin Encarnacion at first base by outproducing the All-Star slugger. Smoak has nine home runs and 28 RBI in 42 games (compared to six HR, 14 RBI for EE). Is it going to last?

Smoak's power stroke has been fairly consistent in the majors and his current 15.8% HR/FB isn't disproportionately higher than his career mark of 11.4%. His recipe for success has been more contact and harder contact. Smoak has cut down on his strikeout rate by 13 points compared to last season, currently posting what would be a career-low 8.6% swinging strike percent. Smoak has never hit more than 20 homers at the professional level, only reaching that mark once, so even if he does put up his best season, it would seem that 25 HR is a reasonable ceiling. Since there aren't any fluky stats bound for hard regression, it would be wise to grab Smoak in mixed leagues as a consistent run-producer for your corner infield spot.

Jarrod Dyson (OF, SEA) 19% owned

We've already discussed how elite base-stealers are an increasingly rare commodity in fantasy baseball. Dyson isn't at the Billy Hamilton/Dee Gordon elite level, but he should finish squarely in the second tier. Even as a part-time player who has always dealt with occasional injuries, Dyson has managed to steal 30 or more bases in four of the last five seasons. He's up to 12 already with about a quarter of the season gone by, so do the math and you can figure out he is on pace to set a career-high in steals.

Playing time is no longer an issue since Seattle is struggling to keep healthy bodies on the field. Obviously, you're sacrificing power stats and he isn't the type who will sniff .300, but his current .222 average should rise closer to his .257 career mark eventually. Despite the Mariners' early offensive woes, he has managed to at least score 24 runs so he should produce enough value to warrant playing every day in leagues of 14 or more teams. There simply aren't enough reliable options for steals on the waiver wire to pass over a speedster like Dyson if he's available.

Michael Wacha (SP, STL) 73% owned

Any minute now, Wacha could head to the DL and wreck this endorsement, but here it goes anyway. Before Friday, Wacha's previous start was skipped simply as part of regular maintenance. This may unnerve some current Wacha owners or those considering adding him in shallower leagues. Then he went out and threw six scoreless inning this evening, lowering his ERA to 2.74.

Wacha was an afterthought in most fantasy drafts this season after an ugly 2016 that included a 5.09 ERA and a 7.43 K/9 that didn't make up for his horrible ratios. He did suffer some bad luck, with a 64.7% strand rate and a .334 BABIP, so it shouldn't be surprising to see him bounce back as long as he's healthy (knock on wood). He still won't give you an edge in the strikeout category, but Wacha is talented enough to help nearly everywhere else.

 

Overrated Players - Week 8

Logan Forsythe (2B, LAD) 40% owned

With news that Forsythe will come off the DL by Tuesday, he may seem like a desirable waiver pickup this week, but why? He was a somewhat trendy pre-season pick once it was discovered he would move to L.A. It turns out playing for the Dodgers isn't enough to make Forsythe a fantasy force; they've only scored nine more runs than Tampa Bay at this point in the season. His .295 average and .407 on-base percentage are good, but he's got no homers, no steals, and three RBI.

Forsythe smacked a career-high 20 HR last season, but he also enjoyed a career-high 9.7% HR/FB rate. The worst news is that replacement Chris Taylor has been raking in his absence, hitting .324 with 15 RBI in 74 at-bats. Forsythe will temporarily man third base now that Justin Turner is on the shelf, but may have to fight for at-bats after that. There are several replacement-level players that can produce numbers similar to Forsythe, so don't scramble to add him expecting a sudden power surge.

Stephen Piscotty (OF, STL) 60% owned

I generally try to avoid naming players who are injured on this list, because you can't claim someone as overrated based on poor health. In this case, I'm simply calling him overowned and advising the 60% who still have Piscotty to consider cutting bait, unless you are in a keeper league and have him at a low price. Piscotty was impressive in his second season, producing 22 HR and 85 RBI with a .305 average. He was never a shoo-in to replicate those numbers, however, as it was his first 20-homer season as a professional.

Piscotty is down to .241 with only two homers so far, although his BABIP is a bit suppressed at .283. If anything, his plate discipline is much improved, but his extra base rates are going down. The average may climb, but it's not clear the power will come back enough to make him an OF3 in mixed leagues.

Matt Harvey (SP, NYM) 78% owned

This isn't about Harvey's supposed lack of commitment to his team or any of that nonsense. Harvey has been healthy enough to make eight starts and avoid the DL so far, but there are some disturbing trends continuing in what should have been his bounce back season.

Even before last season's debacle, it should have been noted that Harvey's strikeout rate has declined steadily every year since he was a rookie, from 28.6% in 2012 down to 15.4% in 2017. Accordingly, his walk rate has increased every season since 2013, up to 11% this year. Finally, his HR/9 rate, which was once a league-best 0.4 in his All-Star season, has inflated up to 2.2. If you've been holding on this long in hopes of seeing the Dark Knight of old, it may be time to put that dream to bed.

 

More Risers and Fallers

 

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POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Shaedon Sharpe

Blazers Agree on a Contract Extension
Jayden Daniels

Won't Return in Week 7
Kevin Durant

Lands Two-Year Contract Extension with Houston
George Springer

Returns to Lineup for Game 6 of ALCS
Domantas Sabonis

to Miss at Least a Few Games, Will be Re-Evaluated in One Week
Jayden Daniels

Questionable to Return in Week 7 Against Cowboys
Spencer Knight

Takes on Ducks Sunday
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Sharks Place Shakir Mukhamadullin on Injured Reserve
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Exits With Injury Sunday
Jonathan Lekkerimaki

Suffers Injury Sunday
Chris Olave

Scores Twice While Evading Injury
Filip Chytil

Injured on Sunday
Teddy Blueger

Hurt in Sunday's WIn
A.J. Brown

Back on Track With Two Touchdowns Sunday
Quinshon Judkins

Capitalizes on Favorable Matchup, Scores Three Times
Jason Dickinson

Remains Out Sunday
DeVonta Smith

Explodes for 183 Yards in Eagles' Big Offensive Showing
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Saints Concerned About Kendre Miller's Knee Injury
Bryce Young

Undergoing Tests on Ankle
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Colorado State Fires Head Coach Jay Norvell After Four Seasons
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Florida Fires Head Coach Billy Napier After Four Years
Bryce Young

Won't Return in Week 7
Tua Tagovailoa

Benched, Replaced By Quinn Ewers
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Questionable to Return Against Jets
Darren Waller

Won't Return in Week 7
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Won't Return Against Bears
Tyrod Taylor

Justin Fields Benched at Halftime, Replaced by Tyrod Taylor
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Ready to Go for Week 7
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Questionable to Return in Week 7
Maxx Crosby

Doubtful to Return With Knee Injury
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Davante Adams

Catches Three Touchdowns As Rams Cruise
Matthew Stafford

Throws Five Touchdowns in London Rout
Emeka Egbuka

Has Chance to Play in Week 7
Nils Lundkvist

Expected to Miss Time
Pierre-Luc Dubois

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Jacob Bryson

in Concussion Protocol
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Ross Chastain

Poor Qualifying Makes him a Strong DFS Option at Talladega
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Ty Gibbs

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Might Contend at Talladega
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Doesn't Lead Enough at Talladega to Contend for Wins
Frederick Gaudreau

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Patrick Kane

Ruled Out for Sunday
Noah Hanifin

Not Ready to Return Saturday
Brandon Montour

Takes Leave of Absence
Joel Kiviranta

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Hampus Lindholm

a Game-Time Call Saturday
Rob Dillingham

Timberwolves Exercise Team Option on Rob Dillingham
Scotty Pippen Jr.

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Knicks Cut Ties with Garrison Mathews
Dallas Mavericks

Dalano Banton Waived by the Mavericks
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Precious Achiuwa Waived by Miami
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Mavericks Waive Dennis Smith Jr.
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Has Multi-Point Outing Friday
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Bradley Beal

Set to Make Clippers Debut in Preseason Finale
Marlon Vera

Returns At UFC Vancouver
VJ Edgecombe

Set to Return for Preseason Finale
Jeremy Sochan

Won't Play in Season Opener
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
AJ Green

Bucks Agree to Contract Extension
Manon Fiorot

Looks To Bounce Back
Aoriqileng

Aori Aoriqileng Looks To Rebound
Cody Gibson

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Jaylen Brown

Considered Day-to-Day with Hamstring Tightness
Kyle Nelson

Set For Lightweight Bout
Matt Frevola

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Jaden Ivey

Will Miss Four Weeks After Knee Surgery
Paul George

Expected to Miss Season Opener
Joel Embiid

Set to Make Preseason Debut on Friday
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Curt Cignetti Signs Eight-Year, $11.6 Million Extension With Indiana
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Unlikely to Be Ready for Opening Day After Elbow Surgery
Anthony Santander

Removed From ALCS Roster With Back Injury
Jackson Chourio

Aggravates Hamstring, Pulled Early in Game 3 of NLCS
Aaron Judge

Will Not Need Elbow Surgery
Anthony Volpe

Won't be Ready for Start of Next Season
Gerrit Cole

Won't be Ready for Opening Day Next Year
Milwaukee Bucks

Chris Livingston Waived by the Bucks
Keegan Murray

Nique Clifford Shines in Keegan Murray's Absence
Cooper Flagg

Continues to Start at Point Guard
Ron Harper Jr.

Earns a Two-Way Deal with the Celtics
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Jermod McCoy Officially Out for Alabama Matchup
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Jam Miller Questionable to Face Tennessee
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Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt Probable For Saturday
Anthony Volpe

Undergoes Left-Shoulder Surgery
CFB

Jayden Gibson No Longer with Oklahoma Program
Emmanuel Clase

to be Banished for Life After Gambling Allegations?
Alex Bregman

Plans to Opt Out of Contract With Red Sox
Christopher Bell

Sits Third in Points After Quiet Third-Place Finish
Chase Briscoe

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Falling Out of Playoff Picture Despite Other Contenders' Crashes
Ryan Blaney

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Struggles to Gain A Solid Finish at Las Vegas After Pit-Road Penalty
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Strong Run Ends In A Wreck at Las Vegas

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