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Buy or Sell - Underowned and Overowned Players for Week 3

After two weeks, we're starting to get a sense of which players had a couple of good games early on and who is legitimately off to a hot start in 2017. I'm all in on the Reds at the moment, but since I've already advocated for Eugenio Suarez and Jose Peraza plenty, I'll look for some other names here.

Scouting players who may be undervalued and re-assessing players who may be overvalued is a weekly exercise that you should pursue. Fortunately, I have you covered. Here are a few players who are good buy or sell candidates based on their current performance compared to ownership levels. This could mean scooping them off waivers if possible or actively seeking a trade to acquire or discard certain players in order to maximize value.

Early in the season, my values will be based more on ADP than performance due to small sample size. I will include at least one player at each key position group (Infield, Outfield, Starter, Reliever). Ownership levels are taken from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Underrated Players - Week 3

Brandon Phillips (2B, ATL) 23% owned

The Reds had been trying to trade Phillips for years and fantasy owners had gotten into the habit of ignoring him outright since 2014 when he had a disappointing showing. All he did was hit .294 and .291 the last two seasons with double-digit totals in homers and steals, along with 60+ runs and RBI. At age 35, his best years are well behind him, but Phillips still retains a fairly high floor. We don't know what Atlanta's new stadium will be like for hitters just yet, but it's unlikely to be as hitter-friendly as the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. That shouldn't stop Phillips from posting strong OBP numbers and contributing across multiple categories as usual. He's already got an 0.67 BB/K, which would be the best of his career by far. He hasn't gone deep yet, but seeing him near the top of the stolen base leaders with three in just two weeks is a very good sign. Phillips is a great MI option in 12+ team leagues and should be added in all such leagues.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, MIA) 89% owned

When you see Marcell Ozuna's name at the top of the leaderboard for RBI with 16, you may think this is a great time to sell high. Not so fast, my friend. Ozuna was an All-Star last season based on the strength of his outstanding first half in which he hit .307 with 17 HR, 47 RBI, and 52 R. He wasn't nearly the same in the second half, hitting almost 100 points lower with just six homers the rest of the way. Despite logging 607 at-bats and never seeing the DL, he may have been bothered by a nagging wrist injury, according to reports. Ozuna's hot hand shouldn't be dismissed - if anything this may be the time to field offers from an Ozuna owner who thinks he's netting a profit by unloading him.

Gerrit Cole (SP, PIT) 96% owned

It's funny how quickly some people were ready to write off Cole after one rough start at Fenway Park. It was an ugly game to be sure, as he gave up five ER in five innings on Opening Day, striking out just two batters. After the first inning of his next start, the Twitter world seemed ready to outright Cole back to Indianapolis, when he allowed two runs, including a homer to Dansby Swanson. He settled down to earn a quality start, if not a victory. His third start went even better, as he held the defending champion Cubs (I'll never get used to saying that) to two runs, six hits and one walk over six IP. He's never been an elite strikeout pitcher, but he can get to 200 over the course of a full season and he's shown a characteristically low BB/9 (2.12) as usual. Put out some feelers for Cole because his stock won't get much lower than it is at the moment, considering he's the #1 arm on a fairly good team.

Cam Bedrosian (RP, LAA) - 74% owned

If not for Mike Scioscia's stubbornness, Bedrock would have been a top-15 closer candidate before the season even started. Skepticism over Bedrosian's role has kept his ownership just below three-fourths, but we have to take the long-term approach when evaluating this situation. Huston Street has no business pitching in the ninth inning these days. He is yet to recover from a Grade 1 lat strain and even when he returns he will have to prove that last year's horrible ratios (6.45 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 1.17 K/BB) were an aberration. Bedrosian, by contrast, has been flawless in his three appearances this season and has raised last year's 31.5% K% up to 41.7%. When all is said and done, Bedrosian should outperform many mid-tier closers that were drafted several rounds earlier.

 

Overrated Players - Week 3

Javier Baez (2B/3B/SS, CHC) 87% owned

To be clear, I am a big fan of Baez as a player and a person, just not in fantasy. On any other team, Baez would have a chance to show off his power, along with the accompanying strikeouts, on a regular basis. In Chicago, he is simply a utility player that sees about two AB per game. The bottom line is that his upside is limited to his power potential and he won't possibly hit as many as 20 HR in his current role. He's a .243 hitter in the majors, he whiffs on nearly 30% of his at-bats and he's only stolen as many as 20 bases once in his career, which came in Single-A. To think that he was taken before Jake Lamb and a full 150 picks before Eugenio Suarez or Yangeris Solarte in NFBC drafts should make you realize that the big market bias affects us all, and not for the better.

Joc Pederson (OF, LAD) 83% owned

Last week, I compared Pederson unfavorably to Nomar Mazara in an effort to show how Mazara would provide better value in every category other than homers. Pederson went off in an Opening Day rout of the Padres, jacking his first homer early on and driving in five. Since then, he has one RBI in eight games and more strikeouts (eight) than hits (five). Pederson isn't quite Chris Carter, but he does remind one of Rob Deer far too often, providing barely more than double the RBI total per home run. His current .250 average is higher than he's hit during his Major League tenure, so there isn't much more to look forward to. If you can keep him as a third or fourth outfielder in a deep league and offset his low average with the rest of your squad, by all means keep him. If you'd rather get more bang for your buck across other categories, you might want to deal him to another owner who still thinks his best is yet to come.

Zack Greinke (SP, ARI) 97% owned

I've been selling Greinke since Spring Training and will continue to do so. Greinke's first couple starts had his owners breathing a sigh of relief and many proclaiming last year was just an outlier. Then, he slipped in his showdown against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers, allowing five ER in five innings. It's true that Greinke's velocity is down at least half a mile per hour and he wasn't even clocked as high as 90 in the spring. His slider has seen an even bigger dip at four MPH less than 2015, before he came to the desert. Here's visual proof, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

That alone may not be enough to avoid him, but the fact that opposing hitters keep making higher contact rates and Chase Field seems to be the new Coors should be.

Joaquin Benoit (RP, PHI) 49% owned

Few people expected that the 36-year old Benoit would be one of the hottest adds in the early part of season. In one of my leagues, someone went so far as to spend $40 of FAAB to acquire him (a keeper league no less!). As it turns out, the Phillies decided to bequeath the closer role to Benoit rather than young flamethrower Hector Neris once Jeanmar Gomez imploded. The problem is that Benoit won't be good for more than two months of value, max. The club is likely trying to increase the reliever's value in order to get a better return once he is flipped before the trade deadline. Neris should then take over permanently. Even so, you should temper expectations with what Benoit can deliver. He has delivered better ratios in the later years of his career, but be warned that he walked 4.5 per nine innings last season and is on his fourth team in three season for a reason.




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaren Jackson Jr.

Busy in Preseason Debut
Keegan Murray

Lands Five-Year, $140 Million Extension
Domantas Sabonis

Sustains Hamstring Injury Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

"Fine" Following Wednesday's Early Exit
CFB

Arizona State QB Sam Leavitt Probable For Saturday
Jake Walman

to Remain Out Thursday
Dmitry Kulikov

to Miss Five Months Following Surgery
Darcy Kuemper

Day-to-Day With Lower-Body Injury
Anze Kopitar

Listed as Day-to-Day
Jacob Markstrom

Out for "Couple of Weeks"
Kevon Looney

Slated to be Sidelined With Knee Injury
Nick Foligno

Out on Wednesday
Lucas Raymond

Misses Wednesday's Game
Malcolm Brogdon

Calling it a Career After Nine NBA Seasons
Sacramento Kings

Russell Westbrook Inks Deal With Kings
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Open 21-Day Practice Window for Khalik Mack
Quentin Johnston

Will Practice Wednesday
Travis Hunter

Jaguars Plan to Expand Travis Hunter's Role on Offense
Anthony Volpe

Undergoes Left-Shoulder Surgery
Deshaun Watson

"a Good Month Away" From Practicing
CFB

Jayden Gibson No Longer with Oklahoma Program
David Njoku

Not Practicing Wednesday
Rashee Rice

Chiefs "Allocating a Heavy Workload" for Rashee Rice Right Away
Puka Nacua

a "Long Shot" to Play in Week 7
Emeka Egbuka

is Expected to Miss Week 7
Jalen Suggs

Participates in Contact Drills
Mark Williams

Progresses to Five-on-Five Work
Gary Harris

to Miss 1-2 Weeks
De'Andre Hunter

Sustains Knee Contusion Tuesday
Karlo Matković

Karlo Matkovic Hurts Elbow in Loss to Houston
Jalen Duren

Returns to Action Against Cavaliers
Stuart Skinner

Records Eighth Career Shutout
Matthew Knies

Dishes Out Three Assists in Tuesday's Win
Maxwell Crozier

Likely Out on Friday
Brett Howden

Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Adin Hill

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Versus Flames
Matt Duchene

Injured in Tuesday's Win
Emmanuel Clase

to be Banished for Life After Gambling Allegations?
Alex Bregman

Plans to Opt Out of Contract With Red Sox
Jalen Green

Reinjures Hamstring, Will be Reevaluated in 10 Days
Trey Murphy III

Set to Suit Up Tuesday
Joel Embiid

Could Play in Friday's Preseason Finale
Alexey Toropchenko

to Remain Out Wednesday
Jake Walman

Targeting Season Debut for Thursday
Zach Benson

Expected to Make Season Debut Wednesday
Paul George

Participates in Team Activities During Practice on Tuesday
Steven Lorentz

Misses Tuesday's Action
Jaccob Slavin

Unavailable Versus Sharks
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Out on Tuesday
Kris Letang

a Game-Time Call Tuesday
Brady Tkachuk

Expected to Miss at Least One Month
CeeDee Lamb

"Looking Good" for Week 7
Kevin Huerter

Could Be an Option Thursday
Tre Jones

Nursing a Foot Problem
Marcus Smart

Set for Lakers Debut Tuesday
Jimmy Butler III

Sits Out Tuesday's Preseason Game
D'Andre Swift

Breaks Out for 175 Total Yards and Touchdown in Win
Drake London

Explodes for 158 Yards and Touchdown in Win Over Bills
Bijan Robinson

Erupts for 238 Total Yards and Touchdown Against Bills
Christopher Bell

Sits Third in Points After Quiet Third-Place Finish
Chase Briscoe

Passes Denny Hamlin at the Start, but Hamlin Gets Him in the End
Joey Logano

Falling Out of Playoff Picture Despite Other Contenders' Crashes
Ryan Blaney

Stage 1 Crash Puts Ryan Blaney in Severe Playoff Trouble
Denny Hamlin

Wins at Las Vegas and Will Compete for the 2025 Cup Series Title
Kyle Larson

Dominates at Las Vegas but Ends Up Second
Chase Elliott

Struggles to Gain A Solid Finish at Las Vegas After Pit-Road Penalty
William Byron

Strong Run Ends In A Wreck at Las Vegas
Garrett Wilson

Expected to Miss "a Couple of Weeks" With Hyperextended Knee
Dalton Kincaid

Ruled Out for Monday Night
CFB

Sam Leavitt Viewed as Day-to-Day with Undisclosed Injury
Anthony Santander

Scratched From Game 2 of ALCS With Back Tightness
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Expected to Play on Monday Night
Brock Bowers

Could Sit for the "Long Haul"
CeeDee Lamb

has a Chance to Play in Week 7
San Diego Padres

Mike Shildt Retires as a Manager
Tennessee Titans

Titans Fire Head Coach Brian Callahan
Mateusz Gamrot

Suffers Second-Round Submission Loss
Charles Oliveira

Gets Back In The Win Column
Montel Jackson

Drops Decision
Deiveson Figueiredo

Gets Split-Decision Victory
Vicente Luque

Outclassed
Vicente Luque

Joel Alvarez Outclasses Vicente Luque
Jhonata Diniz

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mario Pinto

Remains Undefeated
CFB

Matt Rhule Denying Interest in Penn State Head Coaching Job
CFB

Le'Veon Moss Not Believed to Have Suffered Season-Ending Injury
Ricardo Ramos

Suffers First-Round Submission Loss
Chris Godwin

Not Expected to Return in Week 7
Bucky Irving

Not Expected to Return in Week 7
Puka Nacua

Rams Think Puka Nacua has Avoided a Long-Term Injury
Kaan Ofli

Scores Comeback Win
CFB

Bill Belichick Says he's Committed to North Carolina
Tiger Woods

Undergoes Back Surgery
CFB

UAB Fires Head Coach Trent Dilfer After 2.5 Seasons In Birmingham
CFB

Penn State Fires Head Coach James Franklin After 10.5 Seasons
CFB

Penn State QB Drew Allar Will Miss The Rest Of 2025 Season With Ankle Injury
Brandon Woodruff

Will Not be on NLCS Roster
Max Scherzer

Added to ALCS Roster
Bryan Woo

Makes ALCS Roster
Bo Bichette

Won't Make ALCS Roster
Christopher Bell

the Favorite to Win at Las Vegas
Denny Hamlin

on the Pole at Las Vegas
Joey Logano

Can Joey Logano Get Lucky in Las Vegas Again?
William Byron

has the Fastest Car in Practice at Las Vegas
Ty Gibbs

Speed of Ty Gibbs a Good Sign for Toyota at Las Vegas
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Should Contend at Las Vegas
Ross Chastain

Scrapes Wall in Practice But Qualifies 15th at Las Vegas
Chris Buescher

Looking for Improvement at Las Vegas
Austin Cindric

It Has Been Hit or Miss for Austin Cindric at Las Vegas
Chase Elliott

Should Run Well at Las Vegas
Kyle Larson

Conservatism May Keep him from Replicating Previous Las Vegas Drive
Josh Berry

After Josh Berry's Las Vegas Win, Ryan Blaney Should be a Top Contender
Chase Briscoe

has Definitely Improved on Intermediate Tracks
Gleyber Torres

Will Undergo Surgery to Repair Sports Hernia
Bryan Woo

Expected to be on Mariners' ALCS Roster
CFB

CJ Baxter to Miss Saturday's Game Against No. 6 Oklahoma
CFB

Syracuse QB Steve Angeli Will Miss Significant Time
Cody Bellinger

Plans to Opt Out of Contract
MLB

Munetaka Murakami Will be Posted This Winter
Nathan Eovaldi

has Hernia Surgery, Should be Ready for Spring Training
Mateusz Gamrot

Set For UFC Rio Main Event
Charles Oliveira

Returns At UFC Rio
Montel Jackson

Set For UFC Rio Co-Main Event
Deiveson Figueiredo

Returns At UFC Rio
Joel Álvarez

Joel Alvarez Set for his Welterweight Debut
Vicente Luque

A Huge Underdog
Mario Pinto

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Jhonata Diniz

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kaan Ofli

Looks To Secure His First Octagon Win
Ricardo Ramos

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Michael Aswell

Looks For His First UFC Win
CFB

North Carolina's Caleb Hood Retiring from College Football
CFB

Jeff Sims Likely to Start Against Utah

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