Welcome back to our second round of 2016 fantasy baseball rankings. This is the conclusion to our section on starting pitchers. If you missed Part 1 yesterday, click here. Today’s analysis will cover the remaining tiers, in which there are plenty of interesting arms.

As a reminder, this round of rankings features seven of our experts. They are Brad Johnson, Max Petrie, Harris Yudin, Jeff Kahntroff, Bill Dubiel, Nick Mariano, and yours truly. Assume a standard 5x5 redraft league when reading.

Be sure to also check out all of our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings articles. We have rankings and tiers across all positions, for MLB prospects, and for dynasty/keeper leagues.

 

Starting Pitcher Rankings Analysis (Part 2)

Tier Seven

This tier features three veterans on whom I am markedly pessimistic – Wei-Yin Chen, Andrew Cashner, and Julio Teheran. Chen is a perfectly serviceable mid-rotation arm, but his lack of whiffs and issues with the long ball severely limit his fantasy value. Maybe moving to a friendly league and park will help, but I’m not really interested in betting on that. I correctly identified Teheran as a bust candidate a year ago, and while he gained back a bit of the lost velocity that was a driving force of that prediction, his results didn’t improve much. His strikeout rate remained merely decent, and his walks and homers spiked. As for Cashner, it feels like he’s been a popular breakout pick since before baseball was invented. The guy will be 30 this year. Guess how many seasons he has with an ERA under 4.00 and a K/9 north of 7.00 in 180 innings? If you guessed “none,” you are a winner. He finally broke the latter barrier last season and put up a solid 8.04 K/9, but six wins and a 4.34 ERA ain’t gonna cut it. Hard pass.

Tier Eight

I’m the resident optimist on Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani ‘round these parts. DeSclafani got stronger as the season wore on; all caveats about small sample size aside, his peripherals certainly supported it. He’ll need to maintain the improvement he showed in his off-speed pitches to justify my expectant ranking. Wood’s struggles in the early part of last season were well-documented, but he’s got a much more favorable team and defense context now. I also expect him to quit throwing that awful two-seamer so much if it doesn’t offer dramatically better returns this season, which should help his strikeout rate rebound.

Two other pitchers to keep an eye on in this group: Ian Kennedy and Kevin Gausman. Kennedy signing with the Royals was probably the best possible outcome for him this offseason; assuming his homer rate isn’t ludicrous again, he’ll pile up Ks without dragging you down anywhere else. Gausman has shown flashes of elite potential in parts of three seasons and is still just 25. He’s got impressive control for a young power pitcher and induces a lot of pop-ups, which gives him a good foundation.

Tier Nine

Not a whole lot of exciting names in this tier, from my vantage point. I do appear to be slightly more bullish on Mat Latos than my fellow RotoBaller experts, which is somewhat surprising. Last season, he recovered a bit of the velocity he’d lost in 2014 and posted similar peripherals to his career marks. The inflated ERA was mostly due to a ludicrously low 63.8% strand rate, which should regress considerably.

Tier Ten

This group includes three pitchers I like more than most who fell a couple of tiers because Brad didn’t even rank them (how rude). J.A. Happ was a revelation after joining the Pirates. Going back to Toronto probably wasn’t the best decision for him from a pure baseball perspective. Pittsburgh would have been ideal, but money talks, particularly when you’re 33 and coming off a high-profile run of dominance. Ray Searage is pretty much a god at this point; it stands to reason that he helped Happ at least a little. I’m also a fan of Erasmo Ramirez and Nate Karns. Ramirez bombed in his first two starts with Seattle, then got traded to Tampa and put together a sneaky good season, finishing just outside the top 40 starters in the Yahoo game. Karns, meanwhile, was traded from Tampa to Seattle immediately after finishing a rookie season in which he struck out nearly a batter per inning. The Rays somewhat infamously featured a quick hook with most of their starters to avoid the third time through the order penalty. As a result, Karns averaged less than six innings per start, which limited his fantasy value. We’ll see what happens when and if the Mariners take off the kid gloves, but he should be a decent streamer at worst and a solid deep-league option based solely on whiffs.

Tier Eleven

Finally, we get to a tier which contains a pitcher I didn’t rank – Chris Heston. Heston was one of 2015’s biggest surprises, posting a 3.14 ERA through the first four months and tossing a no-hitter against the eventual National League champion Mets. He hit the rookie wall hard, though, as his ERA after the trade deadline was a hideous 5.92. With the additions of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to the Giants rotation, Heston appears to be the team’s sixth starter. Granted, one of the five ahead of him is Matt Cain, so he’ll probably get plenty of innings anyway. Still, tough to rank a guy who doesn’t even have a firm grip on a job, even before weighing his horrid finish and lack of pedigree.

Tier Twelve

Hey, remember when Doug Fister was good? How about R.A. Dickey? C.C. Sabathia? They were, I swear! Not so much these days. They’re the players your league’s resident doormat will grab in the late rounds or dollar days, while you’re using those opportunities to draft upside like a sensible fantasy owner. There are a couple of those upside plays in this group, namely John Lamb and Mike Foltynewicz (whose name I am kind of unreasonably proud to have spelled correctly without looking it up).

Tier Thirteen

Notable names in this tier: Cain, Matt Moore, Jered Weaver, C.J. Wilson (pass on all of them). Intriguing sleepers: Vincent Velasquez, Adam Conley, Trevor May, and Homer Bailey.

Our January rankings conclude tomorrow with a look at relievers. We’ll be releasing updates in February and March as well, so stay tuned!

 

Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2016 Fantasy Baseball

Rank	Tier	Name	Brad	Max	Kyle	Nick	Harris	Jeff	Bill
1	1	Clayton Kershaw	1	1	1	1	1	1	1
2	2	Max Scherzer	3	2	2	2	2	3	4
3	2	Chris Sale	4	3	3	3	3	4	2
4	2	Jake Arrieta	2	5	4	4	12	5	3
5	2	Jose Fernandez	7	4	7	6	6	2	10
6	2	Zack Greinke	5	6	9	5	5	9	5
7	2	David Price	9	7	6	8	4	7	8
8	2	Jacob deGrom	10	8	5	7	10	6	6
9	3	Madison Bumgarner	11	11	10	10	7	10	13
10	3	Dallas Keuchel	6	9	11	9	18	17	7
11	3	Gerrit Cole	14	14	8	13	11	14	9
12	3	Felix Hernandez	8	10	18	11	13	18	14
13	3	Chris Archer	15	13	12	16	14	16	11
14	3	Corey Kluber	13	12	14	14	19	13	12
15	3	Noah Syndergaard	12	15	17	17	15	8	15
16	3	Stephen Strasburg	18	21	13	12	8	12	16
17	3	Matt Harvey	17	16	15	18	9	15	18
18	3	Carlos Carrasco	16	17	16	15	22	11	17
19	4	Jon Lester	19	22	19	21	24	19	20
20	4	Cole Hamels	25	19	21	19	20	25	21
21	4	Johnny Cueto	21	23	20	26	17	20	23
22	4	Sonny Gray	23	18	24	24	16	27	19
23	4	Adam Wainwright	20	20	26	20	26	26	25
24	4	Carlos Martinez	22	24	23	23	28	21	24
25	4	Yu Darvish	26	28	22	22	32	22	22
26	4	Tyson Ross	24	25	31	30	21	24	30
27	4	Danny Salazar	28	26	25	27	36	23	28
28	4	Marcus Stroman	31	32	27	28	23	33	31
29	4	Francisco Liriano	27	33	29	29	27	28	36
30	5	Masahiro Tanaka	40	27	35	25	33	34	29
31	5	Michael Wacha	38	30	33	32	31	36	32
32	5	Jordan Zimmermann	29	31	38	34	25	53	27
33	5	Jose Quintana	32	37	30	36	29	46	34
34	5	Luis Severino	30	29	44	33	40	49	26
35	5	Jake Odorizzi	33	41	32	42	35	30	39
36	5	Scott Kazmir	37	34	37	39	38	39	33
37	5	Garrett Richards	39	38	39	37	37	38	37
38	5	Lance McCullers	35	51	28	41	51	31	40
39	5	Michael Pineda	52	36	41	31	43	44	35
40	5	Patrick Corbin	43	47	34	35	54	29	42
41	5	Jeff Samardzija	36	43	46	49	34	37	49
42	6	Justin Verlander	41	49	51	43	46	32	46
43	6	Shelby Miller	51	35	54	46	30	61	38
44	6	Steven Matz	64	39	47	39	50	40	44
45	6	Gio Gonzalez	45	46	50	47	45	47	45
46	6	John Lackey	34	48	56	45	47	50	55
47	6	Hyun-Jin Ryu	49	45	48	59	53	48	47
48	6	James Shields	61	42	58	54	44	41	52
49	6	Raisel Iglesias	60	55	43	44	52	51	51
50	6	Clay Buchholz	42	53	42	48	59	56	56
51	6	Collin McHugh	46	50	52	51	57	54	50
52	6	Alex Cobb	44	44	49	58	58	71	41
53	6	Yordano Ventura	53	47	53	52	56	58	48
54	6	Drew Smyly	66	46	57	55	49	35	60
55	6	Hisashi Iwakuma	55	56	40	53	48	60	58
56	6	Jaime Garcia	48	52	64	40	78	67	43
57	6	Carlos Rodon	71	61	59	57	41	45	64
58	6	Joe Ross	89	40	36	38	77	62	57
59	6	Taijuan Walker	70	67	45	56	42	65	54
60	6	Kyle Hendricks	62	63	55	60	62	42	62
61	7	Wei-Yin Chen	54	54	74	61	60	52	63
62	7	Eduardo Rodriguez	58	57	62	62	68	59	61
63	7	Andrew Cashner	50	60	73	50	65	72	59
64	7	Julio Teheran	63	59	72	67	39	63	66
65	7	Nathan Eovaldi	47	74	60	65	74	70	68
66	7	Brett Anderson	57	58	70	63	76	66	78
67	7	Andrew Heaney	59	65	65	69	80	68	65
68	7	Anibal Sanchez	67	68	67	70	63	74	74
69	7	Jason Hammel	72	70	63	72	83	73	53
70	8	Robbie Ray	56	69	61	66	88	76	71
71	8	Aaron Nola	68	62	69	76	72	75	72
72	8	Jimmy Nelson	69	66	76	68	73	77	73
73	8	Marco Estrada	65	64	71	77	75	78	76
74	8	Mike Fiers	71	80	75	98	66	43	84
75	8	Alex Wood	81	77	68	82	55	79	79
76	8	Ian Kennedy	77	75	78	73	67	81	77
77	8	Kevin Gausman	83	76	79	85	71	64	70
78	8	Anthony DeSclafani	86	91	66	71	97	80	69
79	8	Mike Leake	84	78	87	89	64	82	85
80	8	Trevor Bauer	95	72	85	84	106	90	67
81	9	Wade Miley	74	98	92	103	95	69	103
82	9	Henry Owens	88	94	91	75	119	91	80
83	9	Jesse Hahn	105	71	109	80	77	112	88
84	9	Yovani Gallardo	91	89	102	102	61	115	87
85	9	James Paxton	85	103	96	97	90	83	99
86	9	Jake Peavy	111	97	84	94	99	87	81
87	9	Edinson Volquez	82	84	94	99	96	111	90
88	9	Mat Latos	112	96	82	87	102	102	92
89	9	Ervin Santana	106	87	99	81	112	110	86
90	9	Jerad Eickhoff	96	100	95	88	118	95	95
91	10	Phil Hughes	110	90	103	93	101	107	100
92	10	Tyler Duffey	78	82	111	108	120	109	96
93	10	Zack Wheeler	104	85	105	107	89	116	98
94	10	Chris Tillman	92	103	115	106	84	100	106
95	10	Rick Porcello	76	122	98	104	93	104	115
96	10	Kyle Gibson	75	110	100	100	108	118	104
97	10	Danny Duffy	107	104	114	112	107	103	113
98	10	Hector Santiago	114	112	119	116	82	106	110
99	10	Kenta Maeda	80	79	101	64	92	55	-
100	10	J.A. Happ	-	93	83	79	87	86	102
101	10	Erasmo Ramirez	-	95	77	74	114	92	83
102	10	Nate Karns	-	81	80	92	115	93	82
103	11	Josh Tomlin	87	102	108	119	-	98	105
104	11	Derek Holland	73	86	97	101	-	-	89
105	11	Erik Johnson	101	83	90	90	-	89	91
106	11	Taylor Jungmann	109	92	88	86	-	88	75
107	11	Ubaldo Jimenez	90	99	93	96	98	-	93
108	11	Matt Shoemaker	94	113	113	115	-	99	114
109	11	Kris Medlen	-	73	89	113	86	96	116
110	11	Rubby de la Rosa	100	101	104	91	-	101	117
111	11	Chris Heston	116	88	-	83	91	-	94
112	11	Drew Hutchison	-	111	81	78	-	94	107
113	11	Jesse Chavez	-	-	86	95	109	105	108
114	11	Joe Kelly	79	123	110	117	113	-	-
115	12	Daniel Norris	97	105	-	105	70	97	109
116	12	Wily Peralta	115	106	123	109	-	121	118
117	12	Chase Anderson	113	108	-	118	-	114	-
118	12	Jonathan Gray	99	109	122	120	85	-	-
119	12	John Lamb	-	121	120	-	104	85	-
120	12	CC Sabathia	108	-	116	-	-	-	119
121	12	Doug Fister	-	114	-	111	103	120	-
122	12	Martin Perez	-	115	124	-	105	-	-
123	12	Nicholas Tropeano	93	-	112	-	-	108	-
124	12	R.A. Dickey	-	107	-	-	-	119	111
125	12	Mike Foltynewicz	-	-	106	-	-	117	-
126	13	Homer Bailey	-	117	125	-	81	-	-
127	13	Matt Cain	-	113	-	114	-	-	-
128	13	Vincent Velasquez	-	124	121	-	-	57	-
129	13	Matt Moore	-	116	-	-	69	-	-
130	13	Trevor May	-	125	117	-	-	-	120
131	13	CJ Wilson	-	118	-	-	94	-	-
132	13	Jeremy Hellickson	98	121	-	-	-	-	112
133	13	Adam Conley	-	-	107	-	-	84	-
134	13	Matt Wisler	-	119	-	-	116	-	-
135	13	Jered Weaver	-	120	-	-	117	-	-
136	13	Jorge de la Rosa	-	-	-	-	111	-	-
137	13	Matt Boyd	102	-	-	-	-	-	-
138	13	Miguel Gonzalez	-	122	-	-	110	-	-
139	13	Chris Bassitt	-	-	-	-	-	113	-
140	13	Brett Oberholtzer	117	-	-	-	-	-	-
141	13	Tanner Roark	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

 

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