RADIO
Mike's Week 11 college football betting picks against the spread for Saturday, November 14, 2026. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.
I finally gained a little ground back, but it has still been a trying season. MACtion was great last week, but this week isn't going quite as well. At least there are some games that I'm ready to put some wagers on for Saturday. Let's have another good week!
We tip the scales with 56 games on Saturday. If you have questions about these games that I don't cover here, you can jump into our Discord channel, and I can try to help you out. You can also reach out to me on X at @mikemarteny.
Last week had a lot of good matchups, and most of them were entertaining. This week, we have the original Holy War (Boston College-Notre Dame). We have the Darian Mensah Bowl (Duke-Miami). We have the Rodney Dangerfield Bowl of teams that get no respect (Wake and SMU). It's a Purple Out in Fort Worth with K-State in town. Pour one out for Michigan-Oregon. That was going to be a HUGE game in August. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are going to break the scoreboard in Stillwater. It's going to be a fun week!
Featured Promo: Get any College Football Premium Pass for 50% off and win more using code CHAMP. Exclusive access to our industry-leading DFS Lineup Optimizer, DFS Cheat Sheets and Premium Discord Chat rooms. Go Premium, Win More!
CFB Betting Picks for Week 11
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds for each game, average them across all Vegas casinos, and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly.
I've had trouble finding the 2019 and 2020 articles, so the page is still under construction. All of the picks from 2014-2018 and 2021-2025 are accurate and accounted for. The all-time totals are still under construction, but for now I'll omit 2019 and 2020.
If any of you know how to recover old WordPress documents or how to get back into broken internet links, I would love to hear from you. Ideally, I would like to make my stats as complete as possible.
We've got a few really good spots, but the last two weeks have been the craziest since November of 2007. The only difference is that those 2007 games had massive consequences. Now they don't. Miami, Notre Dame, Utah, and BYU are all still in the CFP.
Duke at (7) Miami (FL) (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Duke has allowed five points in the last two games combined. I don't know if any of the incumbents are upset about Darian Mensah and Cooper Barkate abandoning the ACC Champions and chasing the bag in Coral Gables. We'll find out.
Pick: Duke +13.5
(13) Wake Forest at SMU (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Wake Forest is 8-1.
Their lone loss is competitively to Miami.
They have the 4th-best offense in the nation, averaging 43.3 points per game.
They beat 6-3 Louisville on the road.
They’ve beaten their last five opponents by a combined score of 264-31.
How is this team still not in the Top 10?
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 11, 2026
This line has swung five points since Sunday, which is a huge number. People are hammering SMU so hard that the Mustangs are now favorites. Fine by me. I liked Wake anyway.
Pick: Wake Forest +1.5
Northwestern at (20) Ohio State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Ohio State is not the 20th-best team in the country without Julian Sayin. Don't blame Luke Fahey. He has been solid. The defense is to blame for this meltdown.
Is it over? Even if it is, they would have had a hard time being two touchdowns better than Northwestern WITH Sayin. This line looks off.
Pick: Northwestern +13.5
Cincinnati at Iowa State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm a little surprised by this after Iowa State's complete meltdown in Waco after dominating the first half. Even though Cincinnati lost to Utah and Houston, they still played reasonably well.
This could be one of the best games of the day. I like Iowa State, but I'm probably leaving this alone. This game looks like a toss-up.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5
Auburn (-2.5) at Mississippi State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We know what Mississippi State is without Kamario Taylor. They are probably not a team capable of beating Auburn.
Pick: Auburn -2.5
Syracuse (-2.5) at North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Breaking: The NC State board of trustees is expected to finalize a contract Friday that will make former NFL quarterback Philip Rivers his alma mater’s new head football coach, sources tell @PeteThamel and Mark Schlabach. https://t.co/AK6KzQhRUY
— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 12, 2026
NC State has their new coach. Syracuse is trying to keep their current one.
Pick: Syracuse -2.5
Wisconsin (-8.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Wisconsin gave up on portal prize Colton Joseph after he beat USC, but was embarrassed by Iowa. Ryan Hopkins had a soft landing against Rutgers in his first start.
Maryland has been better, but this still looks low.
Pick: Wisconsin -8.5
James Madison (-4.5) at Connecticut
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The line went up above three early in the week; now it's sliding in spots. You can find it at -3, but you'll drown in juice. This feels like a game that UConn can win. I'm probably leaving this one alone.
Pick: James Madison -4.5
Georgia Tech at Clemson (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
These may be the most disappointing schools in a conference full of them. Man, that's a lot of points. Georgia Tech has been awful, but the last FBS team that Clemson beat by two touchdowns was Cal on September 25.
Is Georgia Tech worse than Cal? Uh...probably?
Pick: Clemson -13.5
Nebraska (-15.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Rutgers will cure your ailing offense. Take two touchdowns and call me in the morning.
Pick: Nebraska -15.5
(3) Alabama (-17.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I haven't seen anything from Vanderbilt that says they can hang around. No doubt this will be another "quality" win for Alabama.
Pick: Alabama -17.5
East Carolina (-12.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Doesn't this seem high? Charlotte hasn't lost by 13 points since Conner Harrell took over at quarterback.
Pick: Charlotte +12.5
UAB at Temple (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UAB just beat Charlotte, and Temple allowed a gazillion rushing yards to Navy. I don't know about this one.
Pick: UAB +2.5
Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Can Deuce Bailey quit throwing interceptions long enough to beat a team that just lost to Monroe? I freaking hope so!
Pick: Coastal Carolina -1.5
Kansas State at TCU (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
TCU is going to eat Blake Barnett alive.
Pick: TCU -10.5
Tulane at Rice (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Let this sink in. Rice is 1-8 and favored against a team that made the CFP last year. That is a microcosm of the issues with college football. Jon Sumrall left for Florida and took a few people with him.
Tulane lost to Tulsa by 50 at home last week. I should be shocked by this line, but I'm not. Rice has been trending in the right direction for a while, but this is too much of an overcorrection.
Pick: Tulane +2.5
Kennesaw State (-7.5) at Sam Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kennesaw just knocked Delaware out of a bowl game. This feels low.
Pick: Kennesaw State -7.5
(8) Tennessee (-2.5) at Texas A&M
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Tennessee is ranked five spots behind the Alabama team that they demolished less than a month ago. If they're not pissed, they should be.
Pick: Tennessee -2.5
New Mexico State at Missouri State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Aggies are better off with Trey Hedden taking snaps, but Henry Belin IV has changed the trajectory of the Bears.
Pick: Missouri State -1.5
Florida International at Delaware (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This should be higher. Much higher.
Pick: Delaware -5.5
(22) Missouri at (1) Georgia (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Does Missouri have anything left after what the refs did to them last weekend? I have doubts.
Pick: Georgia -15.5
Boston College at (5) Notre Dame (-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Do you know what happened the last time Notre Dame beat a No. 1 team from the state of Florida and then played Boston College the next week? I remember.
Boston College upsets #1 ranked Notre Dame in 1993’s edition of “The Holy War” #BC https://t.co/B6FnCevjj1
— The Get Back Coach (@TheGBCoach) April 13, 2022
There is no rhyme or reason for it, but I think Boston College shows up. They won't win, but 30 points is a lot.
Pick: Boston College +29.5
(18) USC at (9) Indiana (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line is down a point, and I'm loving it here. USC hasn't beaten a top-25 team on the road under Lincoln Riley. The struggles of the Trojans going east is old news by now. Curt Cignetti doesn't run his mouth, then shoot blanks.
Pick: Indiana -9.5
Baylor at (10) BYU (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Baylor has been a different team since firing Dave Aranda. This feels about a half-point too high.
Pick: Baylor +7.5
Michigan at (16) Oregon (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
It doesn't matter who is quarterbacking the Wolverines. The issues are so much deeper than that. It took Kyle Whittingham a full five years to get the Utah fan base to turn on him. It took three months at Michigan.
Pick: Oregon -11.5
Arizona State at Central Florida (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
With Alonza Barnett III back, this shouldn't be a problem.
Pick: Central Florida -3.5
California at Virginia (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If you shop around, you can find this at -10 with no juice. 10.5 has no juice anywhere. I know that the Virginia offense has struggled, but Cal has been dreadful on both sides of the ball. That half isn't even a deterrent right now.
Pick: Virginia -10.5
Florida Atlantic at Tulsa (-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This FAU team can score. Tulsa will get plenty of points as well, but I can't go against Caden Veltkamp and Easton Messer with the seasons they are having.
Pick: Florida Atlantic +5.5
Nevada (-7.5) at Northern Illinois
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Nope. Nevada still doesn't have a quarterback. NIU finally does. He'll find DeAree Rogers enough for an outright win.
Pick: Northern Illinois +7.5
Georgia Southern (-5.5) at Georgia State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Clean Old-Fashioned Hate is yesterday's news. Make room for Modern Day Hate! State never Southern! Southern never State! It's Modern Day Hate.
Yes, these teams really don't like each other. Southern has won three in a row, including a 17-point win in Atlanta in 2024. This is the series rubber match, as they are tied at six wins each. Three of Southern's wins have come in Atlanta.
Pick: Georgia Southern -5.5
Jacksonville State (-7.5) at Western Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like the half, but WKU has allowed 86 points in the last two games.
Pick: Jacksonville State -7.5
Middle Tennessee State at Liberty (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is no juice on the Liberty side. I get it. Roman Gagliano isn't making the mistakes that he did earlier in the season. I really have questions about this defense. I'll just lower the bet.
Pick: Liberty -21.5
Fresno State at Texas State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Did Fresno leave their defense in the valley? This line opened at a touchdown, and I kind of think it should have stayed there.
Pick: Fresno State +9.5
(19) Mississippi (-1.5) at Oklahoma
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This has been a weird line. Oklahoma opened as a four-point favorite, then the public slammed Ole Miss, and it hasn't stopped. Why? Kewan Lacy is out, and this line is still that far off.
I don't buy it. I know it's only one game, but Oklahoma ran the kind of offense with Jason Witten calling plays that they should have been running all season. Trinidad Chambliss is going to be a problem, but this line should have stayed with Oklahoma favored.
Pick: Oklahoma +1.5
Washington (-3.5) at Michigan State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Demond Williams Jr. was named the starter. Why? It has to be because they paid him so much money, right? Elijah Brown has been better. This has to favor the home team.
Pick: Michigan State +3.5
Southern Mississippi at Louisiana Tech (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Eagles beat the other two Louisiana teams, at least one of which is better than Tech. This is too many points.
Pick: Southern Mississippi +17.5
Kansas at West Virginia (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Kansas hasn't seen an offense anywhere close to this. The good news is that Kansas hasn't seen a defense like this either. I think I like the over 67.5 better, but West Virginia shouldn't lose this at home.
Pick: West Virginia -2.5
Oregon State at (24) Boise State (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is up TEN points with the news that Braden Atkinson likely won't play. Boise definitely has the upper hand at QB since the backup is nearly as good as the starter.
For the first time since 2010, College Gameday, ESPN's popular college football pregame show, is returning to Boise State as they host the Oregon State Beavers. ? in bio to learn more. https://t.co/TYZfb57WSu
— Idaho News 6 (@IdahoNews6) November 13, 2026
What we hoped would be a giant showdown outside of the major conferences could be a major letdown.
Pick: Boise State -14.5
Appalachian State (-1.5) at Marshall
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
October 29, 1988.
Before it became officially known as The Old Mountain Feud, Marshall and Appalachian State were already playing games worthy of the name.
Just one year after eliminating the Mountaineers in Boone on the way to the 1987 Division I-AA National Championship, the Herd defended home turf with a hard-fought 30-27 victory in Huntington.
John Gregory led the way, completing 23 of 39 passes for 309 yards and a touchdown—the most passing yards Appalachian State would allow all season. With All-Americans Mike Barber making plays through the air and Ron Darby powering the ground game throughout the season, the Herd had the offensive firepower to outlast one of the nation’s top I-AA programs.
When the game was on the line, freshman kicker Dewey Klein delivered. Klein led Marshall in scoring in 1988, setting school records with 19 field goals and 98 points by a kicker—marks that helped establish him as one of the greatest specialists in Herd history.
The victory helped propel Marshall to an 11-2 record, a share of the Southern Conference Championship, and another trip to the Division I-AA Playoffs. It was another defining chapter in one of the greatest rivalries in FCS history.
Give ’Em Hell, Herd. ??
#MarshallFootball #TheOldMountainFeud #MarshallHistory #GiveEmHellHerd #WeAreMarshall
@HerdFB @HerdNation @HerdFans_ @OldMountainFeud
— The B.C. ✝️ ? ? ?️ ? (@THEBC43) July 22, 2026
Here's another rivalry that you've likely never heard of, but this has been going on long before both teams joined FBS. The teams have split the last six meetings since both teams joined the Sun Belt.
App State hasn't won in Huntington since 1995. That predates the huge Michigan upset by 12 years. Does that streak end here? Vegas thinks so, and so do I.
Pick: Appalachian State -1.5
Florida at (11) Kentucky (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Kentucky isn't up among Alabama, Georgia, or Tennessee in the SEC hierarchy. That's okay. Nobody expected that in Year 1. They have beaten the teams they are supposed to beat. That's not changing here.
Pick: Kentucky -3.5
Louisville (-3.5) at North Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The North Carolina defense has played well lately, even against mighty Miami. Louisville demolished the bottom of the ACC coming into this one. Can they do it against a good team?
Pick: Louisville -3.5
Minnesota at Penn State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is funny. Minnesota only lost in Bloomington by a touchdown, and UCLA didn't pull away until the fourth quarter. Why in the world is Penn State favored by two scores?
Pick: Minnesota +9.5
San Jose State at Air Force (-11.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Air Force has already claimed the Commander-In-Chief Trophy for the first time since 2022. This is all just gravy. Liam who?
Pick: Air Force -11.5
Troy at South Alabama (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Sun Belt!
Fun Belt!!
Battle for the Belt!!!
Rivalry: South Alabama @ Troy
TONIGHT | 8PM ET | ESPN2 https://t.co/5Nnbt8zLl8— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) October 16, 2019
South Alabama has only won the Belt four times. Three times were in the first six years of the rivalry. Troy has won seven of the last eight, with USA's last win in Mobile in 2024.
This game went to overtime last year, and South Alabama likely should have won. They get revenge this year.
Pick: South Alabama -2.5
(2) Utah (-2.5) at (23) Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm all for Gameday going to schools off the beaten path, but they should have been in Tucson for this one. I was hoping that Utah was going to be a heavy favorite here so I could lay some on Arizona and feel good about it.
I think the game is likely within a touchdown, but I have a hard time seeing Arizona winning this.
Pick: Utah -2.5
(6) Texas at (21) LSU (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is creeping upward. It's Death Valley at night against a team that really hasn't looked good since the fourth quarter of the Ohio State game. I was going to smash LSU, but that line makes it harder to do.
This has the feel of LSU winning by a field goal or on a last-minute touchdown to make it 24-20.
Pick: LSU -4.5
Purdue at (15) Iowa (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'll smash the under 47.5. I'm not quite as confident in the spread.
Pick: Iowa -17.5
Stanford at Virginia Tech (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Until the Stanford defense comes anywhere close to the offense, I can't trust them...even though I really hate that half.
Pick: Virginia Tech -14.5
UNLV at New Mexico (-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jackson Arnold was benched last week during the game. Somehow, Alex Orji was worse...but the Rebels still won. That's how you become more than a two-touchdown dog to a team that has trouble scoring.
Pick: New Mexico -14.5
(17) South Carolina (-7.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Arkansas is hanging around with teams lately, but I'm still not a believer. I think it has more to do with the middle of the SEC being painfully average this year.
Pick: South Carolina -7.5
North Texas (-2.5) at UTSA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Oh, this is going to be a good one! There will be offense abound, but UTSA just doesn't lose at home.
Pick: UTSA +2.5
(12) Texas Tech at (25) Oklahoma State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The over 72.5 feels too low with the way these defenses have looked. I do think Oklahoma State wins this game, but I'm not sure it's by more than three. I feel like a Texas Tech win is more likely than the Pokes winning by a touchdown, so I'll hedge that way. I'm probably leaving this alone and betting the over.
Pick: Texas Tech +3.5
Utah State (-2.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Utah State defense is where San Diego State's was before Rob Aurich left for Nebraska.
Pick: Utah State -2.5
Wyoming (-8.5) at UTEP
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
UTEP might not score against this defense.
Pick: Wyoming -8.5
Colorado State at Washington State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
With the Colorado State defense, I believe it. This is tough because I also believe in Hauss Hejny.
Pick: Colorado State +9.5
North Dakota State (-6.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Hey, I've been to Fargo in November. It's (expletive) cold! NDSU will enjoy the thaw and show the Hawaii fans what a defense looks like.
Pick: North Dakota State -6.5
50 of my 67 picks are in the middle this week, but I do have three max bets this week. I guess last week made me a little braver.
More College Football Analysis
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
